In this piece, I highlight tight ends that stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
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Top NFL DFS Tight End Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two tight ends near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Travis Kelce
- Kyle Pitts
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other tight ends.
Top Model NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Travis Kelce ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,789 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings (53 total)
The Chiefs continue to slowly ramp up Travis Kelce’s workload as he returned from his early season knee injury. He ran a route on 83% of the dropbacks last week while seeing a 33% target share and 30% target rate per route run. He also saw a strong 20% first-read target rate. He’s always been Mahomes’ safety blanket, but they’re also, unsurprisingly, scheming up ways to get him the ball.
The matchup appears to be difficult, as Minnesota has allowed the lowest yards per target to opposing tight ends. However, they’ve had an easy stretch of opponents, and few tight ends are used remotely closely to how the Chiefs use Kelce.
His combination of floor and ceiling is hard to pass up on him, as he is the top tight end in our Cash Game and Tournament Model.
Kyle Pitts ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) vs. Houston Texans (41.5 total)
Few things make less sense in life than Kyle Pitts‘ usage thus far in his career. He’s averaged 5.7 DraftKings points per game this season, seeing three, five, nine, and four targets.
His underlying metrics are fairly promising, as he’s run a route on 89% of the dropbacks, with an 18% target share and 28% share of team air yards. He only has a 13% first-read target rate per route, so he isn’t necessarily being schemed a great amount of touches.
Most of Pitts’ targets have been inaccurate, so if Desmond Ridder is able to find a little bit of accuracy, Pitts may be able to make some big plays happen. His ownership is worth monitoring, as it’s hard to get too excited if a lot of the field is also going to roster Pitts.
He’s the top tight end in both Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Mark Andrews ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (38 total)
The Ravens didn’t throw much last week against Cleveland, but when they did, they looked to Mark Andrews. Andrews saw 27.8% of the team targets, catching five balls for 80 yards and two touchdowns. We always look for ceiling at the tight end position, and Mark Andrews is one of the few guys who can blow the position away some weeks. He was in the $7,000s for a good chunk of last season.
Andrews put up 100 yards on nine catches the last time these teams played. Pittsburgh has allowed a middling 6.5 yards per target to tight ends on the season. Andrews’ ownership is likely to stay low, so he appears as a solid tournament option this weekend.
Zach Ertz ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (45 total)
Ownership will follow, but Zach Ertz is one of, if not my favorite tight end play on the weekend. He caught six of 10 targets last week for 53 yards and dropped a touchdown late that would’ve bolstered his score. His targets have come close to the line of scrimmage, but he racks them up and has a red zone role.
The matchup is great, with Cincinnati ranking in the bottom five in catch rate, yards per target, and touchdown rate to opposing tight ends. Ertz isn’t the sexiest click, but he’s the right click this weekend, in my opinion.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick(s)
T.J. Hockenson ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (53 total)
If looking for leverage this weekend, T.J. Hockenson looks like he’ll be overlooked in the top game environment of the weekend.
He relies on volume, which was hard to come by last week. Minnesota only threw the ball 19 times, with Hockenson catching two of three targets for 24 yards. We’re expecting Kansas City to put up a lot of points, with Minnesota needing to throw the ball to keep up.
The matchup sets up great for Hockenson, with Kansas City allowing the second-highest catch rate and fifth-most yards per target to opposing tight ends. He also makes for a unique piece in Mahomes stacks, as most stacks with Mahomes will have Kelce.
