In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
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Top NFL DFS Tight End Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three tight ends near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Zach Ertz
- Tyler Higbee
- Hayden Hurst
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other tight ends.
Top Model NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Zach Ertz ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks (50.5 total)
Zach Ertz has steadily produced for Arizona this year, with double-digit DraftKings points every week. He’s seen double-digit targets in three of five games, including last week, where he hauled in six catches for 48 yards. Ertz has some low-upside targets, as he’s averaging merely 8.2 yards per catch and a lowly 5.6 yards per target. However, with red-zone threat DeAndre Hopkins still sidelined, Ertz has some solid touchdown upside.
Ertz has run a route on 87%+ of dropbacks in every game and has seen at least 19% of the targets each week. The matchup is very enticing for Ertz, as Seattle has been a dumpster on the defensive side of the ball. They’re allowing a league-high 11.5 yards per target to opposing tight ends and an 11.4% touchdown rate.
He also performed well against Seattle last year, with stat lines of 9-88-2 and 7-84-0.
Ertz ranks toward the top in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary while leading our Tournament Model and Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Tyler Higbee ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-10) vs. Carolina Panthers (41.5 total)
Higbee has taken on a new role with the Rams this year, as he’s one of the focal points of the offense behind Cooper Kupp. He’s seen 24 targets over the team’s past two games, with double-digit DraftKings points in four straight contests.
Higbee has run a route on 85% of team dropbacks on the year, seeing 24% of targets and a strong 27% targets per route run. His average depth of target is a measly 3.6, as he’s being targeted quickly and close to the line of scrimmage. Higbee leads all tight ends in targets and catches on the year but is yet to find the end zone. Higbee is due for some positive touchdown regression, and it could come this week against Carolina.
Carolina is allowing a hefty 81.5% catch rate and 7.4% touchdown rate to opposing tight ends. Higbee has been targeted five times inside the 10-yard line, so some touchdowns should be coming for the big fellow.
Tyler Higbee leads our Cash Game Model this week.
Hayden Hurst ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints (43.5 total)
Hurst came to play against his old team last Sunday Night, catching six of seven targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. He’s run a route on 75% of team dropbacks on the year, seeing 15% of team targets. Tee Higgins battling injuries has boosted Hurst’s production, as he had a great performance last week, and he caught five of eight targets for 46 yards in Week 1 after Higgins left with an injury.
Hurst has also surpassed Boyd, as he has a higher target share (14.8% to 13.6%). If Higgins misses this contest or is confirmed to be limited, it puts Hurst squarely in play. Regardless, at such a cheap price tag, Hurst doesn’t need much to pay off his price tag.
The Saints have typically been very stout against opposing tight ends, but they’re currently banged up in the secondary. Paulson Adebo, Marshon Lattimore, and Marcus Maye all missed some practice time due to injuries.
Hurst leads Chris Raybon’s Pro Model this week.
Other Notable NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Travis Kelce ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (+3) vs. Buffalo Bills (54 total)
Travis Kelce had one of the strangest stat lines on Monday night, catching seven of eight targets for 25 yards and four touchdowns. He now has seven touchdowns on the year, with at least one in each of the past three games. With Tyreek Hill gone, Kelce’s role has changed slightly. He’s averaged a career-low 10.5 yards per reception and has less than 60 yards in three of five games on the year.
With Kansas City’s receivers still finding their groove, Mahomes will likely continue to look to Kelce in big moments. The matchup is fairly difficult, as Buffalo is allowing 4.8 yards per target to opposing tight ends and hasn’t surrendered a touchdown to any yet either. Kelce did have solid performances against Buffalo last year, with a 6/57/1 stat line in the regular season and 8/96/1 in the postseason.
Mark Andrews ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at New York Giants (45.5 total)
After being shut down by Buffalo in Week 4, Andrews rebounded against the Bengals on Sunday Night, hauling in eight of ten targets for 89 yards and a touchdown. He’s now seen at least 25% of team targets in four of five games. Andrews has put up 22+ DraftKings points in three of five games on the year and is averaging 18.8 DraftKings points per game.
The Giants haven’t been challenged by opposing tight ends so far, having faced Tennessee, Carolina, Dallas, Chicago, and Green Bay so far this year. They like to blitz and play a lot of man coverage, which are all good signs for Andrews. He is fourth in target rate per route run against man coverage and first among all tight ends.
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