Week 7 of the NFL season brings us the Bye Apocalypse, with six teams earning the well-deserved week of rest. Buffalo, Dallas, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles Chargers, and Jacksonville are already focusing their attention towards Week 8.
Last week was a great week for our early DFS selections, as we hit on Jonathan Taylor (RB2), Noah Fant (TE1), and Ricky Seals-Jones (TE3) while correctly fading Marquise Brown (WR62).
Each week, I will bring you an early look at which players to target and fade for the upcoming Sunday DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. I’ll do this by using our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Keep in mind that a lot can change between now and when lineups lock. Our Player Models update in real-time to help make quick lineup decisions before rosters lock.
This is a wonderful time of year, so let’s take a deep dive into which players to target in the seventh week of the 2021 NFL season.
Quarterback Targets
Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500 DK, $7,100 FD)
Most DFS players are of the opinion that Tua Tagovailoa played poorly in Week 6.
I must have watched a different game.
In his first game back from fractured ribs suffered in Week 2, Tagovailoa completed over 70% of his passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 22 yards. He finished as the overall QB10 despite playing without wide receivers DeVante Parker and Will Fuller.
Miami now returns home to host an Atlanta team that is allowing 29.7 points per game on the season, second-most among all NFL teams. He is the 13th-priced quarterback on both sites yet is projected for a 30-point ceiling on both sites.
This is the exact type of quarterback we want in DFS Tournaments: low cost with high upside. Any quarterback that is priced that low in a game with a 47.5-point total is DFS viable, especially one who projects for low rostership after returning from injury.
Atlanta (11th) and Miami (13th) have a solid pace and are the second-fastest situation-neutral team in pace per Football Outsiders. New England is a surprising 12th, making for more opportunities for both offenses.
Tagovailoa is our second highest-rated quarterback play on DraftKings, above higher-priced quarterbacks such as Jalen Hurts ($6,900) and Ryan Tannehill ($6,400).
Derek Carr ($6,000 DK, $7,400 FD)
The Las Vegas quarterback is still ranked second among all quarterbacks in passing yards (1,946) and is eighth overall in yards per attempt (8.4). Carr is the 10th highest-priced quarterback on both sites but faces a Philadelphia defense that has allowed 29.3 points per game in their past three contests.
I expect Carr to focus on getting his top receiving target, tight end Darren Waller, involved early. After a 19-target, 10-reception Week 1 game against Baltimore, Waller has failed to produce a fantasy performance inside the top 10 of tight ends in any of the past four games. This season, the Eagles have allowed the third-most receptions (40) and most touchdowns (five) to the tight end position. Carr rates as our eighth-best quarterback on DraftKings, with a solid floor and high projected upside in the Bales Model.
Carr is a savings DFS play at the quarterback position that allows you to spend up to acquire running backs and wide receivers in the coveted Kansas City-Tennessee game.
With a solid 47.5 point over/under, Carr is a safe value play as the home favorite against an offensively challenged Philadelphia team.
Running Back Target
Josh Jacobs ($6,200 DK, $6,900 FD)
The Raiders return to Las Vegas after an impressive road win over Denver to face an Eagles team that struggles to contain opposing running backs. Philadelphia ranks 25th in run defense DVOA per FootballOutsiders, and have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards (713) and receptions (39) to opposing RBs.
Jacobs has tallied at least a 65% snap share in the past three weeks and has four total touchdowns despite only playing in four games. He has two games with at least four receptions when he only reached that total twice in the entire season last year. He projects as the third-best running back on FanDuel using our Bales Model and has overall running back upside among limited running back options.
Philadelphia has allowed the following stat lines to opposing running backs this season:
- Leonard Fournette: 127 total yards, 2 touchdowns
- Chuba Hubbard: 131 total yards
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 114 total yards, 1 touchdown
- Ezekiel Elliott: 116 yards, 2 touchdowns
Philadelphia doesn’t project well in this road matchup, and I have no problem starting Derek Carr and his lead running back as a non-traditional stack on an abbreviated slate.
Wide Receiver Target
Tee Higgins ($4,900 DK, $6,100 FD)
This is a complete gut play with Bengals wideout Tee Higgins, who looks recovered after battling through a shoulder staring earlier this year. Higgins is the clear second option to dynamic rookie Ja’Marr Chase and has relegated wideout Tyler Boyd to a distant WR3 when healthy.
Small sample size, but with Ja’Marr Chase now the WR1 in Cincinnati, Tyler Boyd’s fantasy production is essentially cut in half when Tee Higgins is healthy pic.twitter.com/AsiU31K3OC
— Mike Randle (@RandleRant) October 20, 2021
Baltimore represents a difficult matchup, but with Chase the likely focus of the Ravens secondary, Higgins should be able to find production at his affordable DFS price. Higgins’ price makes him the 26th most expensive wide receiver on FanDuel and the 27th most expensive wideout on DraftKings.
This game carries a solid 47-point over/under, with Cincinnati as a 6.5-point underdog. Baltimore has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which limits Joe Mixon’s expected workload on the ground.
Higgins is our 10th-best rated wideout on DraftKings using the Bales Model. At a sub-$5,000 price, his floor is enticing, even against the stout Ravens defense.
Tight End Target
Anthony Firkser ($3,100 DK, $4,900 FD)
After missing two games because of a hamstring injury, Julio Jones returned to action on Monday Night against Buffalo. After a decent three-receptions 59-yard performance, Jones exited in the fourth quarter after aggravating the injury again.
Heading into a matchup with the explosive Kansas City offense, Tennessee is potentially limited in receiving options yet again. This is a great spot for one of my favorite preseason tight end picks, Anthony Firkser.
Firkser was limited against a Buffalo defense that entered Week 6 as one of the league’s best against opposing tight ends. In Week 7, he faces a Kansas City defense that is the exact opposite. The Chiefs have allowed the most receiving yards (531) and third-most fantasy points to the position.
Certainly, running back Derrick Henry will again be the focus of the offense. But if Jones can’t play, Firkser should see a bigger role in the passing game. At his almost minimal tight end price on both sites, he presents as a great value play with a solid TE1 performance in his range of outcomes.
