Matthew Freedman publishes comprehensive positional breakdowns for the main NFL DFS slate throughout each week.
We’ll highlight one of the top players from each position (according to our Models) and his analysis of their outlooks below, but be sure to check out the full versions of each breakdown for the best cash-game and GPP plays for Week 6.
QB Breakdown
Patrick Mahomes: Kansas City Chiefs (-5) vs. Houston Texans, 55 Over/Under
Given that ownership will be concentrated for this slate since the London game is on Sunday morning and there are four teams on bye, you actually might be justified in asking yourself this question: “Should I fade Mahomes at home?”
While you might not want to go with Mahomes in cash games because of his high salary, for guaranteed prize pools, a full fade would probably be unwise.
>> Read the full QB breakdown here
RB Breakdown
Mark Ingram: Baltimore Ravens (-11.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 48 Over/Under
It’s easy to undermine what Ingram has done this season because he has only nine targets and looks like a downright plodder. And even though I’m something a longtime Ingram stan, even I must admit that his production this year has been amazingly uneven.
Even so, Ingram is the No. 6 FanDuel back with 16.9 points per game. What does it matter that he has a +4.96 Plus/Minus with only a 40% Consistency Rating? That just means he’s too risky for cash games but perfect for tournaments.
There’s really a lot to like about Ingram.
>> Read the full RB breakdown here
WR Breakdown
DeAndre Hopkins: Houston Texans (-4.5) at Kansas City Chiefs, 55 Over/Under
In only one week this year has Hopkins been a top-12 fantasy receiver. He’s No. 27 at the position with 15.9 DraftKings points per game. At 12.7% ownership on the main slate, Hopkins has a painful -2.06 Plus/Minus and 20% Consistency Rating.
But let’s not get carried away by Nuk’s short-term production. If you peruse the FantasyLabs Trends tool, you’ll see that no other player currently in the league has averaged more than Hopkins’ 20.8 DraftKings points per game since 2017, when Watson joined the team at quarterback.
So we’re stuck with Nuk as probably the best receiver in football, and although his recent struggles aren’t ideal, they are at least explainable.
>> Read the full WR breakdown here
TE Breakdown
Austin Hooper: Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals, 51.5 Over/Under
This is now the fifth week this season Hooper has been at the top of at least one of our Models.
Here’s what I had to say about him in the Week 3 TE Breakdown.
In full disclosure, I’m not that interested in him. Definitely not in cash. Almost certainly not in tournaments. Hooper is just the type of tight end I never want to roster.
He’s just good enough to be a low-end TE1. But he’s not reliable enough to trust in cash games. And Hooper’s not dynamic enough to make me want him in guaranteed prize pools.
Yeah. About that. I was wrong. So wrong.
In the three games since I typed that, Hooper has gone off for 21-252-2 receiving on 27 targets. He’s now the No. 2 DraftKings tight end with 17.5 points per game.
>> Read the full TE breakdown here
