The Week 6 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 18, at 1 p.m. ET.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models.
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Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 6 fantasy football rankings (as of Wednesday morning).
- Gardner Minshew: No. 7
- Matthew Stafford: No. 8
- Kirk Cousins: No. 16
- Cam Newton: No. 24
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.
Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.
Gardner Minshew: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions (54.5 Over/Under)
It might seem weird for Minshew to be No. 7 in our rankings, but it’s worth remembering that Dak Prescott (ankle, IR), Russell Wilson (bye) and Justin Herbert (bye) are inactive, and all of them have outscored Minshew this year on a per-game basis.
There’s simply less quarterback competition this week.
But Minshew has also been serviceable this year, ranking No. 14 at the position with 22.5 fantasy points per game and No. 7 with 21.7 expected fantasy points per game (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary).
In four games, he has either passed for 300-plus yards or thrown three-plus touchdowns.
- Week 1 (vs. IND): 20.8 fantasy points | 173-3-0 passing | 5-19-0 rushing
- Week 2 (at TEN): 23.5 fantasy points | 339-3-2 passing | 4-19-0 rushing
- Week 3 (vs. MIA): 9.2 fantasy points | 275-0-1 passing | 3-22-0 rushing
- Week 4 (at CIN): 20.9 fantasy points | 351-2-1 passing | 2-9-0 rushing
- Week 5 (at HOU): 19.8 fantasy points | 301-2-0 passing | 4-18-0 rushing
In three games this year, he has been a fantasy QB 1, and in only two career games has he not been at least a QB2 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
Even from his first NFL game, Minshew has had a high floor, thanks partially to his running ability (22.7 yards rushing per game), and in his second season he has progressed as a passer based on completion and touchdown rates and adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A).
- 2019 (14 games): 60.6% completion | 4.5% touchdown | 7.3 AY/A
- 2020 (five games): 69.9% completion | 5.1% touchdown | 7.4 AY/A
What really gives Minshew an edge this week is his matchup against the Lions, who allowed a league-high 503.2 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game last year (per AirYards.com).
AirYAC (air yards plus yards after the catch) is a leading and simple-to-understand indicator of fantasy output.
Would be secondary savior Jeffrey Okudah has been especially egregious. Selected No. 3 overall, the rookie cornerback missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury, and in Weeks 2-4 he allowed an embarrassing 12.5 yards per target and 73.7% completion rate on his way to a dead-and-bloated 27.6 coverage grade, ranking last among all qualified cornerbacks (per Pro Football Focus).
He was so bad in Weeks 2-3 that the Lions started second-year fifth-rounder Amani Oruwariye ahead of him and used Okudah just as a rotational defender.
Coming off the Week 5 bye, Okudah and the Lions secondary might be better, but they will still be without slot cornerback Justin Coleman (hamstring, IR), and under defense-focused head coach Matt Patricia, the team has always been vulnerable against the pass.
- 2018: 66.8 PFF coverage grade (29th)
- 2019: 50.3 PFF coverage grade (27th)
- 2020: 43.7 PFF coverage grade (27th)
As the poet once said, “Rich and growing sicker.”
Opposing quarterbacks are No. 4 against the Lions with 2.5 touchdowns total per game.
Given that Jaguars-Lions has the slate’s highest over/under, Minshew has the potential go off for multiple touchdowns in a pass-heavy high-scoring back-and-forth contest.
A solid QB1 this week in season-long leagues, Minshew is an affordable low-risk play in DFS.
He is the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales and Raybon Models for DraftKings, where Minshew has a position-high floor projection. He is also the top option in the Raybon and Hodge Models for FanDuel, where Minshew leads all quarterbacks with his +5.01 Projected Plus/Minus.
Salaries: $6,400 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Matthew Stafford: Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (54.5 O/U)
Before suffering a season-ending back injury, Stafford last year was the No. 6 quarterback with 24.7 fantasy points per game in Weeks 1-9, setting career-high marks with a 9.1 AY/A and 6.5% touchdown rate.
He hasn’t come close to those numbers this year with just 20.8 points per game, a 7.6 AY/A and a 5.8% touchdown rate.
But half of Stafford’s games this year have been without No. 1 wide receiver Kenny Golladay, who missed Weeks 1-2 with a hamstring injury, and in his absence Stafford had his two worst games of the season. Under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, Stafford has exhibited notable (albeit small-sampled) splits with Golladay (per RotoViz Game Splits App).
Stafford has a good matchup against the Jaguars, who are dead last with a 44.1% pass-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
In all five games this year, the Jags have allowed opposing quarterbacks either 300-plus yards passing or three-plus total touchdowns.
On top of that, the Jags are injured. Last week, they were without No. 1 perimeter cornerback C.J. Henderson (shoulder), No. 1 slot cornerback D.J. Hayden (hamstring), No. 1 coverage linebacker Myles Jack (ankle) and No. 1 edge rusher Josh Allen (knee), and none of them is certain to return in Week 6.
Against backup cornerbacks Sidney Jones and Chris Claybrooks, Golladay and fellow receiver Marvin Jones Jr. have highly exploitable matchups: They could gift 200 yards and two touchdowns to Stafford all on their own.
A mid-range season-long QB1 this week, Stafford is an upside DFS play and the No. 1 quarterback in the Koerner Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high seven Pro Trends.
Salaries: $6,300 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Kirk Cousins: Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (54.5 O/U)
Maybe you’ve noticed the trend: Quarterbacks in high-scoring games. Gotta get dem points.
Cousins is no one’s idea of a desirable fantasy quarterback. When I think of him, I explicitly think, “I want you not.”
Even with his nice 69.0% completion rate with the Vikings, the dude has real accuracy issues on occasion.
Any Kirk Cousins news presents a good time to remind everyone about his gender reveal throwing abilitypic.twitter.com/nU6rxjacWm
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 2, 2020
This season, Cousins is No. 32 at the position with 13.9 expected fantasy points per game, and he has the ignominious distinction of having the worst single-game quarterback performance of the year, completing just 42.3% of his attempts for 113-0-3 passing and -1.5 fantasy points against the Colts in Week 2.
Perhaps this best puts Cousins’ 2020 performance in context.
- Dwayne Haskins (2020, four games): 16.5 fantasy points per game
- Kirk Cousins (2020, five games): 16.4 fantasy points per game
The grave is Cousins’ floor.
But this week the heavens might be his ceiling.
Opposing quarterbacks are No. 1 in the league against the Falcons with 30.2 fantasy points per game on 1,728-15-2 passing and 17-96-3 rushing.
What I’m about to show you is definitely not safe for work.
- Russell Wilson (Week 1): 31.8 fantasy points | 322-4-0 passing | 3-29-0 rushing
- Dak Prescott (Week 2): 39.8 fantasy points | 450-1-0 passing | 5-18-3 rushing
- Nick Foles & Mitchell Trubisky (Week 3): 28.8 fantasy points | 316-4-2 passing | 4-42-0 rushing
- Aaron Rodgers (Week 4): 29.6 fantasy points | 327-4-0 passing | 1-5-0 rushing
- Teddy Bridgewater (Week 5): 20.8 fantasy points | 313-2-0 passing | 3-3-0 rushing
Filthy.
No one ever wants to start Cousins in fantasy, but according to the flow chart …
- Is the player a quarterback? If no, stop. If yes, continue.
- Is the player facing the Falcons? If no, stop. If yes, continue.
- Is the player a starter? If no, stop. If yes, continue.
- Is the player healthy? If no, maybe play him. If yes, definitely play him.
… he is someone to play this week.
And the Vikings are a team to bet on. They have struggled to a 1-4 record, but this is a get-right spot.
Since head coach Mike Zimmer joined the team in 2014, the Vikings are 63-37-1 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season, good for an A-graded 22.2% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).
And as you might expect with an ATS record that good, Zimmer has exhibited all sorts of regular-season edges throughout his tenure.
- At home: 30-16-1 ATS | 30.8% ROI
- As favorite: 36-20-1 | 24.9% ROI
- Outside of division: 45-18-1 | 38.2% ROI
These trends make sense within the context of who Zimmer is as a coach and what kind of team the Vikings have been under him.
Zimmer is a focused, no-nonsense, risk-adverse, process-oriented, defense-directed “manager” (for lack of a better word), and the Vikings have historically been a disciplined team that doesn’t often make big mistakes.
They don’t waste the natural advantage they have at home. They don’t play down to the level of their underdog opponents. They don’t present a known and easy challenge to teams that aren’t familiar with them.
This week, the Vikings are in a “solar eclipse” spot with all of Zimmer’s historical edges lining up.
As non-divisional home favorites, the Vikings are 19-4-1 ATS (59% ROI).
Shine on, you crazy diamond. You can bet on this game at DraftKings.
The Falcons are without two secondary starters in slot cornerback Darqueze Dennard (hamstring, IR) and safety Damontae Kazee (Achilles, IR). Cousins has a real chance to dominate this week.
A QB2 with upside in season-long leagues, Cousins is a viable candidate for guaranteed prize pools in DFS.
Cousins is the No. 1 quarterback in the SportsGeek and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +3.93 Projected Plus/Minus.
He also is the top option in the CSURAM88, Koerner, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel.
Salaries: $6,100 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Cam Newton: New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
Newton’s No. 24 ranking will almost certainly change as the week progresses.
Right now, Koerner has Newton at No. 5, fully assuming he will play and be the player he was before going on the COVID-19 list.
Conversely, Raybon has Newton ranked No. 31 — and remember that only 28 teams are scheduled for this week. Raybon is essentially projecting Newton not to play.
And I’m in the middle: I expect Newton to start, but I also project him to run far less than he did in Weeks 1-3. My thinking is that he might be well enough to suit up but not well enough to play at full capacity.
If I see positive practice reports for Newton throughout the week, I will likely bump up his rushing projection, and if that happens, he’ll probably be in my top eight by Sunday. I’m still in on Newton.
Newton was my go-to late-round quarterback in 2020 fantasy drafts, and he has not disappointed.
- Week 1 (vs. MIA): 25.7 fantasy points | 155-0-0 passing | 15-75-2 rushing
- Week 2 (at SEA): 35.6 fantasy points | 397-1-1 passing | 11-47-2 rushing
- Week 3 (vs. LV): 11.2 fantasy points | 162-1-1 passing | 9-27-0 rushing
OK, he disappointed in Week 3, but the Patriots won by 16 points: The team didn’t need him to put up fantasy points to win.
Even with his modest performance against the Raiders, Newton is No. 3 with 26.5 expected fantasy points per game and No. 7 with 26.2 fantasy points per game.
The Broncos have allowed every quarterback to face them this year to score at least 18 fantasy points.
- Ryan Tannehill (Week 1): 19.4 fantasy points | 249-2-0 passing | 3-14-0 rushing
- Ben Roethlisberger (Week 2): 18.2 fantasy points | 311-2-1 passing | 3-minus 2-0 rushing
- Tom Brady (Week 3): 23.9 fantasy points | 297-3-0 passing | 5-0-0 rushing
- Sam Darnold (Week 4): 23.6 fantasy points | 230-0-0 passing | 6-84-1 rushing
Without No. 1 cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder, IR), the Broncos are starting undrafted rookie Essang Bassey as their slot defender, and I got to say: That sounds like a bad idea.
Through four games, Bassey has allowed 8.6 yards per target with an 85.7% catch rate on his way to a 47.2 PFF coverage grade. No. 1 receiver Julian Edelman could have a massive game in the slot.
You can use our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool to research the overlapping production of passers and receivers, and in their three games together Newton and Edelman have a 0.98 correlation. The sample is small, but it’s suggestive. For tournaments, use our Lineup Builder to stack Newton with his top receiver.
A season-long QB1 when healthy, Newton is a risk-seeking DFS play with upside.
Newton is the No. 1 quarterback in the CSURAM88 and Hodge Models for DraftKings and the Bales Model for FanDuel.
Salaries: $6,500 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside
In this section, I highlight some quarterbacks I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (48 O/U): On the Week 6 Fantasy Flex show, I talk about my low early-week ranking of Jackson (knee), who was hampered by an injury last week when he was just 2-3-0 rushing. Monitor practice reports for Jackson, who is No. 21 with just 18.6 expected fantasy points per game but gets a bounceback matchup against the Eagles, who have allowed 20-plus fantasy points to every non-Dwayne Haskins starting quarterback they’ve faced. Salaries: $7,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (54 O/U): No. 1 wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) is likely to return from injury, and Rodgers has regained his MVP form with 1,214-13-0 passing on a 70.5% completion rate. For his career, Rodgers is an A-graded 113-78-5 ATS (15.7% ROI) …
… and he’s the NFL’s most profitable regular-season quarterback off the bye, going 8-2-1 ATS (50.2% ROI). You can bet on this game at FanDuel. Salaries: $7,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (Off the Board): As a passer, Watson seemingly hasn’t missed former No. 1 wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins all that much.
Against HC Mike Vrabel’s Titans defense, Watson has averaged 25.0 DraftKings and 24.0 FanDuel points in three games (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool). Salaries: $7,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins (-8.5) vs. New York Jets (47.5 O/U): In his 16 games since fully taking over for Josh Rosen as the starter last year, Fitzpatrick is No. 5 with 22.0 expected fantasy points per game and is a stellar 4,438-25-14 passing, 74-355-6 rushing and 11-5 ATS (33% ROI).
You can bet on this game at William Hill. The Jets are No. 31 in the league with a 26.9% pass-defense DVOA. Salaries: $5,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans (Off the Board): Nos. 2-3 receivers Corey Davis (COVID-19) and Adam Humphries (COVID-19) might return, and Tannehill was his usual efficient self off the outbreak-induced bye with 195-3-0 passing and 4-42-1 rushing on Tuesday Night Football. In Tannehill’s eight home games as the Titans starter, the over is 7-1 (72.6% ROI).
Salaries: $5,900 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Joe Flacco, New York Jets (+8.5) at Miami Dolphins (47.5): The Dolphins are No. 29 with a 42.4 PFF coverage grade. If not now for the elite Super Bowl-winning Flacco, when? Salaries: $5,100 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Matthew Freedman is 648-519-26 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Kirk Cousins
Photo credit: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images
