The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for Week 5.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $8,200 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
After a Week 4 23-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens, Josh Allen again projects for the highest ceiling in Week 5, facing a team in the Pittsburgh Steelers, who rank 10th in defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and look to be a challenge on paper for the superstar quarterback, who is also the most expensive on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Allen leads the Bills, who are a massive 14.5-point home favorite in a matchup with a 46.5-point total. A dual-threat option, Allen dropped back 36 times in the Week 4 win, completing 19 passes for 236 yards and one touchdown, also moving the offense on the ground, rushing for 70 yards and one touchdown on 11 attempts. Expect the passing frequency to continue for Allen and the Bills, who this season have employed a 61%/39% pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz)
Per the Trends tool, when Allen appears in matchups above a 45-point total, he averages 27.73 DraftKings points, with a +4.23 Plus/Minus and a 63.2% consistency rating. Despite the sky-high salary, Allen may be worth the pay-up, giving lineups a solid floor, especially as a dual-threat quarterback.
Looking at THE BLITZ, Jalen Hurts again projects for the highest ceiling against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5. The dual-threat quarterback looks to have a more favorable matchup compared to Allen, facing a Cardinals defense ranked fourth in defensive DVOA and comes in as a five-point road favorite and is priced $100 cheaper.
Look for Hurts to likely target wide receiver A.J. Brown and use his skillful rushing ability in what looks to be a breakout performance after four weeks this season. In a sloppy Week 4 29-21 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Hurts completed 16 passes for 204 yards and rushed for 38 yards and one touchdown and should easily move the Eagles offense forward against the Cardinals.
Top Value: Tom Brady vs. Atlanta Falcons – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
Future Hall-of-Famer Tom Brady projects as a top value option on DraftKings, given his discounted salary and ideal matchup against a Falcons defense ranked 22nd in DVOA.
Brady and the Buccaneers are a 10-point home favorite against the Falcons in a matchup with a 46.5-point total. Despite injuries to the receiving corps, the Buccaneers are the most pass-heavy team in the league, using a pass-heavy 67%/33% pass-to-run play-calling scheme and could easily move the ball down the field, facing a defense ranked 19th in overall defense, according to PFF.
In a Week 4 41-31 loss against a tough Kansas City Chiefs defense, Brady threw for 385 yards on 39 passes and three touchdowns.
Keep an eye on the Buccaneers’ receiving corps, with questionable tags for Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage and Breshad Perriman, leaving lead receiver Mike Evans as the likely first look, leading the team with an 18% target share.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Austin Ekeler at Cleveland Browns – $7,800 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Austin Ekeler projects for the highest ceiling among running backs in Week 5 in an ideal matchup against the Cleveland Browns, who have appeared to struggle against the run game, ranking 30th in rush DVOA. Not only is Ekeler the lead back for the Chargers, responsible for 47% of the team’s rushing share, but is also an integral part of the Chargers’ pass game and is second on the team with an 18.35% target share, only behind Mike Williams.
The dual-threat ability of Ekeler makes him a viable option to reach an 85th-percentile outcome, as demonstrated in a 34-24 win over the Houston Texans, rushing for two touchdowns and 60 yards on 13 attempts, and one receiving touchdown.
Paying up for a skill player like Ekeler in an ideal matchup might be the key that unlocks the slate.
Top Value: Jeff Wilson Jr. at Carolina Panthers – $5,500 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
San Francisco 49ers running back Jeff Wilson Jr. projects as a top value among running backs, facing a Carolina Panthers defense ranked 10th in DVOA. Coming off Monday night’s 24-9 win over the Los Angeles Rams, Wilson rushed for 74 yards and one touchdown and looks to be the lead back in the 49ers offense, responsible for 46% of the rushing share, but should continue to split the workload with wide receiver Deebo Samuel.
In what looks to be a more offensively focused matchup, with a 39-point total, Wilson may see the bulk of production from the 49ers’ offense and as a 6.5-point road favorite, could be used in a clock-killing situation if San Francisco is ahead toward the end of the game, making him a viable fantasy option, despite the likely popularity.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Cooper Kupper vs. Dallas Cowboys – $9,600 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
Superstar Cooper Kupp returns to the main slate, projecting for the highest ceiling among wide receivers.
On paper, Kupp looks to have a difficult matchup, facing a Cowboys defense ranked fifth in pass DOVA, but as a favorite weapon for quarterback Matthew Stafford, look for the wideout to be in almost unfadeable territory. In the Monday night loss to the San Francisco 49ers, Kupp caught 14 passes for 122 yards but failed to find the end zone in a second consecutive game.
Aside from the volume, Kupp remains the preferred target in the red zone, leading the team with eight red zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds.
With first looks in a pass-heavy Rams offense and touchdown upside, Kupps immediately becomes a candidate to reach an 85th percentile outcome and can even be used as a bring-back with Cowboys skill players in CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliot, despite the low 43-point total.
Top Value: Tyler Lockett at New Orleans Saints – $5,600 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
With a discounted salary on both sites, Tyler Lockett projects as a top value option this week at wide receiver, facing a New Orleans Saints defense ranked 13th in pass DVOA, a likely tough matchup for the leading member of the Seahawks receiving corps, responsible for 27% of the target share, splitting the first look with DK Metcalf.
This season, with Geno Smith handling under-center duties, Lockett is averaging 8.5 targets per game and 11.2 yards per reception, and despite Metcalf seeing the lion’s share of end-zone targets, Lockett looks to be a consistent producer and should be a fantasy viable option, either as a one-off play or paired with New Orleans skill players in Alvin Kamara and Michale Thomas as a bring back.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyler Higbee vs. Dallas Cowboys – $4,300 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
Tyler Higbee projects as the top ceiling among tight ends this week, as one of the preferred options for Matthew Stafford, responsible for a massive 25% target share, only behind Cooper Kupp. In a 24-9 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, Higbee was targeted 14 times, catching 10 passes for 73 yards.
However, the Cowboys defense ranks fifth in pass DVOA, which might look to hamper Higbee’s performance. However, Higbee’s upside should remain on his ability to find the end zone, where he is third in the Rams’ receiving corps with six red-zone targets.
With the passing volume and touchdown upside, consider using Higbee on both sides of stacks for this matchup, and should be a popular option given his discounted salary on both sites.
Top Value: Dalton Schultz at Los Angeles Rams – $3,400 on DraftKings, $4,800 on FanDuel
A discounted Dalton Schultz looks to be a top value this week at tight-end, facing a Rams defense ranked 24th in pass DVOA. Responsible for 16% of the Cowboy’s target share, only behind CeeDee Lamb and Noah Brown, Schultz is a viable fantasy option, seeing at least three targets in three games this season, despite not recording a reception in a 25-10 win over the Washington Commanders in Week 4.
As a salary-saving option, Schultz becomes a pivot in Rams-Cowboys stacks and should see lower ownership compared to Higbee, further unlocking access to the ceiling skill players like Kupp.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Understanding Ceiling Projections for NFL DFS Tournaments
NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Chargers vs. Chiefs
Steelers-Browns Same Game Parlay: NFL Player Prop Picks, Over/Under, More, Using Parlay IQ for Thursday Night Football
Week 4 NFL DFS Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
