The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 5 NFL slate. We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Tom Brady vs. Miami Dolphins – $7,400 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is virtually matchup proof, consistently putting up a 75th-percentile outcome. Despite a low 47.5-point total, Brady has many weapons at his disposal, seeing a strong correlation to his wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown.
Miami, who ranks as the 13th-best defense according to Football Outsiders, should provide a more difficult matchup, but given a top-tier receiving corps and pass-heavy 63%/37% pass-to-run split, Brady can reach a ceiling performance through his correlated teammates and unique stacking configurations.
Top Value: Trey Lance vs. Arizona Cardinals – $5,900 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
With San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo expected to miss the Week 5 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals with a calf injury, rookie quarterback Trey Lance is expected to start, giving salary relief to lineups. Lance threw for 157 yards on nine passes and two touchdowns in a 28-21 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. As a dual-threat option, Lance also rushed for 41 yards on seven attempts.
Even with a tough matchup against a Cardinals defense ranked sixth in DVOA, Lance can easily reach fantasy relevance relying on wide receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle as stacking options and can also be paired with higher-priced Cardinals like DeAndre Hopkins as a bring-back option.
Top Rostered: Dak Prescott vs. New York Giants – $8,100 on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel
Dak Prescott leads the Dallas Cowboys in a matchup with the highest total on the slate, currently at 52-points, and should be a popular option for rosters this week, seeing 14.8% projected ownership. In a favorable matchup against the 27th-ranked DVOA New York Giants, Prescott should have no problem moving the ball down the field, taking under center duties for a Cowboys offense ranked first in pace, averaging a play every 24.3 seconds (According to the RotoViz NFL Pace App).
Per the Trends tool, when playing in a matchup in a total higher than 50-points, Prescott averages 24.35 actual DraftKings points with a +4.16 Plus/Minus. With a concentrated receiving corps of Amari Copper and CeeDee Lamb, who combined to see more than 45% of the Cowboys’ target share, Prescott has high-upside stacking options in a game with shootout potential.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Derrick Henry vs. Jacksonville Jaguars- $9,000 on DraftKings, $10,400 on FanDuel
For the second consecutive week, Derrick Henry rates as the top ceiling on the slate. Henry looks to have a prime matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who rank 30th in defensive DVOA. The leader in the Titans’ backfield with an 83% share of carries, Henry has recorded 15 or more carries in all four weeks this year, carrying the ball a season-high 33 times for 157 yards and one touchdown in a 27-24 loss to the New York Jets in Week 4.
This year, Henry has also seen involvement in the passing game, seeing two targets, catching two passes for 20 yards in the Week 4 loss. Given his massive involvement in the Titans offense, combined with an ideal matchup, Henry looks to have ceiling-worthy upside, despite being the most expensive player on the slate.
Top Value: Leonard Fournette vs. Miami Dolphins – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
Leonard Fournette looks to be the lead back in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield, seeing 56% of Tampa Bay’s production in the backfield. In a 19-17 win over the New England Patriots, Fournette rushed for 92 yards on 20 attempts, facing a New England defense ranked 29th in rush DVOA. Fournette should have a similar matchup in what looks to be a weak spot for the Miami Dolphins, who rank 20th in rush DVOA.
With a price tag of $5,200 and involvement in the passing game, Fournette can reach fantasy relevance, especially if the Buccaneers, who are 10.5-point favorites runway with the lead, signaling more production to run out the clock.
Top Rostered: Najee Harris vs. Denver Broncos – $6,900 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
While Leonard Fournette is projected to be the most popular option this week, currently projected for 28% ownership. Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris also looks to be a popular option for rosters this week, currently projected at 23% ownership. A spend-up option from Fournette, Harris benefits from staying on the field, appearing in 93% of the Steelers’ offensive snaps (according to the FantasyPros Snap Counts Tool) and leads the team with an 83% share of carries in the backfield. In a Week 4 27-17 loss to the Green Bay Packers, Harris rushed for 62 yards and one touchdown, carrying the ball 15 times.
Week 5’s matchup against the Denver Broncos looks to be a challenging task for the rookie running back, ranked seventh in defensive DVOA. However, given Harris’s likely volume, the running has the potential to produce upside for rosters this week.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Davante Adams vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $8,200 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Averaging 11.3 targets through four games this season, it is apparent Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams is the preferred weapon in the Packers’ receiving corps. Adams leads the receiving corp with 36% of the target share, more than three times more than tight end Robert Tonyan, who is second with a 12% target share.
Despite a challenging matchup against the 11th-ranked defense in the Cincinnati Bengals, Adams can likely reach a 75th-percentile outcome on volume, his 68% receptions rate and 12 yards per reception average to start the season. Don’t count out his touchdown upside, either, with Adams ranked 10th in red-zone targets this season, seeing five targets through four games.
Top Value: Curtis Samuel vs. New Orleans Saints – $3,000 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Priced at the minimum salary on DraftKings, Washington wide receiver Curtis Samuel should factor for significant production alongside Terry McLaurin in the Washington Football Team receiving corps. In his return from the injured reserve, a Week 4 34-30 win over the Atlanta Falcons, Samuel saw four targets, catching four passes for 19 yards.
A difficult matchup against the second-ranked defensive DVOA Saints might give quarterback Taylor Heinicke and the Washington passing game trouble. But with a low salary, Samuel makes an excellent correlation piece to Alvin Kamara, who is priced at $8,600.
Top Rostered: Amari Cooper vs. New York Giants – $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
Davante Adams comes in as the most popular wide receiver on the slate, projected to see 29.5% projected ownership. At 21% projected ownership, Amari Cooper also looks to be a popular option in roster construction this week. Cooper is second in the Cowboys’ high-powered offense in target share, seeing 21% of looks from Dak Prescott. Cooper also comes at a discount to his counterpart CeeDee Lamb, who is priced at $6,200.
According to AddMoreFunds, Cooper is the preferred option in the Cowboys’ red-zone passing tendencies, seeing six targets in the red zone after four games. Cooper and the Cowboys should also benefit from a weak Giants’ defense who ranks 24th in pass DVOA and is the perfect complement for stacking with Prescott or Giants’ quarterback Daniel Jones. A word of caution: both Cooper and Prescott should command higher rostership, signaling tournament players may want to pivot to more unique builds.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Darren Waller vs. Chicago Bears – $8,100 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
With a 24% target share in the Las Vegas Raiders receiving corps, Darren Waller leads the Raiders pass-catchers in looks from quarterback Derek Carr. After a Week 1, 19-target performance, Waller has consistently seen seven targets in his next three games, averaging 11 yards per reception. The Raiders’ tight end also benefits from his production in the red zone, seeing six targets through the first four games of the year.
The Bears defense is no easy feat for the Raiders’ receiving corps, ranked eighth in DVOA. However, the Raiders’ tendency to use a more pass-heavy 58%/42% pass-to-run play-calling scheme provides tremendous upside for Waller, solely based on his hyper-involvement in the passing game.
Top Value: Ricky Seals-Jones vs. New Orleans Saints – $2,500 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
With tight end Logan Thomas placed on the injured reserve with a calf injury, tight end Ricky-Seals-Jones should see the bulk of production left absent by Thomas. At $2,500 on DraftKings, Seals-Jones provides extreme salary relief. Like his counterpart in the receiving corps, Curtis Samuel, he opens possibilities to get to running back Alvin Kamara as a correlation piece as part of a full stack or a mini-stack in rosters.
Seals-Jones saw four targets, catching two passes for 19 yards in Washington’s 34-30 win over the Falcons and should factor as passing options alongside McLaurin and Samuel and primary weapons.
Top Rostered: Evan Engram vs. Dallas Cowboys- $3,200 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel
Based on projected ownership, it looks like the obvious choice for a bring-back option in Cowboys’ stacks may be Evan Engram. With wide receivers Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard continuing to deal with hamstring injuries, the Giants’ receiving corps may rely on Engram and Kenny Golladay to lead the receiving corps. Engram is currently third in target share with 16%, behind Golladay and Shepard, seeing six targets for five receptions and 27 yards in a 27-21 win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 4.
Currently, as 7.5-point underdogs, the Giants will likely employ their 60%/40% pass-to-run play-calling scheme to keep this game close. Facing the fastest team in the league, the Giants should also increase their 29% no-huddle rate, which is currently the second-fastest in the league.
