This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.
Week 6 shmoney time.
Quarterback
- Matt Ryan ($6,400 DK) at ARI
- Lamar Jackson ($8,200 FD) vs. CIN
Thanks to a position-leading Projected Plus/Minus of +4.2, Matt Ryan projects as the lone Tier 1 QB play on DraftKings. Since 2018, QBs projected for +4.0 or better in our NFL Player Models are averaging 21.3 DK points, a +3.9 Plus/Minus and 65% Consistency Rating. Ryan is yet to throw for under 304 yards and has tossed multiple scores in four of five games, and that should continue against a Cardinals defense ranked 27th in pass-defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Also, it helps that his own defense is ranked 27th in overall DVOA. As of this writing, 71% of bets and 91% of money is on over 51.5 in Falcons-Cardinals (see live odds here).
It goes overlooked that Lamar Jackson‘s career as a starting quarterback began with the cakiest slate of cake matchups he could have possibly asked for. Last season, each of his first five starts came against defenses ranked bottom-seven by DVOA: the Bengals (27th), Raiders (30th), Falcons (31st), Chiefs (26th), and Buccaneers (32nd). And this season, he got the pleasure of opening against the Dolphins (currently ranked 32nd) and Cardinals (30th). Predictably, Jackson steamrolled them, and a star was born. But against the three other defenses he faced last year (12th-ranked Browns, eighth-ranked Chargers twice) — and the three others he faced this year (seventh-ranked Steelers, 12th-ranked Browns, 18th-ranked Chiefs), he’s still been aight, but far from a lock.
- Jackson vs. defenses 26th or worse in DVOA: 22.2 FD points, +6.0 Plus/Minus, 100% Consistency (7 games)
- Jackson vs. defenses 18th or better in DVOA: 20.4 FD points, +3.0 Plus/Minus, 60% Consistency (6 games)
As luck would have it, his opponent this week, the Bengals, rank 31st, giving him the hat trick of facing bottom-three defenses just six weeks into the season.
Who is this rogue schedule maker that made sure Jackson and the Patriots defense are paying off? I want answers.
And I want Jackson in my FanDuel lineups. He’s the only QB whose Plus/Minus projection is north of +.4.0, and passers coming in at that level or above have posted 22.3 FD points per game with an average Plus/Minus of +5.3 and a Consistency Rating of 73% at home since 2018. Jackson is primed to chew up and spit out yet another bottom-tier defense.
For more on QBs, check out Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 6 Fantasy QB Breakdown.
Running Back
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