In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are seven running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 8 Fantasy Rankings (as of Friday):
- Derrick Henry (1st)
- Alvin Kamara (2nd)
- Austin Ekeler (3rd)
- Darrell Henderson (9th)
- Leonard Fournette (15th)
- Elijah Mitchell (21st)
- Miles Sanders (24th in Sean Koerner’s rankings) and Kenneth Gainwell (18th in Chris Raybon’s rankings)
We’ll discuss why these seven are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Monday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Running Backs
Derrick Henry ($8.900 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel): Tennessee Titans (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Henry projects as one of the top running backs on a weekly basis. His volume is insane, having carried the ball 191 times through seven games, easily most in the league. Number two in carries Joe Mixon checks in at 123 carries. Henry’s 27+ carries per game has him on pace for the most ever in an NFL season. (Even if this year was the former 16 game schedule, Henry would be on pace for over 436 carries, with the all-time record being 416).
In DFS, where volume rules everything around me (V.R.E.A.M get the carries!), this obviously makes Henry a unique asset. He’s also seeing almost three targets per game this season, with his previous career-best being under two. We won’t confuse him with Christian McCaffrey anytime soon, but adding a few points from receptions — and opportunities to take one to the house doesn’t hurt. Oh yeah, he also threw a passing touchdown last week.
We are getting a bit of a discount on Henry this week, having disappointed in Week 7 (16.4 DraftKings points.) This is also a reaction to the matchup, with the Colts being the NFL’s top-rated rushing defense by DVOA and allowing a very strong -1.7 Opponent Plus/Minus to running backs.
The Titans are also slight underdogs, which is generally not when you want to pay up for backs with limited receiving work. However, since 2019 Henry has actually been better as a dog:
(Derrick Henry favorite/underdog splits since the start of 2019, per our Trends tool)
Forget the overall points. Look at the difference between consistency and upside. Henry is a safer bet as a favorite but has a better chance of breaking a big one as an underdog. (Our upside and consistency ratings factor salary into account, so getting an “upside” score is slightly easier when Henry is an underdog, as he tends to be cheaper).
This makes Henry slightly scarier for cash games this week, but an ideal tournament play, especially at the 10% Ownership Projection we currently have him projected at.
Henry is a much better deal on DraftKings, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating and leads one of our Pro Models.
Alvin Kamara ($8,700 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): New Orleans Saints (+4.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5 total)
Kamara leads two of our models, including the Cash Game Model on FanDuel, where he’s outright cheaper than he is on DraftKings.
It’s a difficult perceived matchup for Kamara, as teams have stayed away from the Buccaneers on the ground the past two seasons. However, that trend seems to be reversing a bit. The Bucs have a slightly positive (+0.6) Plus/Minus allowed to backs on the season, and they’ve allowed three team’s running backs to combine for at least 24.5 FanDuel points through seven games. They’re by no means a matchup we want to target, but I’m not so sure we need to avoid them at all costs either.
With Kamara getting more than 90% of the running back carries and 80% of the targets, the majority of that would go to him. The Saints are committed to feeding Kamara at a much higher rate than in past seasons, particularly as of late. Since Week 3, he’s getting at least 24 opportunities (carries + targets) in every game, with an average of 27.25.
It is possible the Saints scale Kamara back a bit this week. Michael Thomas is eligible to return (although he hasn’t practiced yet this week). New Orleans also traded for Kamara’s old running mate Mark Ingram this week, which should cut into his carry count. It’s also a short week for the Saints, who gave Kamara 30 touches on Monday against the Seahawks.
I’m viewing Kamara more as an upside piece this week. He trails only Henry in Ceiling Projection on FanDuel but is more than $2,000 cheaper. There are enough question marks surrounding him that cash games should be off the table.
Austin Ekeler ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) vs. New England Patriots (49.5 total)
Austin Ekeler is playing the Alvin Kamara role in this high-flying Chargers offense. Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi was previously the quarterbacks coach and one of the architects of the Saints offense and seems to be building a similar attack in Los Angeles. Ekeler has been a major beneficiary of that this season.
He’s averaging only 12 carries per game but biking that in with over five targets. Targets are worth more than carries, so that’s a good tradeoff to make. Ekeler also has seven total touchdowns over six games, proving again that we want to target backs in good offenses.
This is not a Patriots defense to avoid either. They rank 14th in DVOA against both the run and the pass. That has led to the Chargers being implied for one of the higher Vegas totals on the slate, boosting Ekeler’s touchdown equity.
Ekeler leads two of our DraftKings models — including the Tournament Model. He’s both relatively cheaper and more valuable there, thanks to full PPR scoring. Isn’t it nice when it works out like that?
Editor’s note: be sure to monitor Ekeler’s injury status. He was listed as questionable on Friday with a hip injury.
Darrel Henderson ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) Los Angeles Rams (-14.5) at. Houston Texans (48 total)
Seemingly everyone was talking up Henderson last week, myself included. The situation made perfect sense. Double-digit favorite, facing a bottom-10 rush defense, implied for one of the highest point totals on the slate. Henderson was in almost 40% of DraftKings lineups last week. Naturally, he had his worst scoring game of the year.
Everything said about Henderson last week also applies this week, except he’s $100 cheaper and projected for roughly 15% less ownership. While he’s not a sneaky play by any stretch, it’s the perfect time to get back on the bandwagon after such a high-profile letdown last time out.
The Rams had found themselves down 10 points within five minutes thanks to the trickeration of the Lions offense and special teams (two fake punts and an onside kick, all successful). The odds of that repeating itself this week are much lower. While the Lions offense isn’t good by any stretch, they’re lightyears ahead of Houston’s 32nd-ranked unit. The Texans are also about 8% worse in rush defense DVOA than the Lions, so we can expect a boost to Henderson’s efficiency.
If you liked Henderson last week — and 40% of you did — you should love him this week. Projections guru Sean Koerner does; he has Henderson as the leading running back in his DraftKings Model.
Leonard Fournette ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) at. New Orleans Saints
Believe it or not, Uncle Lenny is RB7 in PPR scoring this season. He started slow, sharing carries with Ronald Jones through the first few weeks. In weeks 1-3, Fournette averaged eight carries per game. Since then, 17.25, with a low of 12 (and at least four targets per game). The Bucs clearly trust Fournette, which means we should too.
The clear lead back in an offense averaging over 33 points per game is usually a lot more expensive than Fournette is this week. He’s exceeding salary-based expectations by almost 11 DraftKings points on average over the past four weeks. Despite that, his salary is slightly less than in Week 7. It’s a more difficult matchup (New Orleans ranks second in rush DVOA,) but it seems like he’ll end up closer to $7,000 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel on a weekly basis soon.
It’s not an ideal matchup, but Lenny makes a lot of sense for tournaments. His projected ownership should be reasonable, and his receiving work keeps him in the conversation despite facing a tough rush defense. Keep him to DraftKings though, he’s cheaper, and his passing game role makes him a better fit.
Elijah Mitchell ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Chicago Bears (39.5 total)
Mitchell has been the de facto starter in San Francisco this season since Raheem Mostert went down. Despite being drafted three rounds later than fellow rookie back Trey Sermon, Mitchell has out-touched Sermon 30-2 in the two games both were active. Sermon being a healthy scratch/DNP in Mitchell’s other two healthy games is a further encouraging sign.
Unfortunately, Mitchell is still ceding passing game work to JaMycal Hasty. As usual, it’s another messy backfield in a Shannahan-led offense. Mitchell scored over 19 DraftKings points twice in four healthy games, though, getting it done almost exclusively on the ground.
With the Niners favored against the Bears, rushing work will be more valuable this week. Jimmy Garoppolo (the expected starter at quarterback) combined for only 55 passing attempts in each of the 49ers wins this season (Trey Lance has yet to win a game as the starter.) With the Bears defense ranking 28th in adjusted line yards defensively, we’re checking both “volume” and “efficiency” boxes this week.
Mitchell is a far stronger play on FanDuel, where he holds a 92% Bargain Rating. His lack of passing involvement is less of a hindrance there as well. That’s where he leads one of our Pro Models.
Miles Sanders ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) and Kenneth Gainwell ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Detroit Lions (47.5 total)
Note: Sanders was placed on IR after this article was submitted. We decided to leave the write-up as is for you to see the thought process. An update on Gainwell will be included once our Player Models update.
I’d encourage you to check out our season-long rankings and note where Sanders and Gainwell are listed. Our rankings are a combination of Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s rankings. By looking at each ranker individually, you can tell who expects Sanders to play this week. Either way, we should have news before lock as the Eagles are playing in a 1 p.m. game.
With near-identical prices, the formula, in theory, is easy this week. Start Sanders if he’s active. Start Gainwell if he’s not. I don’t have any particular insight into whether or not Sanders will play.
Whichever back is the starter on Sunday is in a great situation, though. Given Jalen Hurts’s inconsistencies as a thrower (20th in adjusted net yards/pass attempt, which factors in sacks and interceptions), they’d like to keep the ball on the ground whenever possible, which should be the case with the Eagles as 3.5 point favorites this week against the winless Lions.
The Lions rank 23rd in adjusted line yards on defense and 21st in overall rushing DVOA. Combine that with plenty of positive game scripts for their opponents, and you end up with the third-highest Plus/Minus allowed to running backs on the slate. Their defense has also allowed three opposing teams to score over 40 DraftKings points on the season. With two more teams topping 30.
How To Handle Injury News
Note: Sanders was placed on IR after this article was submitted. We decided to leave the write-up as is for you to see the thought process. An update on Gainwell will be included once our Player Models update.
Philadelphia seemed re-committed to Sanders as a feature back early against the Raiders, feeding him six carries and a target in the 12 snaps he was on the field for. It’s possible he sees less than his standard workload if active, as he nurses an ankle injury. Gainwell, of course, would still cut in for his usual workload, but that had been minimal — two carries and five targets the prior two games.
If Sanders were to miss, Gainwell becomes a much better value on paper than Sanders is if active. Gainwell saw eight targets and five carries in relief of Sanders last week with the Eagles trailing. There’s some risk that Gainwell continues to be used only as a 3rd down and hurry-up offense back, though. Veteran Boston Scott saw seven carries last week and could fill Sanders’ role.
Regardless, our Cash Game Model has Sanders near the top on Sunday’s DraftKings slate. This clearly hinges on his health, but the matchup and his recent usage are too good to avoid. Hopefully, we get news that Sanders is a full go early on Sunday morning.
If you assume Gainwell takes over for all of Sanders’ work, he would then be the top option. I’m not so sure we can do that, but on paper, it makes sense. Gainwell could see his normal role, plus all of Sanders’.
We don’t currently have an ownership projection on Sanders but expect Gainwell to be under 10% on both sites. Anytime we are relying on the late news, we can anticipate a drop in ownership. Due to this, I prefer “Eagles running back” in tournaments, not cash games. It will take some late work to figure it out, but it could pay off.
Post injury news update: Gainwell now ranks 3rd in our Cash Game model on DraftKings. Our projections are giving Boston Scott roughly 45% of Philadelphia’s backfield production.
