In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Josh Allen
- Tom Brady
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Josh Allen ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (53.5 total)
Similar faces headline the quarterback article this week, as Josh Allen is coming off a monster performance against the Steelers. Allen threw for 424 yards and four touchdowns, running for another 42 yards on the ground en route to 39.16 DraftKings points. Gabe Davis’ return to form really stretched the field for Buffalo, as Allen led the league with a 13.5-yard depth of target last week, while 32.3% of his passes were 20 or more yards downfield.
Allen is as matchup-proof as it comes, but for what it’s worth, this matchup is unimposing. The Chiefs give up the fifth-most fantasy points per pass attempt while facing the second-most pass attempts per game. They’ve allowed the most fantasy points through the air to opposing quarterbacks on the year.
In case anyone forgot, Allen had his way with this Chiefs defense in their two matchups last season. He posted 315 yards and three touchdowns through the air to go along with 59 yards and a touchdown on the ground in Buffalo’s 38-20 Week 5 victory over Kansas City. Fast forward to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, where Allen had 329 yards passing and four touchdowns, to go along with 68 yards on the ground in Buffalo’s heartbreaking 42-36 overtime loss.
There isn’t much to say about Allen. He’s an absolute weapon. He was the No. 1 quarterback in all four models while also lapping the field in Projected Plus/Minus.
Tom Brady ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (44.5 total)
With the Buccaneers’ pass-catchers now healthy, we’re starting to see this offense round into their usual form. They took a more run-heavy approach over the first three weeks, with Brady attempting 103 passes over their first three games. With the receivers back for the past two games, Brady has attempted 104 passes.
Brady has put up 22.74 and 29.4 DraftKings points since his weapons returned. Tampa Bay had two drives stall deep in Atlanta territory last week, which could have led to touchdowns for Brady. Now, he gets a matchup with the lowly Steelers. Pittsburgh is allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt and a 5.2% touchdown rate, both ranking in the bottom quarter of the league.
This defense was just shredded by Josh Allen last week, giving up over 400 yards and four touchdowns through the air. Brady isn’t on Allen’s level, but he is one of the top quarterbacks in the league.
Brady ranks right behind Allen in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary. Allen leads all four models, but Brady ranks second in our Cash Game Model, Tournament Model, and Sean Koerner’s Pro Model. He ranks fourth in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Lamar Jackson ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at New York Giants (45.5 total)
After coming out guns-blazing to start the year, Lamar Jackson has come back to earth. He combined for 92.04 DraftKings points in Weeks 2-3 before combining for merely 30.82 DraftKings points in Weeks 4-5. His last two matchups came against the Bengals and Bills, who boast two of the toughest defenses in the league.
This matchup with the Giants is intriguing, as the new Giants’ defensive coordinator, Wink Martindale, coordinated the Ravens’ defense from 2018-2021. Martindale and Jackson are no strangers, so it’s going to be quite the chess match on Sunday. Neither Leonard Williams nor Azeez Ojulari played last week for the Giants, while D.J. Davidson and Adoree Jackson left last week’s game with injuries.
Injuries could make this matchup far more beatable for Jackson.
Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (53.5 total)
Patrick Mahomes vs. the Bills defense calls for another “bet on talent” spot. Mahomes is one of, if not the most talented quarterback in the league, throwing for seven touchdowns in the past two weeks. The Bills defense, on the other hand, has allowed a league-low 7.4 fantasy points per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks. Buffalo was able to stymy Mahomes in last year’s regular season matchup, as he threw for 272 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.
In the playoffs, it was a different story. Mahomes exploded for 43.02 DraftKings points in the Divisional Round, with 447 total yards and four touchdowns. Mahomes stacks will be a nice way to get exposure to the highest total game of the weekend.
Geno Smith ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (50.5 total)
Geno Smith has been perhaps the most surprising aspect of the 2022 NFL season. Outside of a 7.08 DraftKings point stinker in Week 2, Smith has averaged 24.70 DraftKings points per game, including 27.21 over his past three games. Geno has started games hot, with a league-leading 0.54 EPA per dropback in the first half. With how weak Seattle’s defense has been, we could be in for a back-and-forth affair.
Arizona has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt, and a 4.6% touchdown rate this season, both ranking in the bottom third of the league. The Cardinals’ defense also loves to blitz, as they blitz at the third-highest rate in the league. Smith has a 123.6 rating against the blitz, completing 90.9% of his passes for 198 yards and two touchdowns. This Geno resurgence has all of us somewhat puzzled, but there’s no reason to hop off of the train now.
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