Week 8 NFL DFS QB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.

In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

Caleb Williams ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

Williams entered the year as one of the most-hyped rookie QBs in recent memory, and while he got off to a slow start, he has basically lived up to expectations. He’s made some massive strides from an efficiency standpoint over his past three games, averaging 9.65 adjusted yards per attempt with seven touchdown passes and one interception. He’s also displayed just a hint of rushing upside, averaging right around 30 yards per game.

For fantasy purposes, Williams has scored at least 22.32 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. That includes at least 26.54 DraftKings points in two straight, culminating with 29.64 vs. the Jaguars in his last outing.

Williams is in another good spot for production this Sunday. He’s taking on the Commanders, who have been a friendly matchup so far this season. They’re 27th in pass defense EPA, and that number would likely be even worse if not for games vs. the Browns and Panthers.

Williams’ price tag has yet to reflect his increased production, especially at just $6,000 on DraftKings. He has the sixth-highest median projection in our NFL Models but just the 13th-highest salary at the position.

Jordan Love ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel)

Love has been a rollercoaster so far this season. He’s embraced the YOLO quarterback mentality, leading the league with an 8.6% touchdown rate and eight interceptions. The fact that he’s tied for the league lead in picks and tied for second in touchdown passes despite missing two games shows you just how aggressively he’s pushing the ball down the field. He’s averaging 8.9 air yards per attempt, which is the sixth-highest mark in football.

For fantasy purposes, the good far outweighs the bad. He’s had multiple touchdown passes in every game this season, and he’s had at least three in three of his past four outings. He’s had at least 16.96 DraftKings points in all five games this season, including two with at least 26.62.

That gives Love one of the safest floors at the position, and his ceiling is higher than usual this week. He’s taking on the Jaguars, who are returning to the US after spending the past two weeks in London. They’re dead last in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. The Packers are currently implied for 27 points in this matchup, which is the second-highest mark on the slate. Love has never had an implied team total above 26.25 prior to this week, so it’s one of the best matchups of his young career.

Love has gotten a bit pricy on FanDuel, but he’s a top-two quarterback in terms of median and ceiling projection.

---

Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

---

Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

Tua Tagovailoa ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

Tagovailoa is slated to return to the Dolphins’ lineup this week, and it’s hard not to get excited about him at this price tag. He was as high as $7,000 on DraftKings and $7,700 on FanDuel before getting injured, so his current numbers represent a significant decrease.

In Tua’s only full game this season, he finished with 21.62 DraftKings points on 338 passing yards and one touchdown. He still has one of the best groups of pass-catchers in football at his disposal, so he should pick up right where he left off.

That’s particularly true in this spot. Tagovailoa will be playing at home as a favorite before the weather gets too cold, which is where he’s historically done his best work. Removing the game where he got hurt vs. the Bills, Tagovailoa has scored at least 21.62 DraftKings points in six straight pre-December starts as a home favorite (per the Trends tool). The Cardinals are also an exploitable matchup, ranking 30th in pass defense EPA.

Add it all up, and this is the perfect spot to buy low on the Dolphins’ offense.

Jalen Hurts ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)

Hurts stands out as one of the strongest QB options this week per Sim Labs. He’s showing up in the optimal lineup simulations nearly 10% of the time on DraftKings, which is easily the top mark at the position. That figure increases to nearly 12% on FanDuel.

Hurts has not had his best fantasy season, but he remains one of the top rushing threats in football at the position. He’s averaging 10.5 carries per game, and he’s already punched in four touchdowns. His yardage total hasn’t been as great as in years past, but he remains one of the premier goal-line finishers in the league.

Perhaps this week’s matchup vs. the Bengals will be a breakout spot. The Bengals have been a disaster defensively for most of the year, though they have shown some improvement of late. Still, stopping the Giants and Browns is a lot different than slowing down the Eagles. Before their two most recent contests, the Bengals had surrendered at least 24 points in four straight games.

Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)

Is Jackson going to take home his third MVP award this season? It’s certainly possible. He’s now the betting favorite across the industry, and he’s having arguably the best season of his career as a passer. He leads the league with a ridiculous 10.2 adjusted yards per attempt while tossing 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions.

Of course, Jackson can also still do plenty of damage with his legs. He’s averaged 6.2 yards per carry so far this season, resulting in an average of 65 yards per game.

Jackson leads all players with an average of 25.7 fantasy points per game, and Baker Mayfield is the only quarterback within 5.5 points. Considering Mayfield just lost his top two pass-catchers, the gap between Jackson and the field at quarterback is as wide as in recent memory. He should always be the most expensive option at the position, yet Jackson is just the third-priciest option on FanDuel this week. Even against the Browns, that’s simply a mistake.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside

Kyler Murray ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)

Murray is another dynamic rushing threat at quarterback, but he’s priced at a significant discount to the top dual-threat fantasy QBs. That’s deserved given his production so far this season, but his ceiling remains as high as ever. He has at least 64 rushing yards and a touchdown in two of his past three games, so he simply needs a bit more production as a passer to reach the elite tier.

The Dolphins have been a tough matchup for opposing quarterbacks this season, but the return of Tagovailoa gives this game some shootout potential. The total sits at 46.5 points, while the spread is just 3.5. Murray has the fourth-highest optimal rate at the position on DraftKings, and he’s projected for less ownership than optimal across the industry.

Drake Maye ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)

Bo Nix will likely be the preferred option for those spending way down at the position in Week 8, but Maye is the preferred option for GPPs. He’s showing up in the optimal lineup at a significantly higher rate than Nix, and he’s projected for less ownership.

Maye might not be good enough to compete at the NFL level yet, but he’s been a strong source of fantasy production. He’s scored at least 20.84 DraftKings points in each of his first two outings. He should have lots of opportunities to throw for a team that figures to spend a lot of time playing from behind, and he also has excellent athleticism: His 4.55 40-yard dash time puts him in the 95th percentile at the position.

The Jets aren’t a good matchup on paper, but the Jets’ defense has not looked the same so far this season. They’re also dealing with a ton of injuries in their secondary, so it might not be as tough of a matchup as it seems.

Kirk Cousins ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)

The last time Cousins squared off with the Buccaneers, he threw for 509 yards and four touchdowns. That was only three weeks ago. The Falcons let Cousins throw 58 passes in that outing, resulting in a +18% Dropback Over Expectation.

If it ain’t broke, why fix it? The Buccaneers aren’t terrible against the pass, but they are slightly worse against the pass than the run. They’ve also allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Like Murray and Maye, Cousins is also showing up with lower projected ownership than his optimal lineup rate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.