In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Joe Burrow
- Dak Prescott
- Geno Smith
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Joe Burrow ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (47.5 total)
With Josh Allen off of the slate this week, we finally have another quarterback at the top of the models! Burrow has had some solid performances this year, putting up 26.22 and 23.0 DraftKings points in Weeks 1 and 3, respectively. We finally saw Burrow flash the ceiling that we saw so many times last year as he threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns while scampering for another one in last week’s 30-26 victory over the Saints.
The Bengals strayed away from their usual, conservative early-down offense and started slinging the ball more. Burrow had his second-highest attempt number of the year at 37. Cincy should be able to sling the ball again this week, as Atlanta is allowing a 69.0% completion rate, 7.2 yards per attempt, and a 4.1% touchdown rate.
To make matters better for Burrow, Atlanta is 30th in pressure rate at 24.2% and 32nd in sack rate at 3.2%. Burrow has access to an extremely high ceiling despite not using his legs much. He had some stellar performances in 2021, with 41.10 and 37.84 DraftKings points in back-to-back weeks.
Burrow is the top quarterback in our Cash Game Model, as well as Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Dak Prescott ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. Detroit Lions (49 total)
Dak Prescott will finally return to the field this week after leaving Week 1’s loss to Tampa Bay with a thumb injury. The Cowboys have actually been fine without Dak, winning four straight after the injury and sitting at 4-2 on the year. Dallas now gets an appetizing matchup at home against the Lions.
Prescott struggled in Week 1, only scoring 5.46 DraftKings points prior to his injury. The good news is that this matchup is far better than Week 1’s against Tampa Bay. The Lions are giving up a 65.9% completion rate, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and a 4.7% touchdown rate. Four of five quarterbacks to face Detroit have finished in the top ten in fantasy scorers for the week, with the only exception being Bailey Zappe. Zappe was still successful against Detroit, completing 17-of-21 passes and averaging 9.0 yards per attempt.
It’s always scary to use players returning from injury, but this may be the perfect opportunity to buy low on Prescott. Detroit has been a part of some crazy shootouts, with game totals of 71, 63, 52, 93, and 29 on the year. We wouldn’t touch Prescott in cash games, but he’s a perfect tournament option.
It’s fitting that he leads our Tournament Model this week.
Geno Smith ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (+5) at Los Angeles Chargers (50 total)
Geno Smith finally came back down to earth last week, only scoring 12.68 DraftKings points against Arizona. Smith had averaged 27.21 DraftKings points per game in the three games prior to last week’s dud.
Last week’s performance was more due to red zone struggles than overall regression for Smith. Seattle had four separate drives stall inside of Arizona’s 21-yard line and resulted in field goals. If just one or two of those drives end in a different result, we’re likely talking about Smith’s performance differently.
Smith was due for some regression, as he wasn’t going to sustain his 10.7 yards per attempt number that he was averaging in Weeks 4 and 5. With Seattle coming in as a big underdog in this one, they’re likely to play aggressively, which is good news for Smith’s fantasy outlook.
The matchup is nothing to be intimidated of, as the Chargers are allowing a middling 7.0 yards per pass attempt. They have given up a 5.3% touchdown rate, which is one of the higher numbers in the league. Four of six opposing quarterbacks have thrown for multiple touchdowns against Los Angeles.
Smith is the top quarterback in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model this week.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (45.5 total)
Lamar had a fall from grace after starting the season scorching hot. Jackson has scored 18 or fewer DraftKings points in three straight games after scoring 43+ in Weeks 2 and 3. Still, few quarterbacks possess the ceiling that Jackson has, as he is more than capable of throwing for 300+ yards and running for another 100 on the ground, as seen in Week 2.
Jackson’s last three matchups came against teams ranking in the top twelve in fantasy points surrendered through the air, while Cleveland sits at 18th. Cleveland also ranks 23rd in fantasy points allowed per pass attempt. After dropping a handful of games that they likely should have won, Baltimore sits at 3-3 on the year. They can’t afford to keep losing games where they outplay their opponents, so they’ll likely be all systems go in this division matchup on Sunday.
Patrick Mahomes ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at San Francisco 49ers (48.5 total)
Few quarterbacks can reach Lamar Jackson’s ceiling, but one of the few guys on that list is surely Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes started the year hot, going for 37.9 DraftKings points in Week 1 against Arizona. He’s had 24+ DraftKings points in each of their last three games, going for 30.48 against Las Vegas in Week 5.
The 49ers have a very banged-up defense. San Francisco entered Week 6 already missing Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Jimmie Ward, Javon Kinlaw, and Emmanuel Mosely. They proceeded to lose Charvarius Ward and Talanoa Hufanga during the game. Bosa and both Wards could return this week, but this is a short-handed defense regardless.
This could be a sneaky explosion spot for Mahomes.
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