Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Tucker Kraft ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
The Packers’ pass-catching corps is in a bit of disarray at the moment. Christian Watson suffered an injury last week vs. the Vikings and is officially doubtful for Week 5, while Romeo Doubs is dealing with a case of hurt feelings. He’s unhappy with his role in the team’s offense through the first four weeks, so he’s also not expected to suit up on Sunday.
That opens up a few additional opportunities for Kraft, who has served as the team’s top tight end. Outside of Week 1, he’s had a target share of at least 14% in each game, and he’s coming off his best showing of the season last week. He had a season-high 86% route participation, and he responded with nine targets, six catches, 53 yards, and a touchdown.
I wouldn’t expect nine targets on a weekly basis – Jordan Love isn’t going to throw the ball 50+ times very often – but he should be a solid part of this passing attack moving forward. He’s in a great spot to do some damage vs. the Rams, who are 31st in pass defense EPA through the first four weeks.
Kraft stands out as simply too cheap at $3,500 on DraftKings. He owns an 85% Bargain Rating, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus.
Dalton Kincaid ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)
While Kraft is the clear top option on DraftKings, things aren’t as clear-cut on FanDuel. Kraft is significantly more expensive, so it won’t cost much more to go up to the next tier of players.
That includes Kincaid. He was expected to be the Bills’ defacto No. 1 pass-catcher this season after the team lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. While his overall production hasn’t been as good as expected – he’s the No. 10 TE in PPR points per game – his involvement has been excellent over the past three weeks. He’s been targeted on at least 27% of his routes run in three straight games, and he has a 22% target share over that stretch. Only Trey McBride (24%) and Dallas Goedert (23%) have a better than 22% target share over the course of the full season.
Kincaid leads the position with eight Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $6,100 salary comes with an 83% Bargain Rating.
Try out our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Jake Ferguson ($6,200 FanDuel)
Ferguson is only available on the FanDuel main slate, but he’s in contention for the top TE spot on that site. After missing Week 2 with an injury, he’s established himself as the team’s clear No. 2 option in the passing attack over the past two weeks. He posted a 22% target share in Week 3, and he had a 27% target share and 86% route participation in Week 4. Those are elite figures.
Unlike Kincaid, whose numbers have been muted by a low-volume passing attack, Ferguson plays for a friendly offense. The Cowboys have averaged the second-most pass attempts per game this season, and Ferguson has 18 total targets over the past two weeks. He’s yet to find the paint, but he’s still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus in both outings.
The Cowboys will face a tough matchup this week vs. the Steelers, but their defense was slightly exposed by the Colts in Week 4. It’s possible that they’re not quite as good as they looked through the first three weeks. Regardless, $6,200 seems too cheap for Ferguson with the amount of opportunities he’s garnered of late.
Evan Engram ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)
Engram will return to the lineup in Week 4 after missing the past three weeks with an injury. He was priced at $5,500 on DraftKings in his first game of the season, so his current price tag represents a significant decrease.
That makes Engram a very appealing buy-low target. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.02 with a comparable salary throughout his career, and that figure increases to +3.25 with the Jaguars (per the Trends tool). He’s ultimately averaged 13.26 DraftKings points per game in that split.
Engram had a 21% target share in his only game this season, and he was at 24% in 2023. He still figures to be one of the most consistent tight ends in fantasy football. He may not have the same big play upside as some of the top TEs in fantasy, but he’s a slam dunk at a sub-$5,000 price tag.
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Brock Bowers ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
Bowers burst onto the NFL scene, racking up 17 targets, 15 catches, and 156 yards in his first two professional contests. Unfortunately, he’s been unable to keep up that pace, dipping to just seven targets, five catches, and 60 yards over his two most recent outings.
Still, his underlying metrics are respectable. Specifically, he posted an 81% route participation in Week 4, which was his highest mark of the season. With Davante Adams currently out of the picture, it’s possible that Bowers goes back to being the focal point of the team’s passing attack.
Bowers is projected for approximately 3% ownership on this slate, which makes him undervalued per SimLabs.
Tre McBride ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
McBride missed last week’s contest for the Cardinals, but he’ll be back in the lineup Sunday vs. the 49ers. That’s great news for the Cardinals, who could muster just 14 points in their lone game without him.
McBride could be busy against the 49ers. It’s a difficult matchup, but the Cardinals are listed as 7.5-point underdogs. That suggests a game script where they’re going to be playing from behind. McBride has historically crushed in similar spots, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.21 as an underdog of at least five points.
He has the top ceiling projection at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel, yet he’s projected for single-digit ownership across the industry.
Zach Ertz ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel)
The Commanders offense has been an absolute wagon through the first four weeks. Their first in EPA per play, and they’ve punted just four times in four games. That includes just one punt over the past three weeks. Despite having a rookie QB, this offense has been virtually unstoppable.
Ertz isn’t putting up eye-popping numbers in this offense, but he’s getting the job done. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games despite failing to find the endzone. If he can add a touchdown to his typical receiving production, he has the chance to provide excellent value at his minimal salary. Only Kraft, Kincaid, and Engram are showing up in the optimal lineup sims more frequently than Ertz on DraftKings.
