In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 7 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening):
- Patrick Mahomes (1st)
- Kyler Murray (2nd)
- Lamar Jackson (3rd)
- Tua Tagovailoa (11thj)
- Sam Darnold (12th)
We’ll discuss why these five are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Tennessee Titans (56.5 total)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before; Patrick Mahomes leads the slate in Median Projection. While the Chiefs aren’t implied by Vegas for the highest team total this week, their game against the Titans does have the highest game total.
Mahomes has been the model of consistency this year, with a floor of 21.98 DraftKings (20.98 FanDuel) points so far. In close wins, bad losses, and everything in between — Mahomes gets his. Of course, we don’t pay up for the top quarterback because of his floor; it’s his ceiling we’re after. We haven’t quite seen it this year — his best game has been just over 46 DraftKings points. However, he has gone over 40 points four times in his three and change years as a starter.
This week is as good as any for Mahomes to find that ceiling. The Titans are a bottom-five pass defense by DVOA, which is helpful but not the key consideration this week. What’s really helpful is how explosive the Titans offense is. When Derrick Henry breaks a 70-yard touchdown run against the Chiefs’ 31st-ranked rush defense, that gets the ball right back to Mahomes. With AJ Brown and Julio Jones both back on the field, the Titans offense should be firing on all cylinders, which means plenty of Mahomes coming back the other way.
This isn’t just conjecture, either. Mahomes thrives when the overall game environment is high scoring:
This game opened up with a 54 total. Our models currently (Tuesday evening) list it at 56.5, but books are beginning to move even higher. We’re showing as high as 57.5 on our NFL Odds page. By the way, Mahomes averages over 30 DraftKings points in games where the total moves up at least one point (also via our Trends tool). Increasing totals is another positive sign — sharp bettors are anticipating more points will be scored.
Mahomes is in play on both sites, but he’s an absolute steal on FanDuel. That’s where he leads the Koerner Model.
Kyler Murray ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-17.5) vs. Houston Texans (47 total)
Murray is a near-unanimous leader of our Pro’s FanDuel models, with Mahomes sneaking past him in one. He’s in a great spot. His Cardinals trail only the Rams in implied team total this week.
With three games this week featuring spreads of at least 13, figuring out which quarterbacks will go off even in a blowout will be one of the keys to the slate. Kyler is the only one of that group to lead one of our models. Let’s dig in and find out why.
Murray’s dual-threat ability is obviously crucial to his fantasy success. He’s the QB4 in FanDuel scoring on the season, but the QB20 in pass attempts this year. His efficiency is part of this as he leads the league in completion percentage. However, getting there without a ton of volume will be crucial if the Cardinals go up big this week. Kyler has two games over 30 FanDuel points on the season, but his high in pass attempts is 36. For context, Tom Brady is averaging 44.5 per game.
While I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect an outright blowup game this week, Kyler should account for a good chunk of the Cardinals’ 30+ implied points. You’d need somebody from the Texans to answer back for Murray to really post a monster game, so if you’re rostering Kyler in tournaments, using some Houston options as bring-backs makes sense.
Keep your Murray exposure to FanDuel, where Kyler has a 99% Bargain Rating.
Lamar Jackson ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (46.5 total)
Unlike the other top-end quarterbacks, Jackson is a far better value on DraftKings. He leads all quarterbacks in Ceiling Projections there, despite being the fifth most expensive quarterback. Accordingly, he also leads the slate in Pts/Sal there, as well as three of our Pro Models.
Lamar was a bit of a disappointment last week. He wasn’t needed much, with Ravens running backs accounting for three touchdowns. His 35 rushes plus pass attempts were the lowest on the season, as were his 13.78 DraftKings points.
This week should be a better one for Lamar, though. If for no other reason than regression to the mean. He has scored at least 20 points in 10 straight games before last week. Last week’s opponents, the Chargers, are also a major run funnel. They rank dead last against the rush but fifth against the pass. This week’s opponent, the Bengals, are fourth-best against the run.
With the Ravens being content to grind out games on the ground, it’s a good thing for Jackson when that’s more difficult. The last time they faced a top-five run defense was Week 5 against the Colts. (This game also snapped the Ravens’ streak of 43 games with at least 100 rushing yards). That week, Lamar scored a season-high 45.88 DraftKings points.
With top-shelf players like Lamar (and the other quarterbacks mentioned so far), it’s crucial to find clues that point us to their ceiling games. Opposing rushing defense just might be the key for Jackson.
This is hard to verify as I can’t find data on what a team’s rushing DVOA was at the time they played Baltimore in the past. However, it could still be a small edge, which is all we can hope for in a game of incomplete information.
While the field might have moved beyond recency bias, we could also see a drop in rostership on Jackson this week. Be sure to follow our projections as we approach Sunday.
Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Tua is a solid value choice on DraftKings this week. If we’re looking to spend up at other positions, That could come in handy. The sophomore leads one of our models on DraftKings, where he’s tied with Jackson for the best value if using Pts/Sal.
Tagovailoa returned from injury last week against the Jaguars in London. He was not eased in, attempting 47 passes despite the Dolphins leading much of the way. He finished with 25.38 DraftKings points, the second-best mark of his young career.
This bodes well for Week 7, with the Dolphins as underdogs to the Falcons. While Jacksonville has the worst pass defense in the league, Atlanta isn’t far behind at 29. Tua may also benefit from the return of de-facto top wideout Devante Parker, who sat out the last two weeks. Late week news will tell us more.
With all of the exciting options at the top of the salary range, he could very easily go overlooked by the field this week. Saving salary at quarterback also allows you access to more high-priced players at other positions. In tournaments, where we want to be unique, this is another benefit.
Tagovailoa, of course, has a much lower ceiling than the players mentioned above. But at only $5,500, it doesn’t need to be as big to win you a tournament.
Sam Darnold ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at New York Giants (43 total)
Darnold is in a similar situation to Tagovailoa this week. He also leads one of our DraftKings Models. Both cheap quarterbacks are priced too close to the top-end players on FanDuel, but the savings are significant on DraftKings.
It seems like only two weeks ago we were discussing Darnold’s great season. He opened the year with four straight 20+ point fantasy performances before combining for just 26.16 the past two weeks combined. The loss of star running back Christian McCaffrey has been a major blow to the offense.
While CMC is still out, there are some slightly brighter signs for Darnold this week. His two poor games came against top-12 passing defenses. The Giants are ranked 22nd. The Giants are also the seventh-fastest paced team in the league, so play volume should be solid.
I prefer Tua if going with a cheap quarterback this week, but I can see the case for Darnold. At the very least, he has better weaponry in DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. I’ll be waiting for the return of McCaffrey before I get back on the Darnold train, but he’s an interesting pivot from Tua.
Other Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside
Matthew Stafford ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-16) vs. Detroit Lions (50 total)
Stafford and the Rams are hosting the Lions this week, with revenge-game narratives abound. Both starting quarterbacks are facing their former teams. Stafford and the Rams are implied for a slate-leading 33 points this week. How much of that comes through the air will be the crucial question. The Lions defense is bad all around, but the Rams could race off to a big lead early and run out the clock.
There is a slight chance Sean McVay and the Rams let Stafford air it out all day to stick it to his former team. If that happens, Stafford could easily lead the slate in scoring.
Jalen Hurts ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (+3) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (48.5 total)
Hurts should really be in the weekly discussion of top quarterback options. He’s the QB5 in DraftKings scoring on the season and has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in every game in which he played every snap. This week, his Eagles are slight underdogs against the mediocre Raiders defense. He’s way too cheap on DraftKings for that kind of production. While there’s nothing special about the matchup that I can see, Hurts gets it done no matter what.
Why should this week be any different?
Tom Brady ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13) vs. Chicago Bears (47 total)
Brady rounds out the group of big favorites this week. Unlike the other quarterbacks, we have less game-script concern with Brady. He leads the league in pass attempts and threw it 41 times (for 37.75 FanDuel points) in the Buc’s 28-point victory over the Dolphins. In fact, his two biggest fantasy games have come in the two biggest wins of the season. His complete lack of rushing production limits his ceiling just a bit compared to the other top options. He’s also a bit cheaper, particularly on FanDuel, where he’s the sixth most expensive quarterback.
Brady is a great leverage play if his ownership projects low this week.
Ryan Tannehill ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Tennessee Titans (+4.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (57.5 total)
The Chiefs are allowing a league-worst +6.4 Opponent Plus/Minus to quarterbacks this season. Four straight quarterbacks went for over 30 DraftKings points until Taylor Heinicke snapped that steak last week. The matchup is ideal for Tannehill, who’s set to have both of his top wideouts back this week. Tannehill is 16th in pass attempts this season, but that should change this week with the Titans trying to keep pace with the Chiefs. To sum it up, we have increased volume, increased efficiency, and a reasonable price. The mid-range passers in general will likely be ignored this week, which is a mistake. Forget about Tannehill at your own peril.
