Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Bucky Irving ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
A host of injuries at running back throughout the league is creating massive value at the position in Week 6. Irving stands out as one of the biggest overall risers.
He’s split the backfield work with Rachaad White through the first five weeks, but White is currently doubtful with a foot injury. As long as White doesn’t suit up, Irving should command an elite workload vs. the Saints.
Irving has already been a solid factor in the team’s ground game. He’s handled 42% of the team’s rushing attempts this season, which puts him just slightly behind White’s 47%. He’s also been highly efficient, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Irving has topped out at 10 carries in a game this season, but he should easily eclipse that mark with White sidelined.
The biggest benefit should come in the passing game. White has retained most of the pass-catching work out of the backfield, playing on 85% of the team’s long down and distance snaps. He owns a 13% target share for the year, compared to just 6% for Irving. If he can add the pass-catching work to what should be a robust rushing workload, Irving has the potential for an elite role.
The matchup vs. the Saints isn’t ideal—their defense is seventh in EPA per play this season—but the injury to Derek Carr could pay dividends. The Buccaneers are 3.5-point road favorites in Spencer Rattler’s first career start. If the Bucs can build a lead, it will likely be Irving killing the clock down the stretch.
Antonio Gibson ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
The other big injury development is up in New England. Rhamondre Stevenson will miss this week’s contest vs. the Texans, which opens the door for Gibson. Gibson has served as the team’s top backup this season, but he’s handled just 30% of the carries compared to Stevenson’s 61%.
Gibson has also been a focal point of the Patriots’ passing attack in recent weeks. That wasn’t the case in Week 5, but he was targeted on at least 25% of his routes run in Weeks 2, 3, and 4. Gibson has a proven track record as a pass-catcher, and he’s caught 88.9% of his targets while averaging 9.6 yards per target this season. Those are fantastic numbers.
With the Patriots handing the reigns to rookie Drake Maye this week, expect Gibson to be a big part of the game plan. Whether he’s getting carries or catching passes, he should be pretty busy.
Tony Pollard ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
Unlike the other two, Pollard doesn’t benefit from an injury situation this week. He should be looking at the same workload that he’s handled in his first four contests. That means he’ll cede some carries and pass-catching opportunities to Tyjae Spears, but that still leaves plenty of work for Pollard: He’s had at least 16 carries in three of four games, and he’s averaged four targets per contest. Additionally, Pollard has dominated the opportunities around the goal line, racking up 85% of the short-yardage carries.
What sets Pollard apart this week is his matchup. He’s taking on the Colts, who have been extremely generous with fantasy points so far this season. They’ve allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs, and they surrendered a career day to Tank Bigsby on the ground last week.
Pollard’s price tag is also too cheap across the industry. He has the fifth-highest ceiling projection in our Models, but he checks in with the 13th-highest salary. Add it all up, and he’s among the leaders at the position in projected Plus/Minus.
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Bijan Robinson ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Robinson was expected to seize the RB job in Atlanta by the horns in Year Two. Arthur Smith was gone, Kirk Cousins was in, and the coast was clear for a Robinson breakout.
Of course, things haven’t exactly gone to plan. Robinson has posted a negative Plus/Minus on DraftKings in four of his first five games, while backup Tyler Allgeier continues to outperform him. It’s leading some to wonder whether or not Robinson is going to be a massive bust.
There were at least some positive signs for Bijan in Week 5. He handled 65% of the team’s rushing attempts, which was his highest mark since Week 1. He also continues to dominate in the most important areas: He has 82% of the short-yardage snaps and 79% of the long down and distance.
As long as Robinson continues to get that type of volume, he possesses one of the best ceilings at the position. He’s a clear buy-low target at just $6,600 on DraftKings, where he leads the position with 11 Pro Trends and a 99% Bargain Rating.
Derrick Henry ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)
With so much value available on this slate, paying up for the top option at running back is certainly viable. There are a few candidates for that designation, but Henry leads the way from a ceiling perspective in our NFL Models.
The Big Dog got off to a shaky start in Week 1, but he has looked dominant since then. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past four games, including 37.4 FanDuel points in Week 4 vs. the Bills. He’s scored at least one touchdown in all five outings, and he remains one of the top big-play threats in all of football: No running back has as many carries of at least 20 yards this season (seven).
Henry is in an elite spot this week vs. the Commanders. This game has one of the highest totals on the slate at 51.5 points, and the Ravens are 6.5-point home favorites. Add those together, and the Ravens’ implied team total of 29.0 is the top mark on the slate.
Running backs tend to get more work as favorites than underdogs, so it’s no surprise that Henry has historically thrived in that role. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.14 as a favorite for his career, including a mark of +6.26 when favored by 4.5 or more (per the Trends tool).
Chuba Hubbard ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Hubbard continues to prove that he’s a really good early-down running back. He started the year splitting touches with Miles Sanders, but Hubbard has played him under the table. He’s averaged an elite 5.8 yards per carry, while Sanders is well behind at 3.6.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise that he’s continued to earn more of the opportunities. He’s had at least 67% of the rushing attempts in three straight games, culminating in a season-high 75% last week. That was only 13 carries in a game where the Panthers trailed throughout, but Hubbard still managed 97 rushing yards and a touchdown. He’s capable of making the most of whatever he’s given.
The potential game script is always an issue in Carolina, but Hubbard still has the second-highest FanDuel optimal rate in SimLabs.
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Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
It’s always tough to click on Gibbs in this price range. He’s a good player, but the fact that he has to split carries with David Montgomery is a nightmare for fantasy players. Gibbs has averaged just 13.75 carries per game this season, and he hasn’t been targetted in two straight.
Still, Gibbs has proven to be an elite pass-catcher in the past, and he already has a game with seven receptions this season. He also scored twice in the team’s last outing, so he can pile up fantasy points in a variety of ways.
Both he and Montgomery could feast in this matchup vs. the Cowboys. Their defense has been a disaster for most of the year, and they’re likely going to be without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence for the second straight week. Add in the fact that Detroit is coming off a bye, and this one could be uglier than the spread suggests.
Javonte Williams ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
The Broncos are riding a three-game win streak, thanks in part to a defense that has been much stronger than expected. They’re a top-three unit in both yards and points per game allowed, and their offense has shown some signs of improvement as well.
One of the biggest has been Williams at running back. He’s coming off a season-ending knee injury in 2023, and he had to shake the rust off in his first few games. However, he’s averaged at least 4.7 yards per carry in back-to-back games, so he’s starting to play significantly better.
If Williams continues to run effectively, it’s possible he carves out a larger role moving forward. Jaleel McLaughlin has been unable to duplicate his success from last season, while Tyler Badie is still recovering from a scary injury in Week 4. He’s a sneaky buy-low target vs. the Chargers.
James Conner ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
As usual, Conner heads into this slate as an overlooked option. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of five games this season, and he’s one of the few unquestioned workhorses in his team’s backfield. He does occasionally lose carries to Kyler Murray, but Conner has handled 83 of the team’s 116 RB carries (71.5%). That includes most of the short yardage and pass-catching work.
Still, Conner is looking at single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel vs. the Packers. Green Bay has a tough run defense, but Conner has succeeded in tough matchups before.
Chase Brown ($5,400 FanDuel)
Brown is only available on FanDuel’s main slate, which includes the Sunday Night Football contest between the Bengals and Giants. However, he’s a very intriguing option there.
Brown is still handling fewer snaps per game than Zack Moss, but he’s had more than 50% of the carries in back-to-back outings. He’s also been targeted on 28% of his routes run for the year, so the Bengals are committed to getting the ball in Chase’s hands. That’s not surprising: He’s averaged 5.6 yards per attempt this season, while Moss is at just 3.7.
Expect the gap to continue to widen between these two players. With Brown checking in at -$1,100 less than Moss on FanDuel, he’s the clear player to target in this backfield.
