In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Jalen Hurts
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Sam Ehlinger
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Jalen Hurts ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (43.5 total)
With some of the top dogs of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert off of the main slate, Jalen Hurts comes in with undoubtedly the highest floor and ceiling combination at the quarterback position. He’s averaged 25.6 DraftKings points per game on the year and has two games with 30-plus points.
Teams have started to blitz Hurts this year, and the results have been successful. He ranks 25th in EPA per dropback with a league-low 4.9 yards per target when blitzed. When not blitzed, Hurts is fifth in EPA per dropback and throws for 7.6 yards per target.
Pittsburgh hasn’t really looked to the blitz too much this season, but there’s a chance that they switch up their game plan against Hurts. The matchup appears advantageous. as Pittsburgh is allowing 7.5 yards per target, 12.4 yards per completion, and a 4.5% touchdown rate.
The Steelers have experience against dual-threat quarterbacks, having to have dealt with Lamar Jackson for the past few years. However, Hurts has the highest ceiling at the quarterback position this year, and he boasts one of the highest floors, showing why he leads our Cash Game Model
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Detroit Lions (51.5 total)
After missing a few games due to his concussion, Tua came back for Sunday Night’s showdown against the Steelers, throwing for 261 yards and a touchdown en route to 15.94 DraftKings points. He’s been a boom-or-bust option this year, with scores of 14.8, 43.86, 11.44, and 15.94 in the four games that he has started and completed.
He may be a guy that we simply have to play the matchups. Well, we have quite the matchup this week. Detroit has allowed a top-10 quarterback score in all six games so far, allowing a 67.2% completion percentage, 7.9 yards per attempt, and a 4.6% touchdown rate.
They also play man coverage on 60.6% of their snaps, which is a recipe for disaster against Miami’s lethal speed. When blitzed, Tua is sixth in EPA per dropback, eighth in yards per attempt, and fifth in touchdown rate. If Detroit is able to score in this game, Tua will surely have a defense he can carve up en route to a back-and-forth affair.
We’ve already seen him explode in a shootout environment, throwing for 469 yards and six touchdowns in Week 2 against Baltimore. His other three full games were low-scoring, slower games. A fast track may be all we need for Tua to reach fantasy goodness.
Tua is the second quarterback in Projected Plus/Minus on the week while ranking highly in Points/Salary as well. He also leads Chris Raybon’s Pro Model and our Tournament Model.
Sam Ehlinger ($4,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (-3) vs. Washington Commanders (39.5 total)
Indianapolis has taken the keys away from Matt Ryan and is turning to Sam Ehlinger to lead the way for the remainder of the season. Ryan has struggled this year, and having an immobile quarterback behind a struggling offensive line is a recipe for disaster. His arm isn’t what it used to be, so turning to Ehlinger and his mobility may be a smart move.
We don’t have much to work off of for Ehlinger at the NFL level, but he did run for 1,903 yards and 33 touchdowns as a four-year starter at Texas. He ran five times for 55 yards and three times for 71 yards and a touchdown in the past two preseasons. He also saw success through the air this year, completing 82.76% of his passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns.
The matchup is appetizing, as Washington is allowing the highest touchdown rate in the league at 6.2% and is allowing a hefty 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The Commanders are sixth in pressure rate and lead the league in hits per dropback, so Ehlinger might be under pressure for the majority of this contest.
The good news is that Ehlinger is extremely cheap, priced at the minimum for quarterbacks on both sites. Ehlinger leads Sean Koerner’s Pro Model and is the runaway leader in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Kyler Murray ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings (49 total)
Kyler Murray hasn’t really flashed the ceiling that we saw last season, but he has been fairly consistent. All of Murray’s games have fallen between 17 and 26 DraftKings points on the year. He had three games of 30+ DraftKings points on the year despite battling injuries throughout the year. One of those included his best performance of the season in Week 2 against these same Vikings. Murray threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns while running for 31 yards and a touchdown as well.
With most of the top quarterbacks off of the main slate, we’re starved for some ceiling potential at the quarterback position. Murray has been consistent this season, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him scrambling around and making crazy plays en route to 30+ DraftKings points.
Geno Smith ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. New York Giants (44.5 total)
Geno has posted back-to-back mediocre games after going on a rampage in Weeks 3 through 5. He completed 20-of-27 passes en route to 210 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s upset victory over the Chargers. Due to the style of defense New York is deploying, Geno could take advantage.
New York is blitzing on a league-high 42.8% of dropbacks and playing man coverage on 49.0% of passing plays. Against the blitz, Geno has completed 71.4% of his passes for 7.1 yards per attempt. When it comes to man coverage, Geno has cooked as well. He’s averaging 10.4 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns. DK Metcalf being out of the lineup definitely worsens Geno’s outlook, but he’s still a solid option this week.
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