The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Hurts at New York Jets – $8,200 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
With several big-name quarterbacks off the main slate this week, Jalen Hurts claims the top ceiling projection in FantasyLabs’, Raybon’s, and THE BLITZ projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Obviously, he also has the highest ceiling if you use a blended version of three-way aggregated projections (with a third to each of those three sets of projections). On FanDuel, the FantasyLabs projections even give Hurts the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Hurts passing yards were a little down early in the season, but he has picked that up with over 275 yards in each of the past three weeks. He has also thrown at least one touchdown in each of his first five games of the season. While his passing has been solid, his high ceiling is due mostly to his potential rushing production. Whether you call it the “tush push” or the “brotherly shove,” the Eagles have found an almost unstoppable way to rush for short yardage using Hurts. As a result, he has four rushing touchdowns in the last four weeks to go with his passing scores.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his past four games on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is also coming off his best fantasy showing of the season last week in Los Angeles. In that matchup with the Rams, he finished with 31.32 DraftKings points and 28.32 FanDuel points. He finished with a season-high 72 rushing yards and 303 passing yards while leading the Eagles to a 23-14 victory.
This week, Hurts and the Eagles are back on the road, taking on the Jets in New York. Even though the Jets defense is a solid unit, they’re a little banged up and have given up an average of 218.2 passing yards with at least one passing touchdown in each of their games. They’re a pretty neutral matchup overall, but Hurts has such a high ceiling with multiple ways to produce that he’s a relatively safe option to pay up and build around on Sunday. With the lack of other elite plays, Hurts is clearly the top ceiling play if salary is no obstacle.
Top Value: Matthew Stafford vs. Arizona Cardinals – $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
For the second straight week, Matthew Stafford stands out as the best value play at quarterback. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest Pts/Sal of all QBs on DraftKings in the three-way aggregated projections and the third-highest projected Plus/Minus of the QBs on FanDuel using the aggregated projections.
Last week, Stafford threw for 222 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles on his way to 16.88 DraftKings points and 16.88 FanDuel points. It was his lowest yardage total of the year since the Eagles controlled the ball and dominated the clock, but it was also his first game of the season with multiple passing scores. He got a boost in that contest from the return of Cooper Kupp. Kupp, Puca Nacua, and Tutu Atwell give him a strong receiving group.
On DraftKings, Stafford has exceeded salary-based expectations in two of the past four weeks and has been very consistent around his projection. He has averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game with an average of 290.2 yards per game and at least one passing touchdown in each matchup. The fact that he’s getting so much volume makes him a relatively safe play in this matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, including three touchdowns last week to Joe Burrow, three touchdowns to Daniel Jones, and an average of 274.4 passing yards per game over the first five weeks of the season.
The Rams have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, and their game has the highest over/under. Stafford has the third-highest ceiling projection on DraftKings according to the FantasyLabs projections and Raybon’s projections. Since he is the eighth-most expensive QB on this slate, there’s a ton of value in his upside in such a favorable spot at home against the Cardinals.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey at Cleveland Browns – $9,500 on DraftKings, $10,300 on FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey is back on the main slate, so he’s back as the top ceiling option at running back. FantasyLabs, Raybon, and THE BLITZ all have McCaffrey as the running back with the top ceiling projection this week on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
He’s off to an incredible start to the season and has been the perfect fit in coach Kyle Shanhan’s offense. He already has scored eight touchdowns in five games and averaged 102 rushing yards and 33.6 receiving yards per game to produce 28.8 DraftKings points per contest.
Even though he’s extremely expensive, he exceeded salary-based expectations in all but one of his games this season. That exception came last week when it was George Kittle who got the touchdowns in a rout of the Cowboys.
This week, McCaffrey and the 49ers will look to stay undefeated as they roll into Cleveland to face the Browns. The Browns are coming back from a bye week but are still expected to be without Deshaun Watson (shoulder). The game could turn into another rout as a result, so there is some concern that McCaffrey could be less involved to some degree. The Browns have also allowed the fourth-fewest DraftKings points to the position, so it isn’t an ideal spot.
However, McCaffrey’s ceiling is still too high to ignore if you are looking for upside and have the salary to spend. His role in such a productive offense and ability to go off for a monster game regardless of matchup still makes him worth considering.
If you can’t quite scrape together the salary, some other running backs that show well near the top of the model include Bijan Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and Travis Etienne Jr.
Top Value: Raheem Mostert vs. Carolina Panthers – $6,400 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
On DraftKings, Raheem Mostert has the 10th-highest salary of running backs, which makes him a huge value since his median projection, ceiling projection and floor projection rank second only behind McCaffrey in the FantasyLabs projections. He brings a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Mostert is more expensive on FanDuel, but he brings more leverage as a result.
He has actually exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his five games this season on DraftKings, even though he has been in a timeshare with the exciting rookie DeVon Achane (knee), who landed on IR and will be sidelined until at least Week 11. Without Achane to siphon off carries, Mostert has a very high ceiling against the Panthers in Week 6. In fact, he matches 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and no other running back on the slate matches more than nine. On FanDuel, his 11 Pro Trends rank second behind only McCaffrey’s 12 Pro Trends.
The Panthers have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs, and as a result, the Dolphins’ running backs Opponents Plus/Minus is the second-highest on the slate behind only the Saints’ running backs against the Texans. The Panthers have allowed an average of 128 rushing yards and 28.8 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs while allowing nine running back touchdowns in just five games.
So far this season, Mostert is averaging a healthy 5.4 yards per carry and has scored eight touchdowns this season. His biggest game came in Week 3 when he trambled the Broncos for four scores and 45.2 DraftKings points. Mostert only needed 13 carries in that game and has only gotten seven and 10 carries in his two games since. With more carries and catches coming his way Sunday, he’s a great option to build around with an extremely high ceiling.
The Dolphins have the highest Implied Team Total on the slate, and Mostert could be the main focus of the offense. He’ll likely be the primary back either way, but he could share more work if Jeff Wilson Jr. (ribs) is ready to return from IR. It will probably be a backfield blend either way, but with or without Wilson, Mostert should be the go-to option in this smash spot.
If you need salary relief at running back, some cheap values to consider are Dameon Pierce of the Texans and Rachaad White of the Bucs.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyreek Hill vs. Carolina Panthers – $9,300 on DraftKings, $9,800 on FanDuel
All three of the projections used for this post agree that Tyreek Hill has the highest ceiling of the wide receivers on the main slate this week on both DraftKings and FanDuel. In the three-way aggregate projection, he also brings the highest median projection on both sites.
Hill has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his five games this season, with at least eight catches, 150 yards and 33 DraftKings points in each of those three ceiling performances. Hill had an impressive 181 yards on eight catches last week against the Giants and scored his fifth touchdown of the year as well.
Coach Mike McDaniel has definitely found creative ways to get the ball into Hill’s hands in space, setting up the speedster to make multiple big plays. Without Achane, he could be called upon for more work as well in addition to Mostert carrying the load. He’s getting plenty of volume with an average of 9.8 targets per week for a 26.9% target share.
Hill will be in a neutral matchup against the Panthers, who have allowed double-digit catches by wide receivers in three of the past four weeks. They have also given up four wide receiver touchdowns in the past three weeks.
With all the points the Dolphins are expected to put up this week, Hill and Mostert both come with very high ceilings.
Top Value: Josh Downs at Jacksonville Jaguars – $4,100 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
Using the three-way blended projections, Downs has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of all the wide receivers on the DraftKings slate and is also tied for the second-highest Pts/Sal.
Downs gets a boost in value from the return of Gardner Minshew under center in place of the injured Anthony Richardson (shoulder). In the game that Minshew started earlier this season, Downs caught 8-of-12 targets for 57 yards against the Ravens. He faded back into the shadows when Richardson returned against the Rams but re-emerged last week with six catches on six targets for a season-high 97 yards against the Titans. Minshew took over in the middle of that game and will start this week against his former team in Jacksonville.
The Jags have given up bit games to slot receivers this season since clot corner Tre Herndon has struggled. The Bills tore up Jacksonville’s secondary last week in London, and their wide receivers finished with 297 receiving yards and two touchdowns. In their five games this season, the Jags have allowed six wide receiver touchdowns and an average of 180.4 yards per game to the position.
Minshew relies on his slot receiver as a safety net, and Downs should have a relatively high floor and a high ceiling as a result of the volume coming his way. The third-year pick out of North Carolina is still looking for his first NFL touchdown but has been targeted three times in the red zone. Especially on DraftKings, he’s the best bargain option at the position.
Downs’ teammate Michael Pittman Jr. has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the three-way aggregated projection on FanDuel, while Jonathan Mingo and Rondale Moore stand out as the best plays under $5K if you have to go cheap at a receiver spot on that site.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: T.J. Hockenson at Chicago Bears – $6,600 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce already did his thing on Thursday night, so on Sunday, the top ceiling spot at tight end goes to T.J. Hockenson, who has the highest ceiling projection in all three projection sets on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hockenson has been a key part of the Vikings’ passing game and could be in for even more work with Justin Jefferson (hamstring) on IR. The big tight end has averaged 7.8 targets per game and ranks third among tight ends with seven red zone targets. He actually has been quieter that past couple of weeks, but expect that to change in a hurry with all the extra volume coming his way with Jefferson sidelined.
The Bears have struggled all season in just about every way and have given up at least eight catches to tight ends in three of the past four weeks. Last week, Logan Thomas had a big game against them on Thursday Night Football, and Hockenson will look to attack the same weaknesses in their coverage.
Especially if Jordan Addison (ankle) is limited at all by his ankle, Hockenson should be very busy in this favorable matchup on Sunday. He has the highest projections across the board and should reward anyone who figures out a way to fit his salary under the cap.
Top Value: Logan Thomas at Atlanta Falcons – $3,500 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
There are a few tight ends that stand out as values this week, with Zach Ertz again showing well, along with Evan Engram, Kyle Pitts, and Tyler Higbee near the top of Pts/Sal and Projected Plus/Minus. My favorite of the group, though, is the Commanders’ Logan Thomas, who has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal on DraftKings using the three-way blended projections.
Thomas has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in each of his four games this season with an average Plus/Minus of 5.4 DraftKings points and 3.3 FanDuel points. He is coming off his best game of the season when he drew 11 targets against the Bears and hauled in nine catches for 77 yards and a touchdown last Thursday.
Even though he missed a game, Thomas is tied for the team lead in red zone targets and has a 17.1% target share in the three full games he played.
Another reason I like Thomas the best out of this group is that he gets a beautiful matchup against the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends this season. Opposing tight ends have scored three touchdowns against the Falcons this season and posted an average of 62.6 yards per game.
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