The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson at Cincinnati – $7,500 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
The two big names at the top of the salary structure at QB this week are Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Both have extremely high ceilings, but I like Jackson a little better this week, and he even comes a little cheaper than Allen on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jackson has the highest ceiling projection in Chris Raybon’s projections this week and the second-highest in THE BLITZ projections.
Jackson has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his four games this season, with over 24 DraftKings points and 23 FanDuel points in each of those three successful weeks. Last week, he led his Ravens past Allen’s Bills by throwing for 156 yards and two touchdowns and adding another touchdown on the ground with 56 rushing yards. He only had to attempt 18 passes in that game since Derrick Henry and the ground game has been so successful, but he still managed to have a good fantasy day.
In each of his four games this season, Jackson has at least 45 rushing yards and has thrown a touchdown in every game as well. His dual-threat upside gives him a very high ceiling, and the fact that the Ravens are only 2-2 should keep him motivated to knock off the struggling Bengals in Cincinnati. The Bengals have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three straight weeks and were torn apart by dual-threat Jayden Daniels two weeks ago. I don’t think they’ll have any answers for Jackson, setting up another big game for the Ravens superstar.
Top Value: Brock Purdy vs. Arizona Cardinals – $6,200 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
The 49ers have the highest implied team total of any team this week and are in the matchup with the highest over/under as they host the Arizona Cardinals. In that high-scoring environment, Brock Purdy is popping across all the projections and looks ready for a huge week, according to each of our three main projections.
Throughout this post, we’ll use an evenly balanced, three-way aggregate of Chris Raybon’s, Sean Koerner’s, and THE BLITZ’s projections. In that aggregate, Purdy has the highest ceiling projections of all quarterbacks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at the position on both sites.
Purdy is only the eighth-most expensive play on each site but brings the most upside of any option available. Part of that is that some of the main dual-threat QBs are in tougher matchups, and part of it is due to Purdy’s own favorable spot against the Cardinals.
The Cardinals got crushed by rookie Jayden Daniels last week and have allowed an average of 220 passing yards each week while giving up five passing scores and three QB rushing touchdowns in their four games this season. They have been the fifth-best matchup for QBs on DraftKings so far this season.
Purdy has thrown for over 280 yards in each of his last three games and posted a monster game two weeks ago against the Rams. Last week, he wasn’t called upon to do much in a comfortable win against the Patriots, but he still racked up 288 passing yards. While he’ll still be without Christian McCaffrey (Achilles), he will have Deebo Samuel Sr. available after his injury and possibly George Kittle (ribs) as well.
While he doesn’t usually add the rushing yards of the dual-threat options, he has had 15 rushing attempts in the last two weeks. In this favorable divisional matchup, Purdy brings plenty of upside this week.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyren Williams vs. Green Bay Packers – $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
Williams has been asked to carry the load for the Rams with Cooper Kupp (ankle) and Puka Nacua (knee) on the sidelines, and so far, Williams has been outstanding. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his four games this season and gets a good matchup at home this week against the Packers.
This week, Williams has the highest ceiling projection of all running backs in the aggregated projections on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. He has the highest ceiling projection at running back in both Koerner’s and THE BLITZ projections.
Williams has scored a rushing touchdown in every game this season and has found the end zone a total of six times. He went off for over 30 DraftKings points in Week 3 vs. the 49ers and followed that up with over 20 DraftKings points in Week 4 with 94 rushing yards to go with his touchdown. On the season, he has 13 catches on 14 targets out of the backfield and should stay involved in the passing game while those two huge target magnets are out.
His heavy usage gives him a very high ceiling this week against the Packers. Green Bay’s defense has held running backs out of the end zone for the past three weeks but allowed up 90+ rushing yards to the lead running back in three of four games this season.
Williams’ efficiency hasn’t been great most of this season but until the Rams get more options healthy, he’ll be busy enough to overcome that challenge with volume.
Top Value: D’Andre Swift vs. Carolina Panthers – $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
Before last week, Swift had been brutal in his three games with the Bears, but he turned things around against Williams and the Rams. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs on DraftKings and the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. On both sites, he’s the best value at his salary level since all the options with better Projected Plus/Minus are the most expensive options in play.
Last week, Swift broke out for 29.5 DraftKings points and 26.0 FanDuel points. He finished with 93 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries and added 72 receiving yards on his seven catches. Before that strong showing, he had not had more than 30 rushing yards or 25 receiving yards in any game this season.
While I’m not sure that I’m sold on Swift for the rest of the season, he has shown he can excel in favorable spots, and he gets another one this week against the Panthers. Carolina has been the best fantasy matchup for running backs in the NFL this season. The Panthers have allowed seven RB touchdowns and an average of 126.25 rushing yards and 32.25 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs.
Since the Bears are expected to lean heavily on Swift again this week, he brings a great ceiling at his salary. He continues to play comfortably more snaps than Roschon Johnson, who was getting some sleeper buzz before Swift’s breakout.
If Jonathan Taylor (ankle) is unable to play, Trey Sermon will also be a key value to watch for. Other cheap plays with upside include Tyrone Tracy (if Devin Singletary is out) and Alexander Mattison (better if Zamir White is out).
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayden Reed at Los Angeles Rams – $6,500 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
Several of the top options on the board have tough matchups and injury concerns, so I like approaching this week with a more balanced approach and targeting options with salaries that are a little cheaper but still bring high ceilings. Reed is a great option this week and has a ceiling projection in the top eight on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregate projections.
Reed has been the No. 2 WR in all of fantasy football through the first four weeks of the season, even though he played two games with Malik Willis and extremely rush-heavy game plans. In each of the two games started by Jordan Love, Reed has over 130 receiving yards, a touchdown, and over 30 DraftKings points.
This week, Reed should be especially busy with Christian Watson (ankle) ruled out. Reed has huge play-making potential any time he touches the ball, and coach Matt LaFleur has been scheming ways to create opportunities for the second-year emerging star.
The Rams have been a favorable matchup for receivers this year, allowing the ninth-most DraftKings points to the position. They have given up a WR touchdown each week this year, including a three-touchdown game to Jauan Jennings two weeks ago. Opposing receivers are averaging 148 yards per game against L.A.
It should be a great matchup for Reed, and getting him at this salary with his ceiling makes him a great play to build around in Week 5.
Top Value: Tre Tucker at Denver Broncos – $4,100 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
Tucker is especially cheap on DraftKings, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in Koerner’s projections and the second-highest in the aggregate projections on DraftKings. He’s much more expensive on FanDuel but still offers decent potential, given his expanded role in Vegas.
With Davante Adams (hamstring) out this week and possibly out of town, Tucker becomes a key part of the Raiders’ passing game. In Week 3, Tucker went off for 96 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers in Week 3, but much of that production came in garbage time. However, he made the most of the expanded opportunity last week, tying with Jakobi Meyers for the team lead in catches in Adams’ absence. Tucker had over 15 DraftKings points for the second straight week with 41 yards on five catches and added a three-yard touchdown run.
This week against the Broncos, Meyeres is expected to be shadowed by Patrick Surtain, who has been a shutdown corner for Denver this season. If that’s how the game plan plays out, Tucker will get a much more favorable matchup against CB Riley Moss. Secondary options have had success against Denver the last two weeks, which could set Tucker up for another big week.
Tucker is high-risk since he’s in an offense that has struggled at times this year, but plenty of other value options are worth considering if trusting the Silver and Black is too scary for you this week. On DraftKings, Diontae Johnson of the Panthers, Dontayvion Wicks of the Packers, and Jordan Whittington of the Rams all have high Projected Plus/Minus. On FanDuel, Whittington and Wicks are at the top of the value options with Michael Pittman bringing a 98% Bargain Rating and worth a look as well.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at San Francisco 49ers – $5,900 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
Tight end continues to be a tricky position this season, but at least McBride may be able to return this week. He missed last week with a concussion and still has to clear the concussion protocol, but if he’s back, he brings both a high floor and a high ceiling this week.
McBride has the highest ceiling projection on DraftKings’ main slate in the aggregate projections with the second-highest on FanDuel behind only Jake Ferguson, who is included with the Sunday Night Football game on that site.
McBride is always a strong option if he plays since he gets so much volume from Kyler Murray. He has at least six targets in each of his three games this season and had a big game in Week 2 in a divisional matchup against the Rams. He’ll look to have a similar performance this week against the 49ers in what is expected to be the highest-scoring game of the week.
Top Value: Tucker Kraft at Los Angeles Rams Parkinson – $3,500 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel
Kraft has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel, where he has been priced up a bit and Ferguson is included. Kraft has an 85% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he outperformed his salary-based expectations by over 12 DraftKings points last week.
Against the Vikings in Week 4, Kraft was the No. 1 tight end of the week. He finished with six catches on nine targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. He has multiple catches in every game this season and brings much more upside than Luke Musgrave, who he has obviously passed on the depth chart.
Like Reed and Wicks, Kraft will be in for more work this week without Watson. The Rams have allowed 51.75 receiving yards per week to opposing tight ends, setting Kraft up for another big week. Getting him at only $3,500 on DraftKings makes him one of the best overall bargain plays of the week, and he deserves consideration in a flex spot, even if you go a different way at tight end.
