In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Trevor Lawrence
- Matthew Stafford
- Joshua Dobbs
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Trevor Lawrence ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) vs. Indianapolis Colts (44.5 total)
Trevor Lawrence showed up at the best time, throwing for over 300 yards and a touchdown in a big win over Buffalo in London. It was his first game over 20 DraftKings points this year, as it’s been somewhat of a lackluster showing for him thus far.
He has just five passing touchdowns to five turnovers in five games and is averaging just 16.3 DraftKings points per contest.
Week 1 against this same Colts defense was one of his better outings of the season. He threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns while adding 21 yards with his legs. Indianapolis is allowing the eighth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks, and that’s come while allowing very few touchdowns.
This means that the touchdown numbers are likely to regress, and some big quarterback scores are coming against them.
Lawrence is third in Projected Plus/Minus at the quarterback position and looks poised to attack this unimposing Colts defense. He’s the top option in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model and our Cash Game model.
Matthew Stafford ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals (48.5 total)
The return of Cooper Kupp is sure to boost Matthew Stafford‘s fantasy output. Kupp and Nacua put up solid performances last week, but Stafford still posted another average score. He finally threw for multiple touchdown passes but amassed just 222 yards en route to 16.88 DraftKings points against Philadelphia.
This Arizona defense has gotten picked on repeatedly despite facing some poor quarterbacks. They’ve allowed four quarterbacks to post top-12 scores, including Sam Howell and Daniel Jones.
Stafford comes in with the third-highest ceiling projection on the week despite being the ninth-priced quarterback. This Arizona defense was exactly the antidote Joe Burrow needed, as he totaled 27.38 DraftKings points last week compared to 34.42 over his first four games combined.
Stafford won’t do much, if anything, with his legs. However, he should have enough efficiency in this matchup to pay off his tag. He’s the top quarterback in our Tournament Model.
Joshua Dobbs ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+7) at Los Angeles Rams (48.5 total)
Joshua Dobbs got some steam last week, and he was one of my favorite options. He started strong, but the Arizona offense couldn’t capitalize on garbage time, leading to a poor fantasy score. When players like Dobbs fail, fantasy players are quick to say, “I’m never playing him again.”
All the reasons we liked Dobbs last week still apply, and he’s in play once again. This Rams defense isn’t a pushover, ranking in the top half of the league in completion rate allowed, touchdown rate, and yards per pass attempt.
We need Dobbs to use his legs more, as he had just one rushing yard last week. He had added at least four DraftKings points on the ground over the past three games, so I’m hopeful he’ll return to form quickly.
I’m ready to hop right back on the Dobbs train, and so is Sean Koerner, as Dobbs is the top quarterback in his Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-14) vs. Carolina Panthers (47.5 total)
The Giants didn’t put up much resistance last week, which led to a solid but not great game from Tua Tagovailoa. He completed 73% of his passes for 308 yards and two touchdowns while throwing two interceptions.
It’s unclear if Carolina is going to put up a fight this year, but the matchup is certainly great for Miami’s signal-caller. Carolina has the sixth-lowest pressure rate, so it’s all systems go for Miami. The Dolphins have played two teams with lower pressure rates, and Tagovailoa put up 32.14 and 31.36 DraftKings points.
Carolina likely won’t provide Miami with a back-and-forth shootout, but Tagovailoa should still have a great fantasy day.
Joe Burrow ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (45 total)
Joe Burrow looked like his old self last week. He completed 78% of his passes, throwing for 317 yards and three touchdowns. As touched on earlier, Burrow’s total last week almost exceeded his total points on the year through the first four games.
He now gets a matchup with a Seattle defense that is a pass funnel. Seattle has allowed the lowest yards per carry to opposing backs on the year while facing the most pass attempts per game. Burrow has over 40 pass attempts in three of the past four weeks and will likely be chucking it again this week. Look for Burrow to put up another strong score.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Quarterback Leverage Pick(s)
Justin Fields ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Chicago Bears (+3) vs. Minnesota Vikings (44 total)
I was early to the Justin Fields‘ party, highly touting him in Weeks 2 and 3, where he totaled just 28.4 DraftKings points. It was a delayed reaction, as he’s balled out the past two weeks, throwing for eight touchdown passes and going for 32.9 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.
Early ownership projections aren’t showing much love for Fields, which is surprising to me. He’s currently outside the top 10 in projected ownership at quarterback. I’m expecting it to creep up, but his ownership won’t be outsized.
Minnesota has allowed the second-highest completion rate on the year, and they blitz at the highest rate in the league. Fields has been stellar against the blitz in his career as a passer, and blitzes may give him more opportunities to escape as a runner.
Sign me up for Fields in this spot.
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