The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for Week 7.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Herbert vs. Seattle Seahawks – $7,200 on DraftKings, $8,100 on FanDuel
Without Josh Allen on the main slate, Justin Herbert projects for the highest ceiling in a Week 7 against the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle’s defense is ranked 22nd in overall DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and looks to be particularly weak in the passing game, ranking 26th in pass DVOA.
Herbert leads the Chargers, who are a 5-point home favorite in a matchup with a 50.5-point total, the highest on the slate. Expect the passing frequency to continue for Herbert and the Chargers, who this season have employed a 63%/37% pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz), which is the third-highest in the league and running plays at a 24.6 second-per-snap pace, which is the fastest in the league.
Per the Trends tool, when Herbert appears in matchups above a 50-point total, he averages 22.66 DraftKings points, with a +0.35 Plus/Minus and a 46.2% consistency rating.
Keep an eye on the status of the Chargers’ receiving corps, with questionable designations to Keenan Allen and Gerald Everett.
Looking at THE BLITZ, Lamar Jackson projects for the highest ceiling in an AFC North matchup with the Cleveland Browns. The Week 7 matchup looks appealing for Jackson, with the Browns ranking 31st in overall DVOA and 30th in rushing DVOA. The superstar dual-threat option should easily move the Ravens offense against the weak Browns defense and what should be a get-right spot after a Week 6 24-20 upset loss to the New York Giants where Jackson threw for 201 yards and one touchdown, also rushing for 77 yards and two fumbles. The most expensive quarterback on the slate, Jackson is certainly worth the pay-up, giving lineups a solid floor.
Top Value: Joe Burrow vs. Atlanta Falcons – $6,900 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
Joe Burrow projects as a top value option on DraftKings, given his discounted salary and ideal matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who rank as one of the weakest defenses, currently 29th in DVOA.
Burrow and the Bengals are a 6.5-point home favorite against the Falcons in a matchup with a 47.5-point total. The Bengals are the most pass-heavy team in the league, using a pass-heavy 61%/39% pass-to-run play-calling scheme and could easily move the ball down the field, facing a defense ranked 23rd in overall defense, according to PFF.
In a Week 6 30-26 shootout with the New Orleans Saints, Burrow threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns. Look for the third-year quarterback to primarily target a talented receiving corps in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and running back Joe Mixon, who should the primary share of targets. With a more affordable salary, facing a weak defense on paper, combined with extreme passing volume, Burrow easily become a salary relief option to unlock high-ceiling one-off plays.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Saquon Barkley vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $7,900 on DraftKings, $9,300 on FanDuel
Saquon Barkley projects for the highest ceiling among running backs in Week 7 in a less-than-ideal matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who rank ninth in rush DVOA. In what looks to be a comeback season for Barkley, the Giants’ lead back is averaging 19.8 rushing attempts per game for 5.18 yards per attempt.
Aside from the extreme volume in the running game, Barkley also appears to be a viable option in the Giants’ receiving corps, averaging 4.3 targets per game. Responsible for 52% of the Giants’ rushing share, Barkley rarely leaves the field, seeing 85% of the Giants’ snaps (per Fantasy Pros), which is the highest in the league.
Despite the more difficult matchup, look for Barkley to be a ceiling-outcome candidate, given the high workload and almost total involvement in the Giants’ offense, not to mention constant touchdown upside. In a Week 6 24-20 upset over the Baltimore Ravens, Barkley ran for 83 yards on 22 attempts, finding the end zone once.
Top Value: Josh Jacobs vs. Houston Texans – $6,500 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel
Josh Jacobs projects as a top value among running backs, facing a weaker Houston Texans defense ranked 29th in rush DVOA. Jacobs has firmly established himself as the lead rusher in the Raiders backfield, seeing a 79% target share of rushes, also playing an integral part in the red zone offense, accounting for 88% of their rushing attempts inside the 20.
This season, Jacobs is averaging 18.2 rushing attempts per game and 5.38 yards per carry. Coming off a Week 6 bye, Jacobs last played in a Monday Night 30-29 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, rushing 21 times for 154 yards and one touchdown.
Las Vegas comes in as a massive seven-point home favorite against the Texans in a matchup with a 45.5-point total and will likely rely on Jacobs to help close the game for the Raiders. Expect his volume to increase toward the end of the game if the Raiders are ahead, which should signal more fantasy relevance.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja’Marr Chase vs. Atlanta Falcons – $8,200 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Ja’Marr Chase projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers in Week 7 in what looks to be a prime matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. Chase looks to be the preferred first-look for quarterback Joe Burrow, responsible for 28% of the Bengals target share, averaging 10.5 targets per game and 12.2 yards per reception. In a Week 7 shootout against the New Orleans Saints, Chase caught seven passes for 132 yards, finding the end zone twice.
Aside from the volume, Chase remains the preferred target in the red zone, leading the team with 13 red zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds.
With first looks in a pass-heavy Bengals offense and touchdown upside, Chase immediately becomes a candidate to reach an 85th percentile outcome, despite the $8,200 salary on DraftKings, and can even be used as a bring-back with Falcons skill players in Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
Top Value: Tyler Lockett at Los Angeles Chargers – $5,800 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
With a discounted salary on both sites, Tyler Lockett again projects as a top value option this week at wide receiver, facing a Los Angeles Chargers defense ranked 11th in pass DVOA, a tough matchup for one of the leading members of the Seahawks receiving corps, responsible for 24% of the target share, splitting the first look with DK Metcalf.
Despite a more quiet outing in a 19-9 win over the Arizona Cardinals, where Lockett was targeted five times, catching two passes for 17 yards, look for the Seahawks wide receiver to be a consistent weapon, seeing six or more targets in four of the first six weeks.
With Geno Smith handling under-center duties, Lockett is averaging 7.5 targets per game and 12.4 yards per reception, and despite Metcalf seeing the lion’s share of end-zone targets, Lockett looks to be a consistent producer, either as a one-off play or paired with Chargers skill players in Mike Willams and Austin Ekeler as a bring-back.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce at San Francisco 49ers – $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce being on the main slate means he projects for the highest ceiling among tight ends in a prime matchup against the San Francisco 49er. Despite Buffalo ranking seventh in pass DVOA, Kelce is among the matchup-proof skill players in the league.
In the Week 7 24-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills, Kelce was targeted 10 times, catching eight passes for 108 yards. A favorite weapon for Patrick Mahomes, Kelce is responsible for 24% of the Chiefs’ target share as part of their pass-first 63%/37% pass-to-run playing calling scheme, also averaging 7.9 targets per game and 11.1 yards per reception
With the passing volume and touchdown upside, consider using Kelce on both sides of stacks for this matchup, and should be a popular option even with a high salary on both sites.
Top Value: Greg Dulcich vs. New York Jets – $2,500 on DraftKings, $4,000 on FanDuel
Denver Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich projects as a top value at tight end and should be a popular option, given his near-minimum salary on both sites. With the Broncos reportedly looking to move on from Albert Okwuegbunam, Dulcich looks to be the lead tight end for the Russell Wilson-led Broncos.
Making his season debut In the Week 6 19-16 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night, Dulcich was targeted three times, catching two passes for 44 yards and one touchdown. Even facing a more difficult defense in the New York Jets, who rank 15th in pass DVOA, Dulcich should remain a fantasy viable target, should the volume and big play upside continue.
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