Yahooooo! There are only 10 games on the Yahoo main slate that begins at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday because the Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Vikings, Steelers, and Chargers are all on bye.
This piece highlights my top overall plays, values, and best tournament plays for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at each position while using our Player Models. I will specifically be referencing the Bales Model.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Quarterbacks
Top Play
Matthew Stafford ($31) vs.Detroit Lions
While I love Patrick Mahomes in his matchup with the Titans, Stafford is $9 cheaper and has just as good of a matchup. The Lions are 25th in pass defense DVOA, and the Rams have the highest implied total of 33 on the Vegas Dashboard. Mahomes has a higher raw projection according to the Player Model, but the Ceiling Projections are within two points of each other.
A similar template to last week’s 38-11 thrashing of the Giants could be in the works this week for the Rams. Both the run and pass games got busy and, while Stafford only threw 28 times for 251 yards, he still threw for four touchdowns. The Rams will likely be aggressive early on to put up points then ground and pound later in the game.
Top Value
Tua Tagovailoa ($26) vs. Atlanta Falcons
After missing three weeks due to injury, Tua went 33-of-47 for 329 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception while rushing three times for 22 yards last week against the Jaguars. Sure, it was the Jaguars with their league-worst pass defense DVOA, but the Falcons are 30th in that metric.
The opponent Plus/Minus is +5.8, which is the third-best on the slate. The Vegas Dashboard has the over/under at a healthy 48, with the Falcons implied for 25 points. That’s the key here because the Dolphins are 28th in offensive pace. Atlanta is ninth in pace, so if they put up points, then the Dolphins will have to be aggressive to keep up.
Top Tournament Play
Jared Goff ($21) at Los Angeles Rams
Writing this makes me want to vomit, but those make the best tournament plays. The Rams defense with Darrell Henderson will likely be a popular correlation play this week. And for a good reason, because the Rams are favored by 16 points, and the Lions aren’t particularly good at defense.
Goff also isn’t very good and has three games under 10 DraftKings points. That said, he’s attempted at least 35 passes in five of six games and has thrown 42 in one and 57 in the other. He should have an elevated passing rate in this one, and he did put up 338 yards and three touchdowns in the opening game against San Francisco. That was good for 29.92 DraftKings points.
Is this a likely outcome? Niet, but it’s within the range of outcomes, and the ownership should be in the 1% range.
Running Backs
Top Play
Darrell Henderson ($27) vs. Detroit Lions
Derrick Henry has the highest Floor and Ceiling Projection on the slate and has one of the best matchups for running backs. That said, the ownership is going to be massive, and the price tag is high at $40.
Henderson is $13 cheaper and isn’t too shabby of a play himself. He’s averaged a +5.99 Plus/Minus and exceeded point expectations 83% of the time. While he hasn’t exceeded 100 yards yet and has only one game with at least 20 carries, he has scored four rushing touchdowns and hasn’t been a zero in the passing game – one, five, six, one, and three targets. He also played on 82% of the snaps last week while Sony Michel was at only 18%. That was in a game that the Rams thoroughly dominated and controlled.
The Lions are 26th in rush defense DVOA, and with the Rams favored by 16 points, there should be plenty of opportunities for Henderson to provide those fantasy goodies.
Top Value
Josh Jacobs ($19) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I’m never excited about rostering Jacobs because of his lack of involvement in the passing game. That said, Philadelphia is 25th in rush defense DVOA, and the Raiders are favored by three points with an implied total of 25.75 points. Jacobs has rushed 16 and 15 times for 53 and 48 yards, respectively. He’s scored a touchdown in each of those games.
Top Tournament Play
Aaron Jones ($33) vs. Washington Football Team
Jones is at an interesting price point since Henry is $7 more expensive while Henderson is $6 cheaper. I think most will choose to either go up or down from Jones, especially since the workload hasn’t been all his. In addition, Rodgers and Adams will likely be the focus for a Packers team implied for 27.75 points against a Football Team that has had issues in the secondary.
That all said, Jones has the second-highest projection according to the Player Model, and the upside is always there. Back in Week 2, he carried 17 times for 67 yards and a touchdown while hauling in six targets for 48 yards and three touchdowns. That translated to 38.5 DraftKings points.
He will likely be very low-rostered.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
Tyreek Hill ($35) at Tennessee Titans
Davante Adams is also priced at $35, and I have no problems going there as well. I just like the game environment better for the Chiefs. The over/under of 57.5 is the highest on the slate, and the Chiefs are implied for 31 points.
The Titans are 27th in pass defense DVOA, and Hill has one of the highest ceilings at the position. In Week 1, he caught 11 of his 15 targets for 197 yards and a touchdown. Three weeks later, he hauled in 11 of 12 targets for 186 yards and three touchdowns.
Top Value
Jaylen Waddle ($16) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Waddle caught 10 of his 13 targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns last week. The production has been inconsistent on the season, but Tua’s injury probably had something to do with that. Back in Week 3, he caught 12 of 13 targets for 58 yards, so last week wasn’t a fluke in terms of targets.
This game has a healthy over/under of 47.5, with the Falcons implied for 25 points. They play at the ninth-fastest pace, so if they can put up points, that will force the Dolphins and their 28th fastest-paced offense to be aggressive.
Top Tournament Play
Calvin Ridley ($23) at Miami Dolphins
I wrote in the Waddle section why I like this game environment. Ridley missed Week 5, and the Falcons were on a bye last week, so maybe he’s out of the consciousness of many?
Regardless, he is just too cheap for his role. On the season, Ridley has garnered eight, 10, 11, and 13 targets. While he’s only scored one touchdown and has not exceeded 80 yards in a game, it’s only a matter of time before he breaks out.
Tight End
Top Play
Travis Kelce ($28) at Tennessee Titans
Is Kelce on the slate? Yes? Just play him. Easy peasy.
The Titans have been good against tight ends this season, as they are fourth in DVOA. That said, Kelce is not your normal tight end. He has seven, eight, 11, six, 10, and 11 targets on the season. He’s essentially a wide receiver.
Despite the high price tag. the Bargain Rating is still 91%.
Top Value
Ricky Seals-Jones ($15) vs. Green Bay Packers
Over the last three weeks, RSJ has played in 100%, 99%, and 93% of the snaps. He’s received four, eight, and six targets over that span. Last week against the Chiefs, he hauled in four receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown. This week, he gets a matchup against a Packers defense that is 26th in DVOA against tight ends.
The Vegas Dashboard has the over/under at 48, with the Packers favored by 7.5 points, so elevated passing could be in the works for the Football Team.
Top Tournament Play
Darren Waller ($21) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I’m not sure what the projected ownership will be for Waller. I’m thinking it will be lower than normal since he’s coming off a five reception on five targets for 59 yards game. Since the Week 1 explosion against the Ravens, when he caught 10 of 19 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown, Waller has not exceeded eight targets or 65 yards.
The price point is an interesting one as well since Mark Andrews is $1 cheaper while TJ Hockenson is $2 cheaper.
Waller can explode at any time, though, which makes him a good tournament play. Everything comes down to the projected ownership, though.
Defense
Top Play
New England Patriots ($21) vs. New York Jets
Bill Belichick against a rookie quarterback? Please and thank you. Fine, Davis Mills did carve up this defense two weeks ago, but Zach Wilson is no Davis Mills. What?! What a time to be alive. That said, the Patriots still sacked Mills three times and forced a fumble for 5 DraftKings points.
Wilson has thrown nine interceptions and been sacked 18 times this season. The Patriots are implied for 25 points and favored by seven points. There should be plenty of dropbacks for Wilson to provide fantasy goodies for the Patriots’ defense.
Top Value
Los Angeles Rams ($15) vs. Detroit Lions
The Rams are going to score a ton of points in this one. That should force more dropbacks for Goff, which means more chances for sacks and turnovers.
The Rams are seventh in pass rush according to PFF, while the Lions are 27th in pass blocking. Goff has thrown four interceptions and been sacked 15 times this season.
Tournament Play
Arizona Cardinals ($22) vs. Houston Texans
Most like to pay down at defense, so the ownership should be low for the Cardinals, especially when the Patriots are $1 cheaper and the Rams are $7 cheaper.
Arizona is third in both pass rush and coverage, according to PFF. They are fifth in adjusted sack rate. On the season, they have accumulated 17 sacks, seven fumbles, and six interceptions.
Mills threw 43 times in a 31-3 blowout loss last week, which is what we want to see again. The Cardinals are favored by a whopping 17.5 points, so a similar situation should be on the docket. On the season, Mills has thrown seven interceptions and been sacked 13 times.
