The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 7 NFL slate. We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $7,400 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
For the second consecutive week, Lamar Jackson projects for the highest ceiling, even in a matchup against a Cincinnati Bengals defense ranked fifth in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. A dual-threat option in both the passing and rushing game for the Ravens, Jackson should look to bounce back from a 13.78 DraftKings point performance against the Rams in Week 6.
Per the Trends tool, when Jackson is at home in matchups above a 46.5-point total, he averages 27.55 actual DraftKings points, with a +4.41 Plus/Minus with a 66% consistency. With the Ravens using a balanced 53%/47% pass-to-run play calling script, look for Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews to again see the bulk of targets for the Ravens, with both weapons responsible for a 23% target share.
Jackson’s versatility alone gives him the possibility of being essentially matchup-proof, having the potential to reach a 75th-percentile outcome.
Top Value: Matt Ryan vs. Miami Dolphins – $5,700 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
Matt Ryan looks to be a salary relief option against a dreadful Miami Dolphins pass defense, which ranks 26th in pass DVOA. Atlanta calls passing plays at the third-highest rate in the league, averaging 46 plays per game, according to the RotoViz Pace and Snap tool.
Dating back to last season, Ryan has a solid correlation to his wide receivers and tight ends, seeing a 0.37 and 0.54 correlation coefficient to both positions. Look for wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who is likely to return healthy after a Week 6 bye, and rookie tight end Kyle Pitts to see the bulk of targets from Ryan. Pitts specifically has been targeted more than nine times in the last two weeks and looks to be an excellent stacking option, especially with a $5,900 price tag on Draftkings.
Top Rostered: Jalen Hurts vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $6,900 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
Lamar Jackson looks to be the most rostered quarterback on DraftKings this week, but Jalen Hurts is not far behind, currently projected as the second-most popular option at 12.3%. Like Jackson, Hurts benefits from his dual-threat play-making abilities in both the pass and run game.
The Week 7 matchup looks to benefit Hurts, facing a more mediocre Raiders’ defense, which ranks 15th in DVOA. Hurts also benefits from a discount in the receiving corps with wide receivers DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor, priced at $5,400 and $3,800, respectively, giving access to Raiders tight end and primary weapon Darren Waller as a bring-back correlation piece.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Derrick Henry vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $9,200 on DraftKings, $11,000 on FanDuel
You might have heard this warning before: Fade Derrick Henry at your own risk.
Facing Buffalo Bills, the top defense in the league Monday night, Henry rushed for 143 yards on 20 carries, scoring three touchdowns. Not only is Henry a threat in the running game, but Henry was also targeted three times, catching two passes for 13 yards.
The Week 7 matchup against the Chiefs is a prime spot for the matchup-proof running back to reach a 75th-percentile outcome, facing a defense that ranks last in DVOA. In the highest-total game on the slate, at 57.5-points, expect Henry to play a significant role in moving the Titans’ offense forward, staying on the field for 70% of the Titans’ snaps (per the FantasyPros Snap Count tool).
Top Value: D’Andre Swift vs. Los Angeles Rams – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
D’Andre Swift looks to be the lead producer in the offense, seeing an 18% target share, which is second only behind tight end T.J. Hockenson and leads the Lions’ backfield with a 47% share of carries. Given his versatility in the offense, Swift can reach fantasy relevance purely on volume alone, despite a difficult matchup against a Rams defense ranked fourth in DVOA.
In every game this season, Swift has seen five or more targets and could provide rosters with an interesting bring-back correlation to the high-powered Rams’ weapons of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee.
Top Rostered: Darrell Henderson vs. Los Angeles Rams – $6,600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
D’Andre Swift looks to be the most popular option at running back this week. However, his counterpart on the Rams, running back Darrell Henderson, should also be a popular option, seeing 24% projected ownership. Despite missing one game due to injury, Henderson leads the Rams backfield in carries, responsible for a 58% share of carries. The Week 7 matchup should benefit Henderson’s production, facing a Lions’ defense ranked 26th in rush DVOA.
The Rams are also a massive 16-point home favorite against the winless Lions, which should increase their balanced 57%/43% pass-to-run play-calling scheme to benefit a more run-heavy approach, especially in a likely blowout.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Davante Adams vs. Washington Football Team – $8,900 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Davante Adams projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers this week and has extreme potential to reach a 75th-percentile outcome, facing a Washington Football Team that ranks 29th in defensive DVOA. The preferred target from quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Adams has been targeted at least five times in the first six games of the season, averaging 14.5 yards per reception, benefitting from a 0.14 correlation.
Look for Adams to also find production in the red zone. This year, Adams has been targeted in the red zone seven times, tied for fifth among all pass-catchers (per AddMoreFunds). Given the expected high target share and high-play upside, Adams is likely to produce a ceiling game, almost exclusively on targets and likelihood of reaching the receiving bonus on DraftKings.
Top Value: Sterling Shepard vs. Carolina Panthers – $5,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
With wide receivers Kadarius Toney, Darius Slayton, and Kenny Golladay either questionable or unlikely to play in a Week 7 matchup against the Carolina Panthers, expect the bulk of production from the Giants receiving corps to go toward Sterling Shepard. Shepard is the leader in target share on the Giants, seeing a 23% target share, coming off a 14 target, 10 reception performance in Week 6. Appearing in four games this year, Shepard has been targeted nine times in three games.
The Week 7 matchup against Carolina is less-than-ideal, facing a defense ranked eighth in DVOA. However, with the Giants currently, 2.5-point underdogs, expect quarterback Daniel Jones to rely on the pass-heavy 61%/39% pass-to-run split to keep the game close, signaling Shepard as the de facto stacking option and should reach fantasy relevance on projected volume alone.
Top Rostered: Cooper Kupp vs. Detroit Lions – $8,400 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
Cooper Kupp has had a breakout after the first six weeks of the season, catching 46 passes for 653 yards and seven touchdowns, leading the league. Facing a weak New York Giants defense, which ranks 25th in DVOA, Kupp caught nine passes for 130 yards and two touchdowns and should have a similar matchup against a Lions defense ranked 27th in DVOA.
In an ideal matchup, Kupp looks to be the most popular option at wide receiver this week, projected for 23% ownership. As the preferred target for quarterback Matthew Stafford, seeing 34% of the target share, Kupp has been targeted at least 10 times in each game this year. Despite the popularity, Kupp remains an option to consider and could easily give a slate-breaking performance.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Tennessee Titans – $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Even with reports indicating Travis Kelce may be banged up, suffering an arm and neck injury, our models project him for the highest ceiling in a Week 7 matchup against the Tennessee Titans. With a game total of 57.5-points, the matchup screams shootout, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs receiving corps facing a Titans defense ranked 28th in DVOA.
In the ideal matchup, Kelce should see production as one of the primary weapons in the Chiefs offense and is second in target share at 23%, only behind wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Kansas City prefers to air the ball as part of their pass-heavy 63%/37% pass-to-run split, and as a result, Kelce has been targeted at least 10 times in three of the six games this season. Seeing five targets in the red zone also makes Kelce a threat for touchdown upside, further increasing his chance of reaching a 75th-percentile outcome.
Top Value: Ricky Seals-Jones vs. Green Bay Packers – $3,700 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
With tight end Logan Thomas remaining on injured reserve, Ricky Seals-Jones continues to see production in the Washington Football Team’s offense. Seals-Jones has been targeted at least five times in two games without Thomas, catching nine passes for 99 yards and one touchdown, and is second in target share with 17% of the looks from quarterback Taylor Heinicke behind primary weapon Terry McLaurin.
Seals-Jones is priced up $700 from last week and has a similar matchup facing a Green Bay Packers defense ranked 23rd in DVOA. Given the discount at tight end, Seals-Jones can reach fantasy relevance on volume and is easily stackable with Davante Adams as part of a complete game stack or in mini-correlations.
Top Rostered: Dallas Goedert vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $4,600 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
With tight end Zach Ertz traded to Arizona, Dallas Goedert is the new number one and should easily slot into the Eagles receiving corps. With Ertz seeing 21% of the Eagles’ target share through the first six weeks, expect more production to go Goedert’s way, an untick from his 9% target share.
At 14% projected ownership, Goedert is the most popular choice at tight end this week, which can be attributed to the increase in targets, facing a mediocre Las Vegas Raiders defense ranked 15th in DVOA.
