- Josh Allen is among the best DFS quarterback options in Week 8, even if the game vs. the Dolphins is a blowout.
- Can we continue to trust Jalen Hurts as a DFS option even though he’s struggling as a real-life QB option?
- Billy Ward breaks down the QB position using the FantasyLabs tools and Player Models.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are two quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 8 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening):
- Josh Allen (1st)
- Sam Darnold (21st)
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-13.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (49.5 total)
Allen is the clear top choice across the board this week. With the exception of the Ryan Hodge model on DraftKings, Allen is the unanimous choice on both sites for Week 8. Keep in mind that these models don’t factor Projected Ownership into account this early in the week, so that could change if Allen projects to be the chalk.
And why shouldn’t he be? The Bills have the highest implied Vegas total on the slate this week. While the Bills are also huge favorites, this matchup has some sneaky upside for Allen. The Dolphins are 18th against the rush in DVOA but 26th against the pass. They also play at the fifth-quickest pace in the league, so overall play volume should be up.
On the other hand, the concern with quarterbacks in games like this is a lack of passing if they get out to a big lead. Last year, the Bills bucked that trend a bit, continuing to pass deep into games they were leading. That concern holds a little more weight this year, though. In the Bills’ two blowout wins (40-0 and 35-0), Allen is averaging only 19.34 points.
One of those games was against these same Dolphins, which is cause for further concern. However, that was the game in which Tua Tagovailoa was hurt, muddling the situation a bit. Playing with a backup quarterback is never optimal — playing with one who didn’t expect to play is worse.
Allen’s fantasy production likely hinges on whether or not the Dolphins offense can put up much of a fight this week. They should be better with Tua back (and playing fairly well.) Also (potentially) returning are top wide receivers, Will Fuller and Devante Parker. If rostering Allen for tournaments, bringing it back with one or both of them makes a lot of sense.
This is again a conditional probability exercise: What are the odds that Fuller or Parker have a great score, given that Allen did enough to win you a tournament? By rostering Allen, we’re assuming the latter part of the equation is true. I’d wager the answer to the question is pretty high.
We should still feel fine about Allen in cash games, however. Besides his passing work, Allen is also 14th in the NFL in red zone carries, regardless of position. Being able to score fantasy points in multiple ways provides a much stronger floor.
Personally, I expect the Dolphins offense will do enough to keep the Bills aggressive deeper into this game than in their first meeting. Perhaps not deep enough to post tournament-winning scores (at least at Allen’s salary), but enough to feel fine for cash games.
Allen leads all quarterbacks in Median Projection and salary this week on both sites.
Sam Darnold ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons (46 total)
While Darnold is priced very close to the top options on FanDuel, on DraftKings, it’s a different story. The value there is just too good to pass up — at least according to the Hodge Model, where Darnold is the top option.
This has the feel of a potential bounce-back spot for Darnold. He’s played exceptionally poorly the past few weeks — including getting benched last week against the Giants. That, of course, correlates strongly with Christian McCaffrey’s injury. While McCaffrey isn’t returning, the matchup is much better for Carolina than the past few.
While the Giants, Eagles, and Vikings (Carolina’s last three opponents) aren’t all great passing defenses, they’re all much better than the Falcons. Particularly the Vikings, who rank third in passing DVOA. The Eagles and Giants combine to boost their opponent’s passing production by about 20% — the Falcons are one of three teams north of 30%.
This is another situation where looking at the numbers behind DVOA (and other defensive metrics) is important. Rankings don’t tell the full picture. For anyone who remembers the great “defense doesn’t matter” debate of a couple of seasons back, this is part of the issue. In the middle of the range, defenses probably don’t matter for fantasy production. However, when you have a few outlier teams, they almost certainly do.
The Falcons are one such outlier this year, having given up at least 27 DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks through six games played. It’s not just because they faced great quarterbacks either — that list includes Tua Tagovailoa and Taylor Heinicke, both of whom had their best fantasy games of the year against Atlanta.
Naturally, our models reflect all of this information. We probably could’ve skipped all of the above and just mentioned this: Atlanta’s +4.6 Opponent Plus/Minus Allowed is the highest on the slate this week. Still, it’s interesting to get some context behind those data points.
Darnold also still has solid weaponry around him. DJ Moore is a top-10 fantasy receiver, and Robby Anderson is a legitimate deep threat. It’s not unreasonable to think Darnold finally connects on a few of those deep balls this week. He also brings some rushing upside.
His five rushing touchdowns through four weeks were obviously unsustainable, but the six attempts for 58 yards the last three weeks are due for some positive regression as well.
Darnold is scary for cash games this week, particularly with the looming threat of a benching. With obvious stacking and bring-back options, though, he makes a lot of sense for tournaments. Check back later in the week to see where Darnold ranks in our brand new Minimalist Tournament Model, which relies on ownership projections to identify tournament options.
Other Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside
Jalen Hurts ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Detroit Lions (47.5 total)
It feels like this is mentioned every week, but it continues to ring true: Hurts has never scored less than 21.8 DraftKings points as a full starter. He’s finally priced appropriately for a player with his floor and ceiling combination this week, with his $7,200 DraftKings salary being the highest mark of his career. Even so, he’s shown a high ceiling in his young career, with two games over 30 DraftKings points and one of them going past 40 (out of 10 games played wire-to-wire).
There aren’t many better situations for Hurts than this week, either. The Lions are playing fast (sixth fastest overall pace) and playing bad defense (27th DVOA). With starting running back Miles Sanders likely to miss, Hurts could be utilized even more than normal. Be sure to keep an eye on our news regarding Sanders’ health throughout the week.
The Lions should be able to do enough on offense to keep the Eagles aggressive throughout. The Eagles defense ranks 29th in DVOA against the rush, where the Lions are the strongest. While it’s possible the Lions don’t hold up their end of the bargain, that still likely means a solid day for Hurts as the eagles build a lead through his production.
Hurts is a better bargain on FanDuel, where he holds the slate’s second-best Ceiling Projection.
Matthew Stafford ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-14.5) at Houston Texans (48 total)
Stafford’s Rams have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, trailing only the Bills. They showed last week that Stafford can still have big games as large favorites. He put up over 30 DraftKings points in a similar situation against the Lions. The Rams — while not passing a ton in an absolute sense — do have the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation in the league.
That game required a lot of help from the Lions (by way of a brilliant high-variance game plan) to keep Stafford throwing. It seems less likely that Houston keeps up this week, but it’s still possible. Even if it’s not, The Rams are likely to stay aggressive throughout the first half — would a 28-0 lead through two quarters be surprising? We could see four Stafford touchdowns before the Rams let up.
Stafford trails only Josh Allen in Ceiling Projection on DraftKings.
Tom Brady ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) at New Orleans Saints (50.5 total)
While we’re on the topic of pass rate over expectation, the Bucs narrowly trail Kansas City for the league lead. Despite being 6-1 with a couple of lopsided wins, they’re passing at the second-highest absolute rate in the league. Brady is truly game script and matchup independent in this offense.
It’s not the easiest matchup with a top-three Saints defense, but that’s unlikely to hinder Brady much. He scored 31 DraftKings points against a similarly stout Rams defense in Week 2. Brady could also be getting old friend Rob Gronkowski back from injury this week, which would be a considerable boost. Gronk scored four touchdowns in his three active games this season.
Brady is fourth in our Ceiling projections this week.
Bonus Value Quarterback
Taylor Heinicke ($5,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) Washington Football Team (+3) at Denver Broncos (43 total)
Heinicke has gone over 20 DraftKings points in four of his six games as a starter this year. At his minuscule $5,300 salary on DraftKings, that would represent a points-per-dollar score of almost four, which would easily top our projections.
Speaking of, he trails only Josh Allen in Pts/Sal on DraftKings.
Denver’s defense no longer needs to be avoided. They rank 26th in overall DVOA, and their once-dominant pass rush ranks 21st in adjusted sack rate. They aren’t quite bad enough that we should be targeting them specifically, but at Heinicke’s price, they offer no reason to stay away either.
Heinicke probably won’t win you any tournaments — the Football Team is implied for only 20 points for a reason. But he’s a solid choice for cash games if trying to build around high-priced players at other positions. Heinicke is a solid alternative to Darnold if the latter signal-caller is too risky for your tastes.
