In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three wide receivers near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Tyreek Hill
- Marquise Brown
- Wan’Dale Robinson
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers.
Top Model NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Tyreek Hill ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-12.5) vs. New York Giants (47.5 total)
Tyreek Hill‘s usage to start the season has been nothing short of spectacular. He’s averaged a massive 3.92 yards per route run while seeing a 27% first-read target rate per route.
We’ve seen New York consistently deploy a blitz-heavy approach, which is great news for Hill. With Tagovailoa under center and blitzed, Hills has seen 35.7% of the targets and 4.51 yards per route run. His numbers are still great when teams don’t blitz, at 30.9% and 3.36 respectively.
Hill’s ceiling is truly incredible, highlighted by a 47.5-point performance in Week 1 and a 33.7-point performance in Week 3. If New York can somewhat keep pace with Miami this week, Hill may run rampant.
To the surprise of no one, he’s the top option in our Tournament Model.
Marquise Brown ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (44.5 total)
Marquise Brown has maintained a huge role in the Arizona offense to start the year. He’s run a route on 96% of the dropbacks while seeing a 27% target share and 40% share of the team air yards. His 26% first-read target rate per route is very encouraging, showing that the team is trying to get the ball into his hands.
He’s had a healthy 11.6-yard average depth of target as well. The 27% target share on the year is promising, but it’s bogged down from a lackluster Week 1. Brown has seen target shares of 34.5%, 33.3%, and 24.4% over the past three weeks.
The matchup is positive, with Cincinnati allowing 9.4 yards per target and a league-high 18.7 yards per completion to opposing perimeter receivers.
Brown is tied for fifth in Points/Salary at the receiver position while being the top receiver in our Cash Game Model and Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): New York Giants (+12.5) at Miami Dolphins (47.5 total)
Wan’Dale Robinson has worked his way back from injury and is carving out an elite role in this offense. He ran a route on 64% of the dropbacks last week, seeing a 22% first-read target rate and 27% target share. He saw six targets last week, catching five balls for 40 yards.
There’s not much to deliberate here, as he sees an elite target rate per route and is priced at the minimum. Miami has allowed the 10th-most DraftKings points to opposing receivers on the year, so the matchup is nothing to worry about.
Robinson is a great play in all formats and makes a ton of lineups work with his extremely cheap price tag.
He’s the top option in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-3) Arizona Cardinals (45 total)
With Tee Higgins unlikely to suit up this weekend, Ja’Marr Chase is projected to be one of the highest-owned players on the week. I was all over Chase last week, and he let me down with just 14.3 DraftKings points. This matchup is definitely a plus, with Arizona ranking in the bottom six in yards per target, catch rate, and yards per catch to opposing wide receivers.
The loss of Higgins should open up more volume, but probably not too much. Chase saw 33.3% of the team targets last week and hasn’t seen less than 8 in a game this season. He’s going to be very high-owned, and that gives me reason for pause. This offense has struggled mightily on the year, and I’m not sure I want to buy in at this time.
Higgins (ribs) was listed as questionable Friday, be sure to follow his status throughout the weekend.
Nico Collins ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Houston Texans (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons (41.5 total)
Nico Collins delivered big time in Week 4, catching seven of nine targets for 168 yards and two touchdowns. His 38.8 DraftKings points were a staple of many winning tournament lineups, and he’s now topped 30 DraftKings points twice in four weeks.
The matchup gives some reason for pause, as Atlanta has allowed just 6.6 yards per target to opposing perimeter receivers. Atlanta also used A.J. Terrell to shadow Calvin Ridley last week, and Collins may face a similar fate. Collins has seen a 32% target rate per route run against man coverage, so the shadow coverage may not be the end of the world.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick(s)
Garrett Wilson ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): New York Jets (+2.5) at Denver Broncos (43.5 total)
Garrett Wilson isn’t going to be completely unowned this week, but I’m high on him in this spot. He’s run a route on practically every dropback this season and has a 31% target share to go along with a 19% first-read target rate per route run. I wish that second number was a little higher, but that could rise in time with Zach Wilson gaining more confidence.
Zach Wilson barely missed Garrett in the end zone last week. Regardless, Garrett still hauled in nine of 14 targets for 60 yards.
He now gets to face a Denver defense that has been absolutely ravaged by opposing receivers. They’ve allowed the highest catch rate and yards per target to opposing wide receivers on the year. This matchup might be exactly what Wilson needs, as he’ll certainly see the volume against this porous defense.
Rashee Rice ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings (53 total)
Rashee Rice‘s role has steadily climbed week after week. He ran a route on 47% of the dropbacks last week, and that number has climbed every week. He’s seen a massive 32% target rate per route run to go along with a 23% first read target rate per route. That number is likely to come down as his routes increase, but it’s still promising to see Mahomes want to get him the ball.
Rice now takes part in one of the top environments of the week against a poor defense. He makes a lot of lineups work with his cheap tag and will be somewhat overlooked with Wan’Dale Robinson seeing a lot of ownership. I think Rice makes for a great option in Mahomes stacks and is one of my favorite tournament targets of the weekend.
