The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayden Daniels vs. Carolina Panthers – $7,600 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Daniels stands out as the top ceiling play at quarterback this week. He has the highest salary of the QBs on the main slate on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind Josh Allen. He’s worth paying up for, though, according to the evenly-blended three-way aggregate projections of Sean Koerner’s, Chris Rayon’s, and THE BLITZ projections. We’ll use this strong aggregate throughout this post.
Daniels couldn’t quite pull out the win over Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week, but the rookie still exceeded salary-based expectations for the fourth straight week on DraftKings and the fifth time in his six NFL starts. He finished with 20.96 DraftKings points by throwing for a season-high 269 passing yards with two touchdowns and running for 22 yards on six carries. His rushing production this season has made him an elite option and gives him both a high ceiling and a high floor in every matchup.
This week, Daniels gets a great matchup against the Panthers, and his Commanders have the highest implied team total on the main slate, according to our Vegas Dashboard, which also shows that matchup has the highest over/under of the week. The Panthers have been especially generous to opposing QBs, allowing 231.2 passing yards per week and 12 passing touchdowns in six games.
Regardless of the game script, Daniels should have another productive day in this matchup since he can put up big points through the air or on the ground. He has been outstanding so far in his rookie year, and he should be able to continue that success this Sunday.
Top Value: Geno Smith at Atlanta Falcons – $5,800 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
The two primary value options to consider this week are Sam Darnold and Geno Smith. They rank 1-2 in Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregate projections this week on DraftKings and FanDuel. Smith edges out Darnold for the top spot and is significantly cheaper on DraftKings, where he’s under $6,000 and has a 67% Bargain Rating. Darnold also has a tougher matchup, so Smith gets the nod in this spot for me.
While Geno hasn’t piled up a ton of fantasy points, that’s mostly due to a lack of touchdowns. The yardage and attempts have definitely been there for him this season. He has averaged 41.8 pass attempts for 296.3 passing yards per game. He only has one passing touchdown in each game this season, though, which is why he’s only averaging 19.8 fantasy points per week.
If he gets some positive touchdown regression, he could be outstanding this week on the road in Atlanta, where this battle of the birds has the second-highest over/under on the slate. The Falcons rank in the middle of the pack against the pass this season but have given up five passing scores to opposing QBs in the last two weeks against the Bucs and Panthers. If Geno hits for multiple scores and keeps his volume up, he should be an excellent value play in Week 7.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyren Williams vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $8,100 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel
Even with Saquon Barkley in a potential revenge game against the Giants, Williams stands out as the top ceiling play this week, as he and the Rams come back from their bye week in a smash spot at home against the Raiders. Williams has the top ceiling projection at running back in the aggregate projections on both FanDuel and DraftKings and also ranks in the top four in Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Williams has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his five games this season, scoring seven touchdowns in five games and averaging 20.2 DraftKings points per contest. He had his first game with 100+ yards rushing this season in Week 5 before the bye week, totaling 19.5 DraftKings points.
Some weeks, he is definitely not the most efficient option and doesn’t break the most big plays, but the one thing that is consistent with Williams is his volume. He gets plenty of work from coach Sean McVay, especially near the goal line.
This week, that volume should pay off since the Raiders have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points in the NFL to opposing running backs. They have given up four running back touchdowns and an average of 110.8 rushing yards per week to the position in their six games this season. Najee Harris had a big game against them last week, and Williams should be able to find lanes to run in during this juicy Week 7 matchup.
His volume and consistency give him both a high ceiling and a high floor as the top pay-up play in the backfield this week.
Top Value: Chuba Hubbard at Washington Commanders – $6,500 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
Hubbard has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at running back this week on DraftKings, where he has an 83% Bargain Rating. He also ranks fourth in Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel where he still brings great upside but just costs a little more. He is the 14th-most-expensive running back expected to play on both sites this week, and he brings the upside to be one of the top producers overall and on a per-dollar basis.
The Panthers have been able to bring rookie Jonathan Brooks (knee) along slowly since Hubbard has been so effective. Even though Brooks’ 21-day practice window is open, it doesn’t look like the rookie will be ready for his debut this week. If Hubbard continues to hold the top spot in the backfield, he should be poised for another good week against the Commanders.
Hubbard has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight weeks, with at least four catches in each of those contests. In each of his last four, he has posted 90+ rushing yards and 15+ DraftKings points. He had a season-high 30.9 DraftKings points against the Raiders in Week 3 and brings a very high ceiling if the Panthers keep Sunday’s game close.
This week against the Commanders, Hubbard matches the second-most Pro Trends of all running backs behind only Williams.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Jefferson vs. Detroit Lions – $8,500 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
In the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jefferson has the top ceiling projection by over four DraftKings points and four FanDuel points. He is the most expensive receiver on both sites but worth paying up for if possible due to his high ceiling and history of production in this specific matchup.
Jefferson has found the end zone in four of his five games this year and has at least four catches in every contest. He had a season-high 14 targets in his most recent game before Minnesota’s bye week and should be fully recovered from quad and finger injuries that bothered him earlier this season.
In this matchup with his division-rival Lions, Jefferson has feasted throughout his career. In his eight games against Detroit, the star has caught 62 passes for 1,073 yards and three touchdowns. That’s an average of 7.8 catches for 134.1 yards per game. He has hit 100+ yards against them six times and even racked up 223 receiving yards in one of those contests. The fact that the Lions could also be without Carlton Davis (quad) could also be huge, leaving Detroit’s secondary short-handed against the dynamic superstar receiver.
Jefferson has 15+ DraftKings points in every game this year and brings the potential for a monster game if the game gets high-scoring. Detroit gave up seven catches to CeeDee Lamb last week and seven catches to DK Metcalf the week before, so Jefferson should have opportunities to post a big game again this Sunday.
Top Value: JuJu Smith-Schuster at San Francisco 49ers – $4,000 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel
Smith-Schuster is extremely under-priced on DraftKings, where his salary of only $4,000 is incredible after his big game before the Chiefs’ bye week. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in the aggregate projections on DraftKings, where he has a crazy 98% Bargain Rating.
Without Rashee Rice against the Saints, Smith-Schuster turned back the clock and hauled in seven catches for 130 yards and 23 DraftKings points. He led the team in receiving yards and finished second in both receptions and targets behind only Travis Kelce. Smith-Schuster may not have the deep, downfield breakaway speed that Xavier Worthy offers, but he is much more affordable and looks poised for enough volume to still offer outstanding upside.
Smith-Schuster did pop up on the Chiefs injury report as limited in Thursday’s practice due to a hamstring issue, so that’s definitely a status to monitor heading into his Week 7 matchup with the 49ers. San Francisco’s secondary has allowed an average of 10.5 catches for 150.7 receiving yards to wide receivers this season.
Even though he’s so cheap, JuJu can’t quite match Drake London, who has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, even though he isn’t a bargain play at his salary. Other value options to consider at receiver on DraftKings include Ray-Ray McCloud of the Falcons, Jerry Jeudy of the Browns, and Jalen Coker of the Panthers as a punt play. On FanDuel, Jeudy, Jakobi Meyers (if available), and Jaxson Smith-Njigba are also showing as good values in the projections.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce at San Francisco 49ers – $6,300 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
With more work coming his way without Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce should be poised to take off as the Chiefs come back from their bye week. He has the highest ceiling projection at the position in the aggregate on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is not even the highest-priced option on FanDuel.
In the game without Rice before the bye week, Kelce exceeded salary-based expectations for the second straight week. He had seven and nine catches in the last two games and posted over 15 fantasy points in each contest.
The 49ers have given up seven and eight catches to opposing tight ends in the last two weeks and two tight end touchdowns in the last three weeks. With the Chiefs’ shortage of playmakers, Kelce and Smith-Schuster are both almost certain to get volume, giving them good upside and relatively low risk in the late game.
Top Value: David Njoku vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $4,100 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel
Njoku has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends on DraftKings while Kelce takes the top spot on FanDuel, with Njoku bringing the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the options under $7,000.
Part of the reason the veteran tight end is popping in the projections is that target-magnet Amari Cooper was traded to the Bills in the middle of the week. While Jerry Jeudy will likely get added work at wide receiver, Njoku’s volume should make him a top-five tight end for the rest of the season as long as Deshaun Watson cooperates.
In his first fully healthy game of the year, Njoku caught five of his season-high seven targets and racked up 31 yards and 8.1 fantasy points. He should get plenty of work his way this week, and getting him at barely over $4,000 is a great way to grab value at the position so you can target stars in other spots.
