In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 7 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday evening):
- Travis Kelce (1st)
- Darren Waller (2nd)
- Dallas Goedert (8th)
- Jonnu Smith (24th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models and take a look at some other tight ends who could help you win a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Monday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
Travis Kelce ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans (57.5)
Travis Kelce has so thoroughly dominated the tight end position the past few years that his 17.9 DraftKings point performance last week (at 35% rostership) feels like a letdown. That disappointing performance is still more points than any other tight end is averaging on the season.
It’s hard to find a fair price for a player whose mediocre games would be explosions for any other player at the position. Kelce has ranged everywhere from $7,000 to $8,500 this season and is at the lower end of that range in Week 6. He’s still the most expensive tight end on both sites, but the gap between Kelce and everyone else should probably be larger.
Especially this week, where Kelce’s Chiefs are playing in the game with the highest Vegas total on the slate. With Kelce leading all tight ends in target share on the year, we can bank on a large chunk of that scoring to flow through Zeus.
We’ve looked at similar Trends for teammates Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. Here’s how Kelce has performed in games where the total increased from open (this one started at 56.5):
Since 2018, when Patrick Mahomes became a full-time starter.
This is a trend worth following. Fifteen of Kelce’s 49 games in this sample fit the criteria, and he scores almost six extra points in those games. We want to follow sharp betting action — and it’s telling us to invest in the Chiefs offense this week.
Kelce, as always, leads our Models in Median and Ceiling Projection on both sites. He also is the leader in three of our Pro Models on DraftKings, more than any other player.
Darren Waller ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-3) vs Philadelphia Eagles (49.5 total)
Waller’s price is reasonably close to Kelce on DraftKings at only $900 less. On FanDuel, though, he’s $1400 cheaper. This discrepancy explains why Waller is the unanimous best choice in all of our Pro Models this week.
Waller has actually been somewhat quiet since his Week 1 explosion. He drew 19 targets that week, and less than seven per game since. Even after his quiet stretch, he’s still tied with Kelce for the positional lead in tight end targets.
Waller has the best chance of any non-Kelce players to end up as the highest scoring tight end on a weekly basis. Last season, he had four games above 20 FanDuel points — one of those being 38.5 points Kelce’s best game in that stretch was 23.6 points. It seems like every so often, the Raiders decide that Waller is the offense for the week, and he’s due for one of them this week.
The matchup sets up well too. The Eagles are one of the five worst teams in Opponent Plus/Minus Allowed on the slate, and this game has the third-highest total. The Eagles also play at the league’s second-fastest pace. While it’s impossible to definitively call Waller’s blowup games, this seems like it could be one of them.
Waller is our best Pts/Sal play on FanDuel this week, where he trails only Kelce in Median and Ceiling Projections.
Dallas Goedert ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Las Vegas Raiders (49.5 total)
Goedert snuck past Kelce to lead one of our DraftKings Pro Models this week. Finally, out of the shadow of Zach Ertz (traded to Arizona). This will be Goedert’s first game without Ertz, but the two combined for 50 targets through six games, most of which should now go to Goedert.
Last season, Goedert shined without Ertz. During three fully healthy Ertz-less games last season, Goedert averaged over 15 DraftKings points per game. That production should continue into this season.
If he’s able to perform as anticipated, we’ll probably see Goeddert up around $6,000 on DraftKings within a few weeks. He’s a great deal as it stands now. While he leads one of our models on DraftKings, Goedert is fine on FanDuel as well.
He’s among the top three in Pts/Sal on both sites.
Jonnu Smith ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): New England Patriots (-7.5) vs. New York Jets (43 total)
Jonnu stands out at the bottom end of tight ends this week, coming in near the DraftKings floor of $2,500. With the Patriots featuring two tight ends, neither is ever a top option. However, Smith is $1,300 cheaper than Hunter Henry on DraftKings, despite seeing only three fewer targets on the year. This pricing would lead you to believe Smith is a backup, but it’s really a timeshare.
Jonnu isn’t going to light the boxscore on fire. His best game this year was only 10.4 DraftKings points. However, at his salary, that represents a Pts/Sal score of almost 4.0. It wouldn’t take a lot to feel good about rolling with Smith.
My preferred strategy on DraftKings is to pay up for one of the top tight ends or punt the position entirely with players like Jonnu. If Smith is able to find the end zone, it’s exceedingly difficult for the $6,000 and up crowd to keep up with him on a salary-considered basis. As we know, touchdowns are fluky. Jonnu only scored once so far this year — which is the same number Kyle Pitts and Mike Geiscki have.
Jonnu leads one of our Pro Models on DraftKings. The delta between his salary and the stronger options on FanDuel is too small for him to be a reasonable play.
He’s mostly a GPP dart throw if you need the salary relief.
Other Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside
Mark Andrews ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals (46.5 total)
This year, Andrews is the TE2 in PPR scoring, and he’s much closer to the top spot (Kelce) than he is to No. 3 (Waller). However, he’s priced well below both Kelce and Waller on DraftKings (he’s more expensive than Waller on FanDuel). Most of Andrews’ scoring came in a 44 point explosion in Week 5, but he’s scored double-digit points every week except Week 1. He’s similar to, or better than, Waller in receptions, target share, and yards this season.
At $700 less on DraftKings, he’s easily preferable.
TJ Hockenson ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (+16) at Los Angeles Rams (50 total)
Hockenson has been the definition of boom or bust this season. After opening the season with consecutive games with 20 DraftKings points, he averaged just over five the next three weeks. Last week, he returned to form with 15.4. Hockenson has dealt with injuries since the start of that period, so it could possibly be explained by a return to health. Either way, he leads the Lions in targets this season, which is always notable for a tight end.
Personally, I prefer to avoid the mid-range at tight end. They’re just as volatile as the cheaper options for the most part. However, Hockenson is one of the few players at the position with the workload to challenge for the best score on a weekly basis. It’s a difficult matchup, but the Lions will be throwing a ton as massive underdogs.
Hockenson is their best bet at moving the ball.
Kyle Pitts ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins (47.5 total)
Rookie tight ends are notorious for struggling early on, and Pitts has been no different. He averaged just over 7.5 DraftKings points per game through five weeks. Then Week 6 happened. Pitts exploded for a 9/119/1 line (29.9 DraftKings points).
While there’s a chance this was just variance, it could also be a sign of things to come for Pitts. He wasn’t drafted fourth overall to be a role player. Pitts leads all tight ends in his share of his team’s air yards. While he won’t approach 30 DraftKings points every week, but it will certainly happen again.
I’d prefer to have him in my lineup at a reasonable price when it does.
Value Tight End
Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Washington Football Team (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers (49 total)
RSJ was super chalky last week (over 60% in most of my cash games), but he got there. He turned six targets into four catches for 58 yards and Washington’s only score. Taylor Heinicke has a minuscule 7.97 intended air yards per pass, so tight ends will always draw a lot of looks from him.
Seals-Jones has played all but one snap the past two weeks (with Logan Thomas out), and $3,700 on DraftKings is still too cheap for 100% of the tight end action in this high-total game.
