In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Raheem Mostert
- Joe Mixon
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Raheem Mostert ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-14) vs. Carolina Panthers (47.5 total)
With De’Von Achane on injured reserve, it’ll become the Raheem Mostert show until Jeff Wilson Jr. is activated. Mostert took 10 carries last week, running for 65 yards and a touchdown. In Weeks 1-2, before Achane had a role, Mostert had 70.6% and 70.4% of the backfield touches.
The matchup and environment are impeccable, as Miami is a home favorite of two touchdowns over the lowly Panthers.
Carolina has allowed the fourth-most yards per carry to opposing backs on the year while allowing the second-most rushing fantasy points. He also has a solid role in the passing game, totaling 17 targets through five weeks.
It’s hard to poke any holes in Mostert this week. He’s the top back in all four of our models this week and is a strong first click in all formats.
Joe Mixon ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (45 total)
It’s almost impressive that Joe Mixon was only able to score 13.4 DraftKings points last week. He was stopped on the 1-yard line multiple times and had 29 total touches. He had seven touches in goal-to-go situations and didn’t find the end zone once.
His lack of efficiency is infuriating, but his volume is positive. He had 29-of-31 backfield touches last week and has 91% of the backfield touches since Week 1. It’s tough to find many backs with this type of command in the backfield.
The matchup isn’t enticing, as Seattle has allowed the fewest yards per carry to opposing backs on the year. The bright spot is that the Seahawks have allowed five rushing touchdowns on the year. Mixon will likely need to find the end zone, but he’s a strong bet to do so with all his volume.
He’s the second-ranked back in three of our four models, looking like a strong play in all formats this weekend.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Alvin Kamara ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at Houston Texans (42.5 total)
Alvin Kamara has had great usage in his two games since returning, doing it in unique ways. He saw 11 carries for 51 yards in Week 4 but saw 14 targets, catching 13 balls for 33 yards. Last week, Kamara took 22 carries for 80 yards and a touchdown while catching three of three targets for 17 yards.
This spot sets up fairly nicely, but the matchup with Houston is not as good as it seems on the surface. The Texans have allowed just 3.71 yards per carry to opposing backs on the year. They have allowed five rushing touchdowns, which is inflating their fantasy points allowed.
Kyren Williams ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals (48.5 total)
He’ll certainly be owned, but Kyren Williams is one of my favorite options for the running back position this week. His role is elite, basically handling all of the running back work. He saw 15-of-16 backfield touches last week in a tough matchup. He hasn’t been the most efficient back, but that could change here, with Arizona allowing the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing backs and the third-most receiving points.
He’s a home favorite on a team with a high team total in an easy matchup. I’m not going to overthink it here.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Runningback Leverage Pick(s)
Chuba Hubbard ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (+14) at Miami Dolphins (47.5 total)
With Miles Sanders ruled out, Chuba Hubbard is expected to handle the bulk of the carries in Carolina. He’s already been seeing around 10 carries and a handful of targets, and now he’ll see a usage bump.
Hubbard has always been efficient, as he averaged 5.8 yards per touch last year. If Carolina can keep this game somewhat close, the matchup is in his favor. Miami ranks 19th in yards per carry to opposing backs. In case Miami does jump out to a lead, we could see Hubbard rack up some catches.
He’s currently not projecting to see a ton of ownership, but this likely will change. There’s not much leverage in this spot, but I don’t want to overthink a back this cheap getting ~15 touches. He’s a strong click in all formats.
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