In this piece, I highlight tight ends that stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
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Top NFL DFS Tight End Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two tight ends near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- T.J Hockenson
- Evan Engram
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other tight ends.
Top Model NFL DFS Tight End Picks
T.J. Hockenson ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Chicago Bears (43.5 total)
T.J. Hockenson started the year hot but has cooled off as of late. He has just seven catches for 75 yards over the past two games. He was barely utilized in Week 4 against Carolina but saw a healthy eight targets last week.
We likely won’t see a crazy target increase, as how much more volume can he get if he’s already seeing eight to ten targets a week? However, we can probably project him closer to the ten to twelve range, and that’s appealing in this matchup.
Chicago has allowed the highest catch rate to tight ends and a healthy 7.1 yards per target. Travis Kelce and Logan Thomas both eclipsed 65 yards and found the end zone against Chicago.
With the slate missing Kelce and Mark Andrews, there aren’t many tight ends who can match Hockenson’s ceiling. He has the highest ceiling projection by almost two points and is a strong play in all formats this week. He’s the top option in our Tournament Model.
Evan Engram ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (44 total)
Evan Engram can’t seem to find the end zone, but he’s consistently had a solid role in Jacksonville’s offense. He has seen eight targets in each of the past four games and has double-digit DraftKings points in three of four contests.
He had a fine day in Week 1 when these teams played, catching five of five targets for 49 yards. The Colts are giving up a lot of volume to tight ends, but it’s mostly on underneath routes, and opposing tight ends are yet to find the end zone against them.
Some more targets may open up with Zay Jones sidelined, and Engram is a talented player. He sticks out as underpriced this week, as he’s tied for second in Points/Salary and Projected Plus/Minus at the tight end position.
He’s the top option in our Cash Game Model, as well as Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Sam LaPorta ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (42.5 total)
Sam LaPorta made the most of his limited usage last week, catching three of four targets for 47 yards and two touchdowns. He’s been consistently involved in the offense, with at least five targets in every other game, including 11 in Week 3 against Atlanta.
He has a healthy 24% target rate per route run and has the big play upside that we look for out of tight ends. The only reason to be concerned is the overall lack of pass volume. Detroit is 31st in the NFL in dropback rate, which is somewhat due to them consistently being in positive game scripts. LaPorta is an intriguing option this weekend.
Dallas Goedert ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at New York Jets (41 total)
Dallas Goedert finally came to life last week, catching eight of nine targets for 117 yards and a touchdown. He totaled 21.8 DraftKings points over the first four weeks and trounced that with a 28.7-point performance against Los Angeles.
This shouldn’t be surprising, as he’s a focal point of the offense. Nick Sirianni has consistently said that the offense runs through Brown, Smith, and Goedert. The way matchups had gone the first few weeks, Goedert just hadn’t seen his usage. New York has allowed the second-highest touchdown rate and a middling 7.4 yards per target to opposing tight ends. I’ll go back to Goedert gladly this week.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick(s)
Zach Ertz ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+7) at Los Angeles Rams (48.5 total)
Zach Ertz didn’t see his usual volume last week, but he was able to find the end zone to salvage his day. He caught two of four targets for 10 yards and a touchdown en route to 9.0 DraftKings points.
He still ran a route on 83% of the dropbacks, so there’s no reason to panic. I’m happy to go right back to the well. He’ll need some volume to put up a big score, and this is the matchup for it. The Rams have allowed the third-most yards per target to opposing tight ends on the year.
Indianapolis tight ends totaled 107 yards and two touchdowns two weeks ago, and Dallas Goedert caught eight balls for 117 yards and a score last week.
I’ll happily go right back to Zach Ertz in this spot.
