The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. Washington – $7,800 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jackson stands out as the top ceiling play in this matchup with Jayden Daniels and the impressive Commanders. Jackson has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on both sites in the evenly-blended three-way aggregate projections of Sean Koerner’s, Chris Rayon’s, and THE BLITZ projections. We’ll use this solid aggregate throughout this post.
Last week, Jackson went off for a season-high 37.42 DraftKings points while leading his team to an overtime comeback win against the Bengals. He threw four touchdowns to go with 348 passing yards and 55 rushing yards. After that performance, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his five games this season with an average of 26.9 DraftKings points per game.
This week, Jackson and Daniels are facing off in what could be an offensive showcase since the game has the second-highest Over/Under on the Vegas Dashboard, which also reveals that the Ravens have the highest implied team total. The Commanders have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, surrendering 11 passing touchdowns and an average of 214.8 passing yards per game.
There’s always a chance that this turns into a Derrick Henry game if the Ravens play from way ahead, but if the game is close, look for Lamar to continue his strong run of play and shine at home in what should be one of the best games on the Sunday afternoon slate.
Top Value: Justin Fields at Las Vegas Raiders – $5,800 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
Fields and the Steelers couldn’t pull out the win last Sunday against the Cowboys, but it appears he’ll get another start this week even though Russell Wilson is healthy. Fields brings both a high floor and a high ceiling due to his potential rushing production and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregate projections this week on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Daniel Jones takes the top spot since the Sunday Night Football game is on the main slate
Fields had his best game of the season on the road in a dome, posting 35.98 DraftKings points as the No. 1 QB for all of Week 4 against the Colts. He crashed back to earth last week against Dallas, producing 15.94 DraftKings points. Fields did save his night by throwing two touchdowns and finished with 131 passing yards and 27 rushing yards.
He has either thrown or run for multiple touchdowns in three straight weeks, and the team’s two losses during that stretch were each by only a field goal. Despite his inconsistencies, he brings enough upside to give the Steelers a chance to win and does the same for your fantasy team with his high ceiling.
This week, he’ll face the Raiders indoors in Las Vegas. The Raiders got carved up by rookie Bo Nix last week and ranks just outside the top 10 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They have allowed 233.7 passing yards per game and six passing touchdowns in the last three weeks.
Fields definitely isn’t a no-risk option, but from his price point, he brings a ton of upside in this favorable matchup, which makes him my favorite value QB of the week.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Alvin Kamara vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,700 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
The Saints won’t have starting quarterback Derek Carr this week and will turn to rookie Spencer Rattler under center. To take the pressure off Rattler, expect Kamara to carry a huge workload for the Saints as he continues his impressive bounce-back season. Kamara has the second-highest ceiling projection at the position in the aggregate on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel.
Kamara exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his five games this season on DraftKings and four of his five games on FanDuel, falling just short when he missed. Last week was not a great week on the ground for him against a tough Chiefs defense as he played through injury. While he only managed 26 rushing yards on 11 carries, he still had a decent fantasy day since he caught six passes for 40 yards. He has 13 catches in the past two weeks and should be a common check-down choice for Rattler this week as well.
Kamara was back at practice Thursday and looks ready to play through hip and hand ailments to take his typical workload against the Bucs this week. Tampa Bay ranks in the middle of the pack against running backs this season but has been good against the run the last two weeks. Part of the reason I still like AK this week is that even if he’s held in check on the ground, he can be very involved as a receiver.
As the clear focal point of the Saints offense, Kamara will look to go off in this home game at the Superdome. He is surprisingly relatively affordable on DraftKings, where he has a 90% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Tony Pollard vs. Indianapolis Colts – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Pollard has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at running back by a wide margin on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregate projections this week. He also has the third-highest ceiling projection of all running backs on FanDuel. On DraftKings, he has an 87% Bargain Rating.
Before the bye, Pollard helped them get their first win of the season by beating the Dolphins in Miami, 31-12. Pollard ran for 88 yards and a touchdown while adding 20 receiving yards on two catches. He exceeded salary-based expectations for the third time in his four games this season with 18.8 DraftKings points. The only game he didn’t put up at least 15 DraftKings points and exceed salary-based expectations was the Titans’ blowout loss to the Packers in Week 3.
Pollard shares the backfield with Tyjae Spears but has played at least 60% of the snaps each week, clearly operating as the preferred option. Spears did get a rushing score on a direct snap against Miami, but Pollard has also been getting plenty of work in the red zone.
Both backs are in a great matchup this week coming off their bye against the Colts, who gave up Tank Bigsby’s breakout and have allowed an average of 119 rushing yards per week to the position, along with three running back touchdowns. The Jags’ running backs also caught nine passes for 80 yards last week, and the Titans’ coaches should look to take advantage of that same mismatch with Pollard and Spears.
There could be other value plays that emerge depending on injury situations, so check back before kickoff. Other options to consider include Najee Harris, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Rico Dowdle.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Drake London at Carolina Panthers – $6,700 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
The top two wide receivers on the Sunday afternoon slate go head-to-head as the Lions and Cowboys meet in Dallas in the game with the highest Over/Under on the board. I like Amon-Ra St. Brown a lot in that matchup, which could also be a bounceback for CeeDee Lamb. However, I’m going with a cheaper play who brings an extremely high ceiling and picking Drake London this week.
London has the fourth-highest ceiling projection of all receivers on DraftKings, even though his salary is barely in the top 10 of the options in our projections. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in the aggregate projections as well. On FanDuel, London has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at receiver, the sixth-highest ceiling projection and a 62% Bargain Rating.
London has emerged over the last few weeks as Kirk Cousins‘ go-to option as the Falcons’ new-look offense has taken shape. London has at least six catches in each of his last four games and has scored three touchdowns while averaging 84.8 yards per game. He had 12 targets against the Saints in Week 4 and 13 targets last Thursday against the Bucs. He is tied for sixth in the NFL in red zone targets and is in the top 10 in DraftKings points per game.
The Falcons receivers get a great matchup this week against the Panthers, who have allowed the 10th-most DraftKings points to receivers. They have allowed eight receiver touchdowns in just five games, with an average of 147.2 receiving yards allowed to the position. D.J. Moore got the Panthers last week, and this week, it should be London’s turn to light them up as he continues his breakout campaign.
Top Value: Ladd McConkey at Denver Broncos – $4,900 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
Another receiver coming off their bye week and popping in our projections is Chargers’ rookie Ladd McConkey. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings in the aggregate projections while ranking fifth on FanDuel, where he has a 73% Bargain Rating.
McConkey has emerged as the go-to receiver in the Chargers passing game, which should be in better shape after Justin Herbert had a week to rest his high ankle sprain. So far this season, the rookie has a 25.8% target share, a 30% air-yard share, and a 30.5% first-read share. He has at least six targets in three of his four games this season and had his best game as a pro with 67 yards, a touchdown, and 17.7 fantasy points in Week 4 just before the bye week.
While the Chargers are unlikely to be a pass-heavy attack under coach Jim Harbaugh, they are throwing it enough to give McConkey a chance to be a good value at this salary. Even in a tough matchup with the Broncos’ strong secondary, McConkey’s upside and volume-based potential are enough to make him a strong value play this week.
Other value options to consider at receiver include Tre Tucker of the Raiders, Ray-Ray McCloud of the Falcons, and Michael Wilson of the Cardinals. It’s also important to keep an eye on the Colts’ receiver situation since both Michael Pittman and Josh Downs are banged up, which could allow Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell to end up as great value plays as well.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Jake Ferguson vs. Detroit Lions – $5,000 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel
If Jakobi Meyers (ankle) is unable to play this week, Brock Bowers may be too good to pass up as a ceiling tight end, even with a new QB. For now, though, Ferguson has the highest ceiling projection of all tight ends on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregate projections. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position since his ceiling outpaces his salary so significantly.
Ferguson left Week 1 with an injury and missed Week 2, but he has been excellent in his three games since returning, finishing in the top 10 tight ends each week and exceeding salary-based expectations in all three of those games by averaging 6.3 catches for 71.3 yards per game. Ferguson has at least seven targets in each of those games and has over 11 DraftKings points in each contest, even though he hasn’t found the end zone yet this season. With Brandin Cooks (knee) on IR, Ferguson has established himself as the clear second option in the Cowboys passing attack behind Lamb.
The Lions gave up five catches and a touchdown to the Seahawks tight ends in their last game before their bye week. In what should be a very fantasy-friendly game environment, Ferguson should be involved enough to post a big number against Detroit this Sunday.
Top Value: Zach Ertz at Baltimore Ravens – $3,700 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
Sticking with our aggregate projection set, Ertz has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends on DraftKings and the sixth-highest on FanDuel, where he has the highest of any tight end under $6,000.
The veteran tight end has been a big part of the Commanders’ passing game this year. He had a season-high target total last week against the Browns but didn’t manage much production, with just 3.0 DraftKings points. He had four red-zone targets and eight targets overall, which could set him up for a big week if the passes keep coming his way. Before last week’s two-catch effort, Ertz had at least three catches in every game this season. He continues to show well in separation and route win rate metrics, and Daniels should continue to rely on him moving forward.
This week, Ertz will take on the Ravens, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards to tight ends. They have allowed an average of 73.6 receiving yards per game to the position including 90+ yards to Bowers and Ferguson when they faced them earlier this year. Although they have yet to allow a tight end touchdown, they’re a favorable matchup for Ertz in Week 6.
