The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for Week 6.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen at Kansas City Chiefs – $8,200 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
After a Week 5, 38-3 route over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Josh Allen again projects for the highest ceiling in Week 6. He’s facing a team in the Kansas City Chiefs, who rank 15th in defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, in what looks to be a prime matchup for the superstar quarterback, who remains the most expensive option on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Allen leads the Bills, who are a slim 2.5-point road favorite in a matchup with a 54.-point total, the highest on the slate. A dual-threat option, Allen dropped back 31 times in the Week 5 win, completing 20 passes for a season-high 424 yards and four touchdowns, also moving the offense on the ground, rushing for 42 yards on five attempts. Expect the passing frequency to continue for Allen and the Bills, who this season have employed a 61%/39% pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz) in what looks to be the marquee game of the week.
Per the Trends tool, when Allen appears in matchups above a 54-point total, he averages 31.84 DraftKings points, with a +8.36 Plus/Minus and an 85.7% consistency rating.
Despite the sky-high salary, Allen may be worth the pay-up, giving lineups a solid floor, especially as a dual-threat quarterback and what looks to be a close matchup with Patrick Mahomes.
Top Value: Tom Brady at Pittsburgh Steelers – $6,300 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Future Hall-of-Famer Tom Brady projects as a top value option on DraftKings, given his discounted salary and ideal matchup against the Steelers, who were recently torched by Josh Allen, giving up four passing touchdowns.
Brady and the Buccaneers are an 8.5-point road favorite against the Steelers in a matchup with a 45-point total. Despite injuries to the receiving corps, the Buccaneers are the most pass-heavy team in the league, using a pass-heavy 67%/33% pass-to-run play-calling scheme and could easily move the ball down the field, facing a defense ranked 17th in overall defense, according to PFF.
In a Week 5 21-15 win over the NFC South Rival Falcons, Brady threw for 351 yards on 35 passes and one touchdown. With volume being a key to Brady’s success, averaging 41.4 passing attempts per game, the timeless quarterback should be in consideration to pay off his salary, despite issues in the receiving corps. Keep an eye on the Buccaneers’ receiving corps, with questionable tags for Julio Jones and Russell Gage, leaving lead receiver Mike Evans as the likely first look, leading the team with an 18% target share.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Rhamondre Stevenson at Cleveland Browns – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Rhamondre Stevenson projects for the highest ceiling among running backs in Week 6 in an ideal matchup against the Cleveland Browns, who have appeared to struggle against the run game, ranking last in rush DVOA. Stevenson is responsible for 45% of the Patriots’ rushing share and should see more volume with Damien Harris doubtful for Week 6.
The second-year back looks to be an integral part of the Patriots offense, averaging 13.6 rush attempts for 5.47 yards and also factoring into the passing game, averaging 3.2 targets. The dual-threat ability was demonstrated in a 29-0 win over the Detroit Lions, where he rushed 25 times for 161 yards, also catching two passes for 14 yards. An 85th-percentile outcome is certainly in the cards, even with the Patriots currently a 2.5-point road underdog. Even better, Stevenson’s salary is affordable given the likely volume for the lead Patriots back.
Looking at THE BLITZ, Austin Ekeler projects for the highest ceiling against the Denver Broncos in Week 6. The dual-threat running back may not have a favorable matchup compared to Stevenson, facing a Broncos defense ranked 15 in rushing DVOA, but like Stevenson, expect Ekeler to play a massive role in the Chargers’ offense, both through the air and on the ground, averaging 12 rushing attempts per game for 5.13 per rush and 6.6 targets.
Top Value: Alvin Kamara vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $6,700 on DraftKings, $8,100 on FanDuel
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara projects as a top value among running backs, facing a tough Cincinnati Bengals defense ranked 11th in rush DVOA. Kamara returned to action in Week 5, a 39-32 win over the Seattle Seahawks, rushing 23 times for 103 yards and also factoring into the passing game, catching six passes for 91 yards. Responsible for 52% of the Saints’ rushing share, Kamara rarely leaves the field, seeing 69% of the Saints’ snaps (per Fantasy Pros). The high volume makes him a viable fantasy option at running back, despite his more lofty salary.
In what looks to be a more close game per Vegas standards, currently listing the Saints as a one-point favorite, Kamara may see the bulk of production from the Saints’ offense and could be used in a clock-killing situation if New Orleans is ahead toward the end of the game.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Cooper Kupper vs. Carolina Panthers – $9,700 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
Superstar Cooper Kupp again projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers in a more favorable matchup, facing the Carolina Panthers, who rank 22nd in pass DVOA. With a 33% target share and as a favorite weapon for quarterback Matthew Stafford, look for the wideout to be in almost unfadeable territory. So far this season, Kupp has been hyper-consistent. In a 22-10 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, Kupp caught seven passes for 125 yards, finding the endzone once, and should have a similar outcome, facing a weaker defense on paper.
Aside from the volume, Kupp remains the preferred target in the red zone, leading the team with eight red zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds.
With first looks in a pass-heavy Rams offense and touchdown upside, Kupps immediately becomes a candidate to reach an 85th percentile outcome, despite the sky-high $9,700 salary on DraftKings, and can even be used as a bring-back with Panthers skill players in DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson and Christian McCaffrey, despite the low 43-point total.
Top Value: Tyler Lockett vs. Arizona Cardinals – $5,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
With a discounted salary on both sites, Tyler Lockett again projects as a top value option this week at wide receiver, facing an Arizona Cardinals defense ranked 27th in pass DVOA, a likely ideal matchup for the leading member of the Seahawks receiving corps, responsible for 27% of the target share, splitting the first look with DK Metcalf.
In a breakout performance, despite a 39-32 loss to the New Orleans Saints, Lockett was targeted six times, catching five passes for 104 yards and two touchdowns. His price has also remained unchanged on DraftKings, and given the ideal matchup, should automatically become a viable fantasy option.
This season, with Geno Smith handling under-center duties, Lockett is averaging 8.5 targets per game and 11.2 yards per reception, and despite Metcalf seeing the lion’s share of end-zone targets, Lockett looks to be a consistent producer, either as a one-off play or paired with Cardinals skill players in Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz as a bring back.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Buffalo Bills – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce is back on the main slate and projects for the highest ceiling among tight ends in a marquee matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Despite Buffalo ranking sixth in pass DVOA, Kelce is among the matchup-proof skill players in the league.
In Monday night’s 30-29 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, Kelce was targeted eight times, catching seven passes for 25 yards and four touchdowns. A favorite weapon for Patrick Mahomes, Kelce is responsible for 23% of the Chiefs’ target share as part of their pass-first 63%/37% pass-to-run playing calling scheme.
With the passing volume and touchdown upside, consider using Kelce on both sides of stacks for this matchup, and should be a popular option even with a high salary on both sites.
Top Value: Tyler Higbee vs. Carolina Panthers – $4,600 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
Tyler Higbee looks to be a top value this week at tight-end, facing a Panthers defense ranked 22nd in pass DVOA. Responsible for 25% of the Cowboy’s target share, only behind Cooper Kupp, Higbee is a viable fantasy option, averaging four targets per game.
In the Week 5 loss to the Cowboys, Higbee was targeted 10 times, catching seven passes for 46 yards and should have an easier week against a weak Panthers defense and should reach fantasy relevance, given his likely volume in the Rams’ passing game.
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