In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 5 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening):
- Davante Adams (1st)
- Justin Jefferson (5th)
- CeeDee Lamb (11th)
- Curtis Samuel (61st)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Wide Receivers
Davante Adams ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) Green Bay Packers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (50.5 total)
After headlining this space last week, Adams was a minor letdown in Week 4. The usage was fine with 11 targets, but Adams was just unusually inefficient. He had caught almost 74% of his targets prior to last week and barely broke 50% against Pittsburgh. Being held out of the end zone didn’t help either. Adams has just one touchdown through four weeks after scoring 18 times last season.
This week should be better, though, at least on paper. The game total is five points higher than last week, and the Bengals offense is far superior to the Steelers at this point. Joe Burrow and company should do enough to keep pace with the Packers here. Speaking of pace, one concern I have here is the speed with which these teams play. They’re the two slowest teams in situation-neutral pace so far. While not a huge concern for Adams, who is second in the NFL with a 35.75% target share, it lowers the potential of this game turning into a shootout.
The Bengals defense is probably a bit underrated here too. They’re 11th in DVOA vs. the pass this season and have a -0.4 Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers this year. Adams is talented enough that we aren’t too concerned with the matchup, but we shouldn’t be boosting Adams due to it.
Even with all that, Adams leads the position in Median Projection by almost five points on DraftKings. If you can get to him salary-wise, he belongs in rosters of all types. Our pros love him this week — he leads four FanDuel and two DraftKings models. He has a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, so if you’re playing both sites, he makes more sense there. He’s firmly in play on both sites, though.
Justin Jefferson ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) vs. Detroit Lions (49 total)
Jefferson and teammate Adam Thielen have split targets fairly evenly so far this year. However, Justin has a more valuable role. His average target is almost three yards deeper than Thielen while producing a similar catch rate.
Jefferson should have a field day turning those looks into points against the Lions. He has a matchup advantage (courtesy of PFF’s WR/CB matchups) of 99.9 against the Lions, which I believe is the highest score possible. With the exception of maybe the Bucs, the Lions secondary is probably the worst in the NFL right now.
The biggest concern for Jefferson (and Thielen) here is an early blowout. If Dalvin Cook scores a couple of times early, we won’t see much passing from Minnesota. Their pass rate vs. expectation is in the bottom six in the league. (This accounts for the average pass rate based on score, time remaining, and down and distance). The expectation is already low enough as 7.5 point favorites.
However, Minnesota’s only win was also Jefferson’s best game. They handled the Seahawks fairly easily, but Jefferson still saw 11 targets and turned them into a 9/118/1 line. The Seahawks defense is bad, particularly against the pass. Detroit’s is noticeably worse.
We’ve talked about how it’s rare for both of the Vikings receivers to go off in a single week, so sticking with one is the better bet. I’d make it Jefferson on FanDuel, where he’s only $500 more expensive than Thielen and is the only wide receiver other than Davante to lead a Pro Model. On DraftKings, it’s a closer call. The $1,100 salary gap makes Thielen more appealing there.
CeeDee Lamb ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. New York Giants (52 total)
Lamb leads two of our Pro Models on DraftKings, where his salary is the cheapest we’ve seen all year. Lamb has struggled the last two weeks, turning only eight targets into five scoreless receptions. Part of this is due to low overall passing volume — the Cowboys threw only 48 passes over two weeks. For context, in Week 1, they threw 58. The other part of the equation is the inexplicable reliance on tight ends, who’ve combined for 20 targets in that span.
I don’t expect “get the ball to Dalton Schultz instead of Lamb” to be the Cowboys’ game plan for long, though. Lamb is their best threat with the ball in his hands. He has almost doubled Amari Cooper in yards after the catch on two fewer receptions.
Lamb has the deepest average depth of target (aDOT) on the team, which may have been his downfall the past two weeks. With the Cowboys facing top-eight (by adjusted sack rate) pass rushes, Dak has been forced to get the ball out quickly. This explains the proliferation of tight end (and running back) targets. Only 48% of Dak’s throws in this stretch were to wideouts. This week, they take on a Giants team ranking a moderate 15h in adjusted sack rate. There should be time for Lamb routes to develop.
This game has the slate’s highest total, so Vegas expects a lot of scoring. Who better to benefit from it than the Cowboys’ deep-ball threat? While Lamb lead’s some models on DraftKings only, I actually prefer him on FanDuel. He’s cheaper than Amari there but more expensive on DraftKings.
These guys tend to have their big games together, though, so playing them both could work out just fine as well.
Curtis Samuel ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) Washington Football Team (+2) vs. New Orleans Saints (44 total)
Samuel stands out compared to the premium wide receivers that are showing out in our models, but he’s here for a reason. He’s clearly a DraftKings only play. At minimum pricing there and a full $700 above it on FanDuel, the value just isn’t there.
Last week, Samuel was one of two punt wide receivers (the other being Nick Westbrook-Ikhine) gaining some traction. Samuel was the less popular of the two and was $200 cheaper. They finished with the exact same score. This week, Westbrook-Ikhine was bumped up to $3,700, while Samuel remains minimum priced.
Samuel had missed essentially all of training camp (with a new team) due to injury before returning last week. It helped that he followed head coach Ron Rivera to Washington from Carolina, but still a challenging situation. The fact that he immediately stepped in as the No. 2 wide receiver was encouraging. He out-targeted Dyami Brown and Adam Humphries combined. Now with another week of practice and health under his belt, he should see even more usage.
The matchup with a tough Saints team is, of course, not great. Are we really looking for great here, though? Or are we happy with 7-10 points and a salary that lets you get up to the more expensive wideouts in your other spots? Obviously, the answer is the latter.
There’s a slim potential for bigger things too. With Antonio Gibson banged up, the Football Team is needy at running back. Samuel carried the rock 41 times last season in Carolina, so he might get involved there too.
Samuel is my favorite punt wide receiver this week.
Other Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside
DJ Moore ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) Carolina Panthers (-4) vs Philadelphia Eagles (45 total)
Now without Samuel competing for targets and a reinvigorated Sam Darnold throwing him the ball, we’re finally seeing what DJ Moore is capable of. He’s the WR3 in PPR scoring, with both men ahead of him (Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill) off the main slate this week. The Eagles are 22nd in pass DVOA, so there’s no reason to expect anything different this week.
Moore has seen 12 targets in both games without Christian McCaffrey playing the whole way, which is still the case this week. As a final bonus, the Eagles are playing at the fourth-fastest situation-neutral pace this week. That means more plays to go around. Moore is too cheap on DraftKings and way too cheap on FanDuel for his production thus far.
Mike Williams ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) and Keenan Allen ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) vs Cleveland Browns (46.5 total)
As part of the Chargers’ explosive attack, Williams and Allen are both inside the top 18 wide receivers in PPR scoring right now. They’re facing off against a Browns team that’s a serious pass-funnel. The Browns are the best team against the run, but only 13th against the pass. With the Browns’ scary pass rush, I prefer Allen this week. I haven’t been able to prove it, but I think shorter area receivers benefit from a quarterback under duress (relative to their teammates).
Williams runs deeper routes, which may not have as much time to develop this week. Allen has also seen 11 more targets and leads Williams in air yards despite a shallower aDOT. The projections think so too. Allen projects better across all categories on both sites. Especially on DraftKings, Allen is a better choice here, but both guys could blow the slate open.
Other Value Wide Receivers
There are a few viable low-priced guys this week. Samuel is my preference for cash games, but any of these guys could emerge with the highest score this week. Be sure to consult our ownership projections later in the week to see where the leverage spots are. Most of these guys should be considered DraftKings only.
The looser pricing on FanDuel makes them less of a necessity there.
Terrance Marshall ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) Carolina Panthers (-4) vs Philadelphia Eagles (45 total)
Marshall is averaging just over four targets per game this season as Carolina’s third option in the passing game. He hasn’t done much with them, clocking in at just over five points per game. This is still a fast-paced game against a subpar defense, though, so it’s as good a time as any for Marshall to have a day.
He’s sixth in Pts/Sal on DraftKings this week, with four of the receivers ahead of him priced at $5,200 or higher. I prefer Samuel in this range, but Marshall has a higher shot of out-scoring him than their projected ownership will likely suggest.
Bryan Edwards ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) vs. Chicago Bears 44.5 total
No receiver on the Raiders is topping a 20% target share, which means the value is at the bottom of the price range. Edwards, like Marshall, is sitting at 17 targets through four games. Unlike Marshall, he has a very healthy 14.29 aDOT, leading to 141 more yards on the season. This naturally leads to less safety from Edwards, but his downfield role gives him a shot to pop off for a big day.
He’s averaging over 8.0 PPR points, despite not scoring a touchdown this season.
Jaylen Waddle ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) Miami Dolphins (10.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Check out my Quarterback Breakdown for my thoughts on Jacoby Brisset and this game environment. Waddle is seeing a minuscule 4.61 aDOT this season, but he’s approaching eight targets per game. He’s stretching the definition of a “value” play a bit but provides a way stronger floor than anyone else in the category.
Miami should be expected to throw at a season-high rate this week, so 10 targets for Waddle aren’t out of the question. Waddle will need to get it done after the catch to really have a good week, but the floor is rock solid.
