In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs who rank near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Leonard Fournette
- Josh Jacobs
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Leonard Fournette ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13) at Carolina Panthers (39 total)
Leonard Fournette continues to have one of the most valuable workloads in the league. He’s averaged 21.17 touches per game, with touch counts of 23, 26, 24, and 27 in four separate games. He’s virtually game-script proof, as even when the Bucs struggle on the ground, Fournette can still thrive through the air.
Fournette was only able to muster 63 yards on 21 carries last week but made up for it with 38 yards and a touchdown on 6 catches. It was a similar story in Week 5 against Atlanta, where Fournette gained merely 56 yards on 14 carries but caught 10 balls for 83 yards and a touchdown.
His production should stay fairly similar as the Bucs match up with Carolina. Opposing backfields are averaging 28.2 touches per game against the Panthers. They’re allowing the seventh-most fantasy points on the ground to opposing backs and are middle in the pack at defending opposing backs through the air.
Fournette doesn’t lead any of our models this week but is second in three of them and third in our Tournament Model.
Josh Jacobs ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-7) vs. Houston Texans (45.5 total)
Jacobs is the unanimous top back in all four models, which is expected with his price not reflecting his role. Jacobs has entered workhorse territory, with touch counts of 18, 33, and 26 in the Raiders’ last three games. These touches are also valuable, as Jacobs is a big part of the passing game. He’s seen five, six, and five targets in the same three-game stretch.
Jacobs has run very efficiently in the last two games against two solid defenses. Jacobs averaged 7.3 yards per carry en route to 154 yards on the ground against Kansas City in Week 5 and ran for 144 yards against Denver in Week 4. Coming off of the bye, Jacobs will be rested and ready to handle another full workload.
The matchup with Houston is exactly what you want as a running back. Jacobs is a home favorite against a Houston defense, allowing 4.98 yards per carry and 19.3 fantasy points on the ground to opposing backs.
Jacobs laps the field in Projected Plus/Minus and is the top back in Points/Salary this week as well.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Derrick Henry ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): Tennessee Titans (-2.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (42 total)
Speaking of valuable workloads, Derrick Henry definitely fits that bill. Since Week 2, Henry has had touch counts of 25, 25, and 30. Tennessee is featuring Henry in the passing game again, as he’s amassed 13 targets in the past three games. He’s also found the end zone with consistency, with four in the past three games and five total on the year. If the Titans keep featuring Henry through the air, he’ll remain one of the top backs in the league for fantasy purposes.
Henry matches up with a Colts’ defense that he just touched up for 114 yards and a touchdown on 5.2 yards per carry. He also had success through the air, catching three of five targets for 33 yards. The Colts have been very stout as a whole against opposing backs, but Henry isn’t any ordinary running back. Per usual, we’re betting on talent and backing Henry in this spot.
Dameon Pierce ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Dameon Pierce (+7) at Las Vegas Raiders (45.5 total)
Dameon Pierce saw workhorse numbers last week, running 26 times and seeing five targets through the air. He finished with 99 yards and a touchdown on the ground, and three catches for 14 yards. Pierce has now found paydirt in three straight weeks and showed explosiveness on a 75-yard touchdown in Week 4 against the Chargers.
Pierce has been an efficient and elusive runner as well. He ranks second in missed tackles forced at 33 while averaging 4.17 yards after contact per rush attempt. The situation this week is slightly worrisome, as the Texans are road underdogs, and the Raiders have been solid against the run. They’ve allowed merely 3.9 yards per carry and the eighth-least rushing fantasy points per game. They have gotten exposed by opposing backs through the air, so hopefully, Pierce can accrue some targets this week.
Kenneth Walker III ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (+5) at Los Angeles Chargers (50 total)
Kenneth Walker III was everything we could’ve hoped for in his debut as the lead back in Seattle. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry and totaled 97 yards and a touchdown on 21 attempts. He also saw a little usage through the air, with 13 yards on two catches. He handled 92% of the backfield touches, which was the highest rate among backs in Week 6. He only ran a route on 39.5% of team dropbacks, which isn’t ideal.
This week brings a strong matchup for Walker, as the Chargers are allowing a league-high 5.83 yards per carry to opposing backs. They’ve given 60.1% of their rushing yards on explosive plays, while 68.3% of Seattle’s rushing yardage has come on gains of 10 or more yards. It’s not an ideal set of circumstances for Los Angeles, but it certainly is for Walker. A road underdog is not a script for Walker, but this matchup is as good as it gets.
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