The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 6 NFL slate. We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $7,400 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
In a game with a 52.5-point total, the second-highest on the slate, the Week 6 matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers should line up as a high-scoring affair. As a dual-threat option, Lamar Jackson has the potential to reach a 75th-percentile outcome, especially facing a Chargers defense ranked 19th, according to PFF. Per the Trends tool, in matchups with a 50-point total or higher, Jackson averages 24.4 actual DraftKings points, with a +0.82 Plus/Minus rating.
So far this season, Jackson has averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, using a condensed receiving corps of Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews and more than six yards per rushing attempt, leading the Ravens with a 36% share of carries. With the Chargers currently 2.5-point underdogs, look for Justin Herbert to likely increase an already top-10 pass play rate (according to the RotoViz Pace and Snaps App), creating perfect bring-back options in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Top Value: Jared Goff vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $5,100 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel
Leading a Detroit Lions offense that averages 45 passing plays per game, the fourth-most, Jared Goff averages more than 260 passing yards per game. Although a tough matchup against a Cincinnati Bengals defense ranked seventh in DOVA, according to Football Outsiders, Goff provides a deep discount for lineups and could easily reach fantasy relevance, primarily through the air.
Goff prefers to spread the ball out among the receiving corps, signaling an opportunity for running back D’Andre Swift, tight end T.J. Hockenson, and wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond, all of who look to be viable stacking options.
Although Cincinnati averages the second-fewest passing plays in the league, the Bengals also provide plenty of bring-back options in Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd. Despite a 47.5-point total, the Lions are a 3.5-point underdog and should increase their pass-calling frequency.
Top Rostered: Taylor Heinicke vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $5,800 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
At 22% projected ownership, quarterback Lamar Jackson looks to be a popular choice this week in rosters, given his high-upside and dynamic playmaking ability. Playing in the highest total on the slate at 55.5-points, Washington Football Team Quarterback Taylor Heinicke also looks to be a popular choice for lineups this week, seeing 8.8% projected ownership. Heinicke gives lineups access to high-price Chiefs weapons in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, especially with a low $5,800 price tag on DraftKings.
Heinicke also faces a Chiefs defense ranked last in DVOA. As 6.5-point underdogs, expect additional looks to go toward wide receiver Terry McLaurin and tight end Ricky Seals-Jones, who saw 47% of Washington’s targets in Week 5. Either way, in a game with shootout potential, there are endless opportunities for unique stacking configurations.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey vs. Minnesota Vikings- $8,800 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
Keep an eye on the status in Week 6 for Panthers’ running back Christian McCaffrey, who missed Thursday’s practice. However, if he does return from a hamstring injury, McCaffrey can consistently reach a 75th-percentile outcome, given his volume of carries and through the passing game. Before an early Week 3 exit, McCaffrey carried the ball at least 20 times, averaging 3.78 yards per carry, also targeted 15 times through the first two weeks.
A meeting with the Vikings, however, is no easy task. Minnesota ranks as the eighth-best defense according to Football Outsiders.
If McCaffrey is ruled out, the top ceiling belongs to Austin Ekeler as of Friday morning. Be sure to check out the models leading up to lock as projections may fluctuate over the next few days.
Top Value: Darrell Henderson vs. New York Giants – $5,200 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
Facing a weak New York Giants rush defense with the sixth-worst rushing DVOA, Los Angeles Rams running back Darrell Henderson should see plenty of carries as the lead rusher for the Rams. Henderson is responsible for 57% of the Rams carries through the first five weeks, seeing 10 or more rushing attempts and averaging 4.90 yards per attempt.
As massive nine-point favorites, the Rams will likely lean heavily on Henderson toward the end of the game, in a clock-killing situation, and should reach fantasy relevance on volume, but could also be a candidate to see a rushing yard bonus on DraftKings specifically.
Top Rostered: D’Andre Swift vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $6,300 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
Darrell Henderson will likely be a popular option for lineups, projected for 26% ownership. At 22% projected ownership, Detroit Lions running back D’Andre Swift should also appear frequently in lineups, even in a tough matchup against a Bengals defense ranked seventh in rushing DVOA.
The all-purpose running back has seen five or more targets in every game, leading the Lions with an 18% target share. With the Lions’ tendency to pass, ranking third in the league in passing plays, expect Swift to see an increased workload aside from his split backfield work with Jamaal Williams. Swift’s status is worth monitoring, with the running back listed as questionable with a groin injury.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Davante Adams vs. Chicago Bears – $9,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
For the second consecutive week, Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams projects for the highest ceiling on the week. A preferred target for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Adams has been targeted 61 times, the most in the league (According to AddMoreFunds). Adams also benefits from a strong 0.30 correlation between Rodgers and Packers wide receivers, dating back to last season.
Even with a high price tag and a tough matchup against a Bears defense ranked fifth in DVOA, Adams is one of the few skill players who could be considered matchup proof. As part of a Green Bay offense that prefers to air out the ball, with a 59%/41% pass-to-run split, Adams can reach a 75th-percentile outcome, based on volume alone, seeing 11 or more targets in the last three games.
Top Value: Darnell Mooney vs. Green Bay Packers – $4,300 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
Opposite to Davante Adams, Chicago Bears wide receiver Darnell Mooney looks to be a perfect complement to Adams as part of a correlated piece, providing salary relief with a $4,300 price tag.
With a 25% target share, Mooney looks to be the preferred weapon in the Bears’ receiving corps, seeing five or more targets in four of the first five games of the season. Averaging 13.1 yards per reception and facing a Packers defense ranked 20th in DVOA allows Mooney to easily reach fantasy relevance, especially with the Bears likely forced to increase their passing volume as 4.5-point underdogs if they want to keep this NFC North rivalry competitive.
Top Rostered: Tee Higgins vs. Detroit Lions – $5,300 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
With 20.5% projected ownership, Tee Higgins will likely appear in plenty of rosters this week, mainly due to a prime matchup against the 29th DVOA-ranked Lions defense. In three games this season, Higgins has seen five or more targets, averaging 10 yards per catch, and is third in the Bengals receiving corps with a 23% target share, behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd.
Higgins should see a full allotment of targets, currently projected for 4.9 receptions in our models, giving quarterback Joe Burrow an additional weapon to move the ball down the field.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Washington Football Team – $7,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
It is almost an absolute if Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is on the slate, he will project to have the highest ceiling. In Week 6, Kelce gets a prime matchup against a Washington Football Team defense ranked 29th in pass DVOA. A preferred option for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Kelce is second in the Chiefs receiving corps with a 22% target share, seeing five or more targets in every game this season, and seeing 10 or more targets in two games, including a Week 5 38-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills, who rank first in Defensive DVOA.
In a matchup with the highest total on the slate, expect the looks toward Kelce’s way, especially in the red zone.
Top Value: Ricky Seals-Jones vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $3,000 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
Opposite to Kelce, Washington Football Team tight end Ricky Seals-Jones rates as the top value tight end for the second consecutive week. Taking over for the injured Logan Thomas, Seals-Jones saw nine targets, catching five passes for 41 yards in a 33-22 loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 5.
Facing a weak Kansas City Chiefs defense and looking to be one of the two preferred options for Heinicke, alongside Terry McLaurin, Seals-Jones provides access to the high-powered Chiefs offense, given his $3,000 DraftKings price tag, also posting a 96% bargain rating this week.
Top Rostered: Mark Andrews vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
Although Travis Kelce looks to be the most popular option at tight end, Mark Andrews should see additional rostership go his way, currently projected for 17% ownership. Despite the dual-threat tendencies of quarterback Lamar Jackson, Andrews is tied for the lead in target share among the Ravens receiving corps, seeing a 23% target share alongside wide receiver Marquise Brown. In Week 5, Andrews leads the Ravens with 13 targets, catching 11 passes for 147 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-25 win over the Indianapolis Colts.
Andrews should see a similar matchup against a Los Angeles Chargers defense ranked 18th in DVOA. Despite the Ravens’ more balanced 54%/46% pass-to-run split, expect Andrews to factor into Baltimore’s passing game, especially in the red zone, seeing five targets this season.
