Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
David Njoku ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
The Browns’ offense hasn’t provided much fantasy value this season. DeShaun Watson is playing like one of the worst quarterbacks in football, which hasn’t given his pass-catchers many opportunities to shine. Njoku has missed three games this season, but he’s still just the No. 23 tight end in terms of PPR points per game.
However, with Amari Cooper traded to Buffalo, there are a ton of opportunities up for grabs moving forward. Cooper has racked up a 27% target share, 47% air yards share, and 38% end zone share so far this season.
Njoku already filled a pretty large role for the Browns last week, racking up 32% of the team’s targets vs. the Eagles. He did that despite being in the pattern for just 67% of the team’s passing plays, and that number has the potential to grow moving forward.
Finally, the matchup vs. the Bengals is a good one. Cincinnati’s defense has been exploited all season, and they’re 24th in pass defense EPA for the year. They’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, so it’s an amazing spot for Njoku to get on the board.
Grant Calcaterra ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
Finding a cheap source of production is a popular strategy at tight end in cash games. Calcaterra fits that bill on DraftKings. He’s not particularly appealing at $5,200 on FanDuel – you could get someone like Njoku for just $100 more – but using a $3,200 player on DraftKings opens up a lot of flexibility with the rest of your lineup.
Calcaterra isn’t the Eagles’ typical starter at TE, but he took advantage of an injury to Dallas Goedert last week. He had an 89% route participation vs. the Browns, which is an elite figure. Only three tight ends have a route participation of greater than 85% for the year, and Travis Kelce leads the pack at 87%.
Calcaterra also wasn’t just out there for cardio. He had a 17% target share, and he caught four passes for 67 yards. I wouldn’t expect him to average more than 16 yards per catch most weeks, but he should be able to make up for it with a few additional targets. Jalen Hurts only threw 25 passes last week, but he had at least 30 in each of his four previous games.
Try out our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Theo Johnson ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)
Johnson is another cheap option to consider at the position. His role with the Giants continues to grow, and he’s had a route participation of 80% in back-to-back games. He’s yet to turn that into any tangible production, but he’s on the field far more than his current salary suggests.
Johnson has also had a target share of at least 12% in back-to-back games, though those were without Malik Nabers. Regardless, his stock is on the rise.
Dalton Kincaid ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
The Bills have been pretty disappointing from a fantasy perspective this season. Their offense is still producing, but they’ve been way more run-heavy and slow-paced than we’ve seen in years past. Specifically, the passing game has suffered, averaging the second-fewest attempts per game.
However, when the Bills have taken to the air, Kincaid has been their top target. He’s had a target share of at least 23% in four of his past five games, culminating with a 30% mark last week vs. the Jets. That’s largely what we expected for Kincaid this offseason when he was routinely drafted as one of the top tight ends off the board.
The Bills might have to throw the ball a bit more this week. The Titans have an excellent run defense – they’re No. 5 in rush defense EPA – but they’ve been exploited through the air. Buffalo could have a lot of success if they choose to air it out, and their 25.25-point implied team total is tied for the fifth-highest mark on the slate.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
Sam LaPorta ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Speaking of run-heavy teams, the Lions are another squad that has relied very heavily on their ground attack this season. Jared Goff has thrown the ball 28 times or less in four of five games, including 25 throws or fewer in three straight.
Like Kincaid, that has had an adverse effect on LaPorta. He has been unable to duplicate his success from last year, which had him finish as the No. 1 TE in fantasy as a rookie.
LaPorta did manage to find the end zone for a long touchdown last week, but it was on his only target of the game. Somehow, he still managed to finish with a negative Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
However, Sim Labs remains undeterred. LaPorta is showing up as one of the most undervalued options at the position, particularly on DraftKings. He’s projected for roughly 6% ownership, but his optimal rate is closer to 9%.
Travis Kelce ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
Kelce is officially back. It took some injuries, but Kelce has looked like the best version of himself over the past two weeks. He has 19 total targets over that time frame – good for a 33% share – and he’s responded with 16 catches for 159 yards. The only thing he hasn’t done is score a touchdown.
Kelce is back to being the most expensive tight end on DraftKings, but it’s hard to say he doesn’t deserve it. He leads the position in terms of ceiling projection, but he’s projected for just single-digit ownership.
Dalton Schultz ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
The Texans are currently without top receiver Nico Collins, which opens up some additional opportunities for the rest of their pass catchers. Schultz took full advantage of that last week, finishing with eight targets vs. the Patriots. He only managed four grabs for 27 yards, but his 28% target share is a very encouraging sign for his prospects moving forward.
The Texans could be forced to air the ball out a bit more this week. They’re small underdogs against the Packers, who have the potential to put up points in bunches. The total on that game sits at 48.0 points, so there’s upside for scoring on both sides.
