In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 7 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening):
- Davante Adams (1st)
- Tyreek Hill (3rd)
- Jakobi Meyers (17th)
- Van Jefferson (47th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Wide Receivers
Davante Adams ($9.000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-9.5) vs. Washington Football Team (49 total)
Adams continues to dominate receiving production in Green Bay. His 35.5% target share is the best in the league. He’s coming off a bit of a letdown game. He saw only five targets with Aaron Rodgers attempting an uncharacteristically-low 23 passes. Those numbers were season lows for both players.
There were extenuating circumstances, however. The Bears play at one of the slower paces in the league, ranking 28th in overall pace. The Packers were happy to match that pace too. Against the Bears’ run-funnel defense (sixth-best run defense, 23rd-best pass defense by DVOA), the Packers ran the ball on 57% of their plays.
This week sets up totally differently for Adams and the Pack. Washington’s defense is 12th against the run but 28th against the pass. The Football Team also plays at the sixth-fastest situation neutral pace in the league. More total plays? Check. Better pass play rate? (Discount) double-check. With 35% of those passes going to Adams against a soft pass defense, he’s in line for a monster game.
Ideally, we’re able to get Davante at significantly reduced rostership this week as well. He was fairly popular last week but let DFS players down. It’s hard to test this, but my intuition is that popular players who have bad games see a significant dip in ownership the following week.
Adams is the only receiver to lead at least one of our Pro Models on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s easier to get to on FanDuel, but his massive targets are a benefit on full-PPR DraftKings. Adams leads in both Median and Ceiling Projection on both sites this week. He’s also at or near the top of our Points/Salary projections, so the value is strong for cash games as well.
Tyreek Hill ($8,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans (55.5 total)
Tyreek leads three of our five Pro’s Models on FanDuel this week. He’s actually cheaper there 00 despite a bigger salary cap — than on DraftKings. Hill is tied for the league lead in receptions through six weeks and trails only Cooper Kupp in PPR scoring.
Hill is notoriously volatile. He has two games over 30 FanDuel points — and two in single digits. This makes him inherently hard to project on a week-to-week basis. This week could be a good one for a Tyreek explosion, though. He has seven career games over 30 FanDuel points. Five of those have come in games with a total of at least 50. (Those games make up 41 of the 84 Tyreek games tracked in our Trends tool)
Check out how he’s done overall on FanDuel in games that Vegas implies for 50+ points.
Games since the start of the 2018 season, when Patrick Mahomes became a full-time starter
His upside is tremendous, but the consistency is the concern. If the Cheifs get ahead with rushing touchdowns or through Travis Kelce, Hill has the capacity to disappoint. For that reason, he’s not a great cash game play. There are safer options in his price range.
However, nobody has the ability to blow a slate wide open like Hill. He’s a great choice for tournaments and shouldn’t come in with excessive rostership — both Adams and Cooper Kupp are similarly priced. Even though he’s a better FanDuel value, he should be considered on DraftKings as well. If he explodes for 40 or more points (as he’s done twice this year), does it really matter what his price is?
Rondale Moore ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-17.5) vs. Houston Texans (47 total)
Moore is our preferred cheap option on DraftKings, where he’s near the top in Pts/Sal. He also leads one of our Pro’s DraftKings Models.
Rondale is very interesting this week. He’s fourth among Cardinals wide receivers with 28 targets on the season. He also has an extremely low average depth of target (aDOT) of 2.5. This has two results: First, his catch rate is phenomenal; over 85% of his targets turn into catches. Second, he has to create yards on his own. Two hundred forty-three of his 286 receiving yards have come after the catch.
In theory, this raises Moore’s floor but lowers his ceiling. However, he has some routes to upside here. The Cardinals are the week’s biggest favorites, so he could get more work in relief of DeAndre Hopkins if the Cards rest their starters late.
He also is the Cardinals’ primary return man on both kicks and punts. The Texans will be punting a ton on Sunday, raising the odds Moore runs one back for a touchdown. This makes him an interesting stacking partner with the Cardinals defense since you’d get the points from Moore and the D/ST if he runs one back. The Cardinals defense is a strong play this week:
Compared to the Rams, the Cardinals have a better adjusted sack rate, better defensive DVOA, and their opponent is implied for less points this week. The Rams cost $5,000 on DraftKings — The Cardinals are $3,100
— Billy Ward (@Psychoward586) October 19, 2021
The odds of Moore running one back and the Cardinals D/ST being a top scorer are, of course, exceedingly slim. However, both are strong plays in their own right, and the combination is likely to be extremely low owned.
Moore is a bit thin for cash games, but his wide range of outcomes lends itself well to tournaments.
Other Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside
Cooper Kupp ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-16) vs. Detroit Lions (50 total)
Kupp has accounted for almost half (seven) of Stafford’s 16 passing touchdowns this season. With a slate-leading 33 point implied total, there should be plenty of touchdowns to go around this week. Detroit’s defense has no reasonable path to stopping Kupp — or anybody else on the Rams.
That’s the big concern with Kupp. Will they continue to feed their star wideout if the game gets out of hand early? Of course, it could get out of hand because of Kupp production, so I wouldn’t worry too much. Kupp is a better play on DraftKings, where he’s cheaper than both Adams and Hill.
DJ Moore ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at New York Giants (43 total)
DJ Moore is fourth in our Ceiling Projections, but at least $1300 cheaper than all of the receivers projected ahead of him. It’s a fairly soft matchup this week against a Giants team that has allowed 82 points the past two weeks. Without Christian McCaffrey, his touchdown equity is also a bit higher.
Moore has the best shot at challenging the Kupp/Hill/Adams triumvirate for the best fantasy score on the week. If his ownership projections come in lower than theirs, he’s a great play.
AJ Brown ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) and Julio Jones ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,900 Fanduel): Tennessee Titans (+5.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Passing attacks against the Chiefs are always in play. Kansas City has allowed three games of at least 40 points to opposing wide receiver units, with one of those going for 55. When that production is spread among three or four players, it’s nothing special. However, when both Brown and Jones are healthy, they should account for almost all of the receiver production for the Titans. I think 50-plus points at their combined $12,400 salary would be more than enough for a tournament-winning pace.
Marquise Brown ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (46.5 total)
Hollywood has at least one touchdown in four-of-six Ravens games this year. Both of the games without a score were the result of drops that would’ve been easy touchdowns. While there’s been enough this year that it’s beyond being a coincidence, drops are notoriously hard to predict. His usage continues to be good, and he’s averaging over 15 yards per catch. Had he held on to a couple of those scores, he’d likely be priced about $1,000 higher on DraftKings.
I like the Ravens passing attack, in general, this week (see my quarterback breakdown for more), and Brown leads the team in air yards. He’s also the WR7 in fantasy scoring on the season, but the WR16 in DraftKings salary this week. He’s more appropriately priced on FanDuel (WR8), so keep your exposure to DraftKings.
Value Wide Receivers
Mecole Hardman ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans (55.5 total)
On a slate with few great game environments, we want as much exposure to the Chiefs/Titans game as possible. Hardman lets you get there without breaking the bank. Plus, target hogs Hill and Travis Kelce are both dinged up. They both exited last week’s game with injured at some point. If either of them re-aggravates anything, Mecole is next up for looks in this explosive pass game. Virtually everyone in this game is viable this week, but Hardman is the cheapest option with a reasonable floor and ceiling.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (+16) at Los Angeles Rams (50 total)
We’re digging deep here, but St. Brown is one of the few available bodies left for Detroit. He leads all Detroit wide receivers in receptions with 24, but 18 of those have come over the past three games. The Lions will likely be trailing throughout the game Sunday, meaning they’ll be passing more than normal. If St. Brown gets the seven or eight targets he’s seen lately, he could pay off at his extremely cheap price. We’d need a touchdown or 100-yard game bonus for him to really pay off — neither of which is likely — but he can open up some salary, particularly in cash games. St. Brown is in the top-eight of our Points/Salary projections on DraftKings.
Van Jefferson ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel Los Angeles Rams (-16) vs. Detroit Lions (50 total)
Jefferson is discount Rondale Moore this week. The fourth option in the passing attack of a huge favorite, overall volume, is a concern. However, like Moore, he could see an expanded role if the starters in front of him get some time off on Sunday. Jefferson is averaging 4.5 targets per game so far this season. Those targets could also be more valuable than usual against the Lions’ sieve-like secondary. He’s far too expensive on FanDuel but makes for an interesting punt on DraftKings this week.
Rashod Bateman ($3.400 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (46.5 total)
I’m big on the Ravens’ passing game, in general, this week. With Cincinnati being such a heavy pass funnel, I’m anticipating more throws than usual. In Bateman’s NFL debut last week, he tied for the team lead with six targets (on 27 total pass attempts). Bateman’s share should increase as he gets more comfortable with the offense and up to game speed. Plus, more Lamar passing should mean more work for him, even if his role is the same. Bateman doesn’t need to do much to pay off his $3,400 salary on DraftKings. He’s the cheapest receiver I’d be comfortable playing this week.
