Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Jake Ferguson ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)
Ferguson may not have entered the year as a top fantasy tight end, but he has quickly put himself in that conversation. He has a 21% target share in his four games played, which is a really strong number at a weak position. There are only seven players with a target share above 19% at tight end this season, and no one is above 26%.
Ferguson also benefits from playing for a fast-paced Cowboys offense. They’ve had at least 70 plays in two of their past three games, so they’re getting lots of opportunities to rack up fantasy points. That has allowed Ferguson to record at least seven targets in three straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each. He’s done that despite failing to catch a touchdown, which is easier said than done at tight end.
This week’s game vs. the Lions stands out as another solid spot for Ferguson. That game leads the slate with a 52.5-point total, and the Lions’ pass defense has been exploitable: they’re merely 21st in dropback EPA.
Overall, Ferguson has the top median and ceiling projections at the position despite checking in below the top tier from a pricing standpoint. That’s a tough combination to pass up.
Cade Otton ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
If you’re looking to go a bit cheaper at the position, Otton is someone who deserves consideration on DraftKings. He’s very affordable at just $3,500, and he’s one of the few every-down tight ends in football. His 85% route participation is the third-best mark at the position, trailing only Travis Kelce (87%) and Tyler Conklin (87%).
Otton didn’t get a ton of looks in the passing attack to start the season, but he has seen an uptick over the past three weeks. He has a 20% target share over that time frame, and he’s been at 17% or better in all three outings.
Like Ferguson, Otton has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games despite failing to find the endzone. If he can add a touchdown to his typical production, he has the potential to be one of the best values of the week at the position.
Try out our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Sam LaPorta ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
LaPorta should send Mark Andrews a thank you basket. If not for Andrews disappearing from the face of the planet, more people would be talking about LaPorta’s disastrous start to his season. After posting one of the best rookie TE seasons in history, he’s the No. 20 TE in PPR points per game through the first five weeks. He’s yet to crack double-figure fantasy points in a single game, something he did 10 times last season.
It’s not entirely LaPorta’s fault. The Lions have gone with an extremely run-heavy game plan in the past two weeks, which has limited his opportunities. He actually had a 21% target share in his last outing, but the Lions only threw the ball 19 times.
If the Lions do have to take to the air this week, LaPorta should still be one of their top options. The matchup vs. the Cowboys is a good one, with the team missing a bunch of key defenders due to injury. The Cowboys haven’t been good defensively even at full strength, so someone on the Lions should be able to put up a strong fantasy performance.
Brock Bowers ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
Bowers’ price tag continues to creep up, but it’s hard to argue against it after last week. He racked up 12 targets vs. the Broncos, which he converted into eight catches, 97 yards, and a touchdown.
Bowers should continue to benefit from the absence of Davante Adams. He had a 34% target share without Adams last week, and there’s a chance the team is even thinner in Week 6. Jakobi Meyers is officially questionable, though he was able to get in a limited practice on Friday.
Ultimately, Bowers has displayed one of the top ceilings at the position in his rookie season, and he’s projected for single-digit ownership across the industry.
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Ja’Tavion Sanders ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel)
If you’re looking for a punt play at the position, Sanders could be your guy. The rookie fourth-rounder started the year as a backup, but an injury to Tommy Tremble has opened the door for a larger opportunity. He had a strong 74% route participation in Week 5 and earned a respectable five targets. He finished with just three catches for 13 yards, but the opportunity is there for more moving forward.
Going with Sanders on DraftKings opens up a lot of avenues with the rest of your lineup. That type of lineup construction can pay dividends, with Sanders showing up in the Sim Labs optimal lineup at a roughly 6.6% clip. That far exceeds his projected ownership of 2.9%.
Dallas Goedert ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
Goedert is basically unplayable at $7,000 on FanDuel, which makes him the most expensive TE on the slate. With A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both back in the lineup, that’s simply too much.
But at $5,200 on DraftKings? That’s still reasonable enough to consider. Most people are going to write Goedert off now that the offense is back to full strength, but perhaps Goedert did enough over the past two weeks to earn a bigger role moving forward. After all, he’s historically been a big part of the offense when healthy, posting a target share around 20% alongside Brown and Smith last season.
Trey McBride ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
McBride has been up-and-down this season, but he’s coming off a nine-target game last week vs. the 49ers. He was expected to contend for the overall top spot at the position, and while he’s failed to reach that threshold, he’s still the No. 5 TE in terms of PPR points per game.
He’s another player who is being slightly overlooked this week, checking in with around six percent projected ownership across the industry.
