As you’re well aware, the small sample size (16 games) in an NFL season can make dealing with the data a little challenging. This is the one sport where I sometimes consider things that “Seem like they will work” because oftentimes, there’s not enough data to sway me one way or the other. This is one of those times.
So I’ve been thinking lately about when matchups on paper aren’t necessarily great predictors for what is going to happen on the field and that’s what really got me thinking about this idea. On NFL Savant, you’re able to break a team’s rushes down by direction. This might seem like something that is just data for the sake of being data until you start looking at the numbers.
For example, the Baltimore Ravens have rushed towards the left end FIVE times all season, while the Washington Redskins lead the league with 39 rushes in that direction. Knowing that a team clearly favors running the ball a certain direction can be advantageous or disadvantageous depending on the personnel on the opposite side of the ball.
On Football Outsiders, you can actually see how teams rank defending the run by direction. Defending runs to the offensive left end, the Patriots have actually given up 7.28 adjusted yards allowed. Maybe the Patriots’ poor rating in this area doesn’t matter as much against the Ravens who have shown to be very unlikely to run the ball that way in 2015.
The idea would be to matchup the teams who run the ball the most in a certain direction with the teams that have been the worst at defending runs that direction. My feeling is that isn’t something to get carried away with – it should be way down the list on “Things to look for”. But if you’ve already identified a few plays at running back, maybe this will be a good tiebreaker.
So I went through the Week 7 matchups and will list the best ones that I found along with a little commentary:
Falcons vs. Titans
Here’s one that I’m sure falls under the category of, “Matchup I was already considering” for many. The Falcons have run to the left end the third most times in the league (about six times per game). Tennessee has been the fourth worst team in the league defending runs to the offensive left end, giving up 5.73 adjusted yards/attempt. If you were looking for a reason to fade Freeman, keep looking.
Seahawks vs. 49ers
This one could also be a nice little value boost. The Seahawks will likely be running plenty this game, particularly since it’s on Thursday Night Football. They’re currently #4 in runs at left tackle – where the 49ers are giving up 5.15 adjusted yards (5th in league).
Chargers vs Raiders
49 of Melvin Gordon’s 78 rush attempts and 29 of Danny Woodhead’s 44 rush attempts have been inside. The Chargers are second in the league in rush attempts up the middle and the Raiders are third worst at defending those types of runs (4.39 aYPC).
Jets vs Patriots
I’m sure the Jets are going to try to control the clock with the running game to keep Brady off the field as much as possible. Luckily for them, the matchup might work in their favor. The Jets are third in the league in rushes up the middle despite having already had their bye week. New England is fourth worst at defending inside rushing (4.31 aYPC).
The directional running I’ve described is something that would be really hard to compile historical data on. But if we’re going to consider wide receiver vs cornerback matchups, maybe we should consider running back matchups in terms of where the ball is likely to go as well.
