In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are seven running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 7 Fantasy Rankings (as of Friday):
- Derrick Henry (1st)
- Aaron Jones (3rd)
- Darrell Henderson (4th)
- Leonard Fournette (8th)
- Josh Jacobs (9th)
- Miles Sanders (15th)
- Myles Gaskin (25th)
We’ll discuss why these seven are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Monday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Running Backs
Derrick Henry ($9,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel): Tennessee Titans (+4.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (57.5 total)
You don’t need me to tell you how dominant King Henry has been this season (but I will anyway). He leads all players in DraftKings points through six weeks — the next six players are all quarterbacks. The question at this point isn’t who will be the best projected running back on a weekly basis, but how many points separate Henry from the field.
The other question, of course, is how much you’re willing to pay for him. This is reminiscent of the yearly discussion around drafting Travis Kelce in season-long — how much is that clear positional advantage worth?
This week, the answer on DraftKings is “more than that.” Henry is $1,700 more than the slate’s second most expensive running back (Aaron Jones), but Henry is projected for an additional 4.5 points (Median Projection). His ceiling is almost seven points higher.
Speaking of that ceiling, we currently have it at 30.4 points. Henry has gone over that in half of his games so far this season. Figuring out accurate projections for the Big Dog is a challenge:
Projecting Derrick Henry is damn near impossible. It’s unreasonable to project anybody for three rushing touchdowns…but he’s done it in half their games. What’s a good carry projection? low 20s? He’s averaging 27
— Billy Ward (@Psychoward586) October 19, 2021
Henry’s price is a bit prohibitive on FanDuel, where he’s $2,500 more expensive than Jones. Of course, if he explodes for 40+ points, that price is still a bargain.
We’ve made it this far without even discussing the matchup. The short version is: it doesn’t matter. Henry can go off on anybody. However, it’s a good one this week — the Chiefs are the 31st ranked rushing defense (by DVOA) in the league.
Thanks to his cheaper price, Henry leads two of our Pro Models on DraftKings. He’s a solid play on FanDuel as well, where he’s eighth in Pts/Sal.
Aaron Jones ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-7.5) vs. Washington Football Team (48 total)
As mentioned above, Jones is the next most expensive back across the industry, with a large gap between him and Derrick Henry. Jones is ceding significant time to back AJ Dillon this season, with Jones playing roughly 65% of the snaps so far. However, Jones still has a valuable role. He’s getting two-thirds of the running back targets and almost 80% of the red-zone carries.
Red-zone stats are one of the best parts of our models. It’s broken down by “market share” or percentage of the team’s work, so you can see how coaches are using a player without it being influenced by previous game scripts. Here are Jones and Dillon this week:
Opp here means “opportunities,” not “opponent.” Jones averages 3.18 red zone opportunities per game.
We can easily see at a glance how Jones dominates inside the 20. It’s true that Dillon is cutting into his work, but Jones is still getting most of the high-value opportunities. There should be plenty of those opportunities this week. Green Bay is a solid favorite, so they should have a positive game script most of the way.
Jones is a great pivot from Henry, given the savings. While they don’t come as frequently for Jones, he’s shown in the past that he has monster games in his range of outcomes. Since 2019, he has four games over 40 DraftKings points, with one of those going for 52.2. Jones leads one of our models on DraftKings this week.
Darrell Henderson ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-16) vs. Detroit Lions (50 total)
The Rams are committed to using Darrell Henderson in the old Todd Gurley role. He’s been on the field for over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps in his five healthy games. He’s seeing about 70% of the running back carries and virtually all of the pass game work — backup Sony Michel has one total target in the five games D Hendo has been active.
That role is especially valuable, with the Rams as massive favorites. Backs getting at least 70% of the snaps have dominated for the Rams as 10+ point favorites:
The Lions are also sporting a bottom-six rush defense in the league, which has translated to a slate-best +5.1 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed on DraftKings. Henderson leads two of our models there, thanks to a solid 96% Bargain Rating.
Leonard Fournette ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13) vs. Chicago bears (47 total)
Uncle Lenny is priced right below Henderson on DraftKings but is significantly cheaper than him on FanDuel, where he leads one of our Pro Models.
I mention him relative to Henderson because the case on both of them is similar. Fournette has been on the field for over 70% of the Bucs snaps the past three weeks. Also, like Henderson, the Bucs are massive favorites this week, which bodes well for the running game.
Fournette has been a revelation since getting a starters workload. He’s averaging over 20 FanDuel points per game in that stretch. So far this season, Derrick Henry is the only back to average 20 FanDuel points on the season.
Fournette also has 16 targets in that three-game span. So even if this game unexpectedly goes south for Tampa, his workload is secure. Given their similarities, I’m playing Henderson on DraftKings and Fournette on FanDuel this week.
Josh Jacobs ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (48.5 total)
Jacobs leads two of our FanDuel Models this week, the most of any running back. The case for Jacobs is more speculative — he’s yet to top 17 FanDuel points in a game this season. However, that could change this week.
The matchup with Philadelphia is solid. Our models have been all over Raiders, in general, this week — largely thanks to the projected pace of this game. Philadelphia ranks fourth in situation-neutral pace on the season. They’re also the 25th ranked rushing defense this year but 12th against the pass. The easiest route to success for Las Vegas will be on the ground.
The Game script also benefits Jacobs this week. While he’s getting more pass game work this season, he’s historically been much better as a favorite:
Josh Jacobs Favored/Underdog Splits
Jacobs is third in our Points/Salary Projection this week on FanDuel.
Miles Sanders ($5,100 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Las Vegas Raiders (48.5 total)
Sanders is the only back to lead a model on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He sits atop one on each site. Both providers have been slow to adjust to Sanders retaking the reins of Philadelphia’s backfield. Backup Kenneth Gainwell has taken six total carries the past four weeks, after combining for 15 the first two weeks of the season.
It hasn’t translated into fantasy scoring for Sanders yet, but brighter days are ahead. The Eagles faced Tampa Bay and Carolina the past two weeks, both notoriously tough run defenses. This week they’re on the road against the Raiders — who have the third friendliest Opponent Plus/Minus Allowed to running backs on the slate.
Philadelphia is an underdog, but only by three points. They shouldn’t have to abandon the run in this one, at least not until the final few minutes. Sanders also has enough of a receiving role that it’s not a major concern. He’s averaging three catches per game on the year. He’s been held without a touchdown so far, which is certainly due to regress at some point.
All of the underlying factors are there for Sanders to break out this week. He’s hard to trust given his recent performance but could pay off in a big way.
Myles Gaskin ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (47.5 total)
The final back on top of one of our models is Myles Gaskin, who leads one on FanDuel. Gaskin has been very quiet in the rushing game as of late — 10 rushes the past two weeks combined. However, he’s making up for it through the air, seeing 16 targets in that span.
With the Falcons allowing 6.4 running back receptions per game (eighth-most in the league), the matchup bodes well for Gaskin. I’d also expect him to return closer to his nine carry per-game average from the first half of the season, with game scripts getting away from Miami the past few weeks.
Gaskin is also sure to be passed over by most of the field this week. Our Ownership Projections have him as the 14th most popular back on FanDuel this weekend. Now’s a good time to buy the dip on Gaskin if you’re looking for a pure punt for GPPs.
Other Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside
Chuba Hubbard ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (-3) at New York Giants (43 total)
With Christian McCaffrey now on IR (after rumors he was attempting to play last week), Hubbard will have at least a few more games as the Panthers starter. While he’s no CMC (in usage or ability), he’s priced reasonably on both sites for his workload. The matchup with the Giants helps too — the Gmen are a bottom-five rush defense. Add to that a positive game script, and Chuba is quietly one of the best plays this week.
D’Andre Swift ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (+16) at Los Angeles Rams (50 total)
Swift is effectively the Lions’ top wide receiver — he leads the team in catches this season. As 16-point underdogs, the Detroit passing game will obviously be put to the test here. Swift somehow only has two air yards on the season — not per catch… total.
However, with full PPR scoring on DraftKings, we aren’t as concerned with the lack of yardage. Swift also mixes in for 11 or so carries per game. I wouldn’t trust him for cash games, with 0 yards of total offense being well within the range of possibilities for the Lions this week (maybe not quite 0, but you get my drift).
However, if they’re able to do anything this week, it’s likely through Swift.
