I started playing DFS on DraftStreet in 2013. For the next six years, I primarily played cash games because I was in love with the slow, methodical grind, along with the safety that comes from playing a format where you only have to beat one other person or roughly half the field if you’re in 50/50s or double-ups.
Nowadays, I’ve decided to pull the ripcord on the safety net so that I could seek out more upside.
The hardest part of switching to GPP only? Getting comfortable with losing … a lot more often. However, with proper game selection and bankroll management, all you need is one or two nice scores to be in the black when the season ends.
And when you’re mainly targeting small-field GPPs, your lineups don’t need to be as perfect compared to when you’re entering these larger fields. Personally, I consider a small field as a tournament with 500 or fewer people, but some DFS players may have a broader definition.
And typically, I am playing in tournaments with 300 or fewer people.
Anyway, each week I’ll be using our extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools and the FantasyLabs Player Models to discuss my overall strategy for how I’m attacking these smaller fields.
Additionally, our Lineup Builder is the perfect tool to use when hand-building your lineups.
General Strategy
My overall strategy for these formats is quite simple. I try to find the best spots to correlate and utilize the Leverage Scores in our Player Models to find pivots off of players who are projected for higher rostership.
A lot of the time, when looking for games to target, you land on high-total games because that’s where we’d expect the most points to be scored. Naturally, high-total games come with higher projected ownership on certain players. However, it’s still possible to have unique builds when targeting these games, and we can still insert other one-off plays to differentiate our lineups.
You don’t need a whole lineup of contrarian plays to win a small-field tournament, though it helps to pivot in the right spots. I also tend to rely on the Ceiling Projections instead of Median Projections when I am making my lineup decisions.
Also, keep in mind the projected ownership levels in the models are geared toward large-field GPPs, so there is some guesswork on estimating ownership projections for smaller fields.
Note: I play these small-field tournaments on DraftKings, so that’s what this analysis will focus on.
Games I’m Targeting
Detroit Lions (17.5) at. Los Angeles Rams (33.5)
This week is shaping up to be another interesting one as we have just 10 games on the main slate for the second week in a row. Also, most of the high-total games besides Chiefs-Titans (-4.5 spread) have huge differences in the point spread. That said, I think the impact of these spreads is largely overblown.
For these games to live up to their blowout potential, the favored offense is going to have to score 4-5+ touchdowns. Per our Trends tool, these quarterbacks have been just fine, historically:
Last week, I posted in my Sunday morning update that I was leaning more towards the Rams as one of my stacks. I think I’ll be heading back to that well again as Matthew Stafford and the Rams will be one of my targets this week.
The primary downside is that these guys are currently projecting to be some of the highest rostered guys. That’s at least true for Darrell Henderson and Cooper Kupp. Despite the high Ownership Projections, they still have relatively neutral Leverage Scores because of their high Ceiling Projections in our models.
That said, we don’t need to be contrarian everywhere in these smaller tournaments. We can still differentiate our lineup with other one-off plays around our chalkier stacks.
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is that you can apply different weights to our NFL projections from some of our partners (may require separate purchases) to create an aggregate set to your specifications (you can also upload your own):
When I make my preferred inputs, Kupp leads all receivers in Ceiling Projection, which is another reason I don’t mind eating the rostership on Kupp.
If you wanted to differentiate more, you could double stack Stafford with Van Jefferson. Jefferson has a top-30 Ceiling Projection but is priced all the way down at $3,500. This would turn into a bit of an onslaught with Stafford-Henderson-Jefferson-Kupp.
Another interesting way to target this game could be to fade Kupp, and then you double-stack Stafford with Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee. Woods has the 13th-highest Leverage Score among receivers, and Higbee’s ranks sixth.
TJ Hockenson or D’Andre Swift makes the most sense as the bring-back options. Both are listed as questionable, so be sure to monitor their statuses leading up to the game.
Hockenson offers the most leverage of those two (97 % Leverage Rating) because Swift presently has a 20% Ownership Projection as of Saturday morning.
Atlanta Falcons (25) at Miami Dolphins (22.5)
On a 10-game slate, we have limited options this week. While this game doesn’t exactly stand out with a total of 47.5, it’s still the fifth-highest total this week. I also like the close spread in this game.
This game could have sneaky shootout potential as both teams are trotting out poor defenses. The Falcons rank 30th in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA, while the Dolphins rank 26th in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA.
I think you could stack either side of this game. Ryan Hodge touches on the Falcons side of the ball in his Concise Conviction article, so I’ll touch on the Miami side.
Tua Tagovailoa’s cheap price tag at $5,500 on DraftKings will allow a ton of roster flexibility elsewhere, and he’s currently sporting the 10th-highest Ceiling Projection with my inputs. Since DeVante Parker and Preston Williams are both questionable, Jaylen Waddle would be my preferred stacking option.
Waddle owns a 21% target share on his targets per route, and he leads the team in routes run per game (per RotoViz). Parker hasn’t played since Week 5, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him sit this week out, further boosting Waddle’s outlook. As of Saturday morning, Waddle boasts a top-15 Ceiling Projection.
If you wanted to make this more of a game stack, you could run it back with both Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. Pitts offers the most leverage because people don’t seem too keen on paying $5,900 for a tight end (4% Projected Ownership). Pitts owns the third-best Leverage Score among tight ends. Mike Gesicki at $4,700 would also keep people off of Pitts.
Ridley could turn into one of the higher rostered receivers on the slate, but it’s a great spot for him with the lackluster Miami secondary. Additionally, CB Byron Jones (quad, Achillies) and CB Xavien Howard (shoulder, groin) are both banged up.
If you don’t want to run Pitts in this stack, it’s still easy to use Travis Kelce as a one-off play since the cost of this stack is on the cheaper side. Kelce gives you access to the highest game total on the slate, along with a tight end with massive upside.
One-Off Plays
Usually, these one-off plays are where I am looking to differentiate my roster from everyone else, especially if the stacks I am targeting project to be highly rostered.
My reasoning behind these plays is rather minimalistic — I look at projected ownership and Ceiling Projections. Those two things combined are where we get our Leverage Scores and Ratings.
Derrick Henry will obviously be popular, but it’s hard not to consider a running back who is averaging 29.7 touches per game vs. a defense that ranks 31st in rush DVOA. His Ceiling Projection leads the slate among running backs, and so does his Leverage Score. Using him will just depend on what the rest of your roster looks like.
Aaron Jones can be one of the more frustrating guys to roster, but he owns a top-three Leverage Score and Ceiling Projection in this spot against Washington. Jones is averaging 17.3 touches per game, the 11th-best mark in the league. Overall, Jones has seen 70% of the high-value touches among Green Bay running backs (RotoViz).
It’s hard to imagine people will highly target Mike Evans after the Bears kept Davante Adams quiet last week, especially since Chris Godwin is $600 cheaper and has a slightly higher Ceiling Projection. At the time of writing Evans’s Ownership projection is 25% less than Godwin’s. Even though Godwin doesn’t have as much leverage (71% Leverage Rating), I still like Godwin as a one-off play as well. The Bucs have one of the highest pass rates in the league, throwing on 65% of their plays.
With Rashod Bateman‘s high Ownership Projection, along with his $3,400 price tag, I imagine Marquise Brown will go overlooked (4% Ownership Projection). Brown won’t be put into any optimals because he’s not projecting as a strong value, but he has a top-20 Ceiling Projection and top five Leverage Score.
Mark Andrews was a late addition to my pool last week, and he seems like a solid target again. He leads the team with a 24% target share and is fourth in the league among tight ends in target share per route run. He or Brown are strong leverage plays over Bateman.
Other One-Off Plays Based on Leverage Scores/Ratings
- Damien Harris
- A.J. Brown
- Henry Ruggs
- Travis Kelce
Darren Waller- Robert Tonyan
Sunday Morning Update
I don’t always have an update on Sundays, but sometimes my thoughts change after I write this. Check back Sunday to see if anything has changed.
If there is an update, it will be posted by 12:30 p.m. ET.
Update
Not much has changed for me since I wrote this article. I am adding Chase Edmonds to my player pool, however. This game may set up better for James Conner, but I don’t mind rolling the dice on Edmonds with the Ceiling Projection I have on him.
If you’re struggling to get a feel for the slate, we also have some optimizer templates in our Lineup Optimizer that you can use to see where the raw projections are leaning for stacks:
