In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are six tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 5 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday evening):
- Darren Waller (2nd)
- George Kittle (5th)
- Robert Tonyan (10th)
- Jared Cook (11th)
- Hunter Henry (13th)
- Ricky Seals-Jones (17th)
We’ll discuss why these six are popping in our models and take a look at some other tight ends who could help you win a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Monday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
Darren Waller ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) vs. Chicago bears (44.5 total)
With Travis Kelce playing in prime time, our models are giving somebody else a chance to lead the slate on FanDuel. This week, Darren Waller is among them, where he leads two of the models. We frequently discuss in this space the looser pricing structure on FanDuel. Due to that, you end up needing high scores across your roster, including at tight end, to take down tournaments. Guys like Waller (and Kelce) are going to stand out there for that reason.
Waller has actually been a bit disappointing since his 19 targets in Week 1. He’s been targeted exactly seven times in each of the last three games, with a high score of 13 points on FanDuel. Even so, he still leads all tight ends in targets and trails only Kelce in PPR points on the year.
That Week 1 game shows us a ceiling that no other tight end on the slate can reach, though.
That ceiling is really what it’s all about if you’re considering Waller. He has a slate leading Ceiling Projection in our models on both sites, and it’s not particularly close. If Waller is the highest scoring tight end this week by a 10 point margin, his salary won’t really matter.
Most people are overconfident in their ability to predict these blowup spots. What was it about the Ravens game that led to him being the focal point of the Raiders offense? I’m not sure, and almost anybody who tells you they are is wrong. That means we need to either have exposure to (players like) Waller in tournaments every week or decide ahead of time not to. It’s perfectly fine to say, “If he blows up, I’m not winning tournaments that week,” since most weeks, you won’t win anyway. However, the worst way to handle it is to play whack-a-mole with Waller lineups and end up missing the big weeks while rostering him when it’s less optimal.
All of this is an extremely long-winded way to say this: There’s nothing particularly appealing about Waller’s matchup this week. The Bears defense allows a negative Opponent Plus/Minus Score to tight ends. The Raiders team and game Vegas totals are mediocre at best. Chicago has a top-10 pass defense by DVOA. But Waller can still get it done in those games. I expect Waller to project at lower ownership this week than he usually does, which means it’s the perfect time to get him in your lineups.
George Kittle ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) San Francisco 49ers (+5) at Arizona Cardinals (50.5 total)
Like Waller, Kittle leads two of our Pro’s FanDuel models. He’s essentially arbitrage Waller this week for a matchup with the Cardinals. Kittle is being utilized like the high-end tight end that he is recently, seeing 20 targets the past two weeks. Normally, I’d write that off as variance, but he saw his season-high in targets with Trey Lance under center. It’s entirely possible that the rookie will continue to use Kittle as a safety valve.
This season, Kittle hasn’t been a great fantasy tight end, but I expect that to change with Lance at the helm. When we factor in increased workload with Kittles yards after the catch prowess (second in all tight ends in YAC, trailing only Travis Kelce on five fewer catches), he can pile up yards in a hurry. Kittle has also been held scoreless so far on the season, and the touchdowns will come soon.
This is a great game environment for Kittle as well. The Niners are moderate underdogs to the explosive Cardinals, so I expect an uptick in pass rate. Kittle has performed better when San Fran is at least a three-point underdog, per our Trends tool:
The Cardinals aren’t the no-brainer matchup for tight ends they were in years past, but it doesn’t matter for players of Kittles caliber. He trails only Waller across our Projections on FanDuel, including Median, Ceiling, and Pts/Sal.
Robert Tonyan ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) Green Bay Packers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (51.5 total)
Tonyan is the last tight end to lead one of our FanDuel models. If you’re looking to save a little bit of salary — while still having some upside — Tonyan makes a lot of sense. He’s yet to top three receptions in a game this season, but we saw last year what he’s capable of.
Last season, Tonyan scored 11 touchdowns on only 52 catches. While this was obviously unsustainable, Aaron Rodgers clearly looks to Big Bob in the red zone. With this game having the second-highest total on the slate, somebody will be scoring frequently. With tight ends in general — and on FanDuel specifically — we’re looking to catch the two or three-touchdown game to differentiate our rosters in tournaments. Tonyan probably has the best shot of such a game among all the tight ends in his price range.
With his disappointing start to the season, this could also be a perfect time to buy low on Tonyan. The field will be reacting to his underwhelming volume and likely leaving him off most of their lineups. He’s not a safe pick and should be left off of cash lineups, but is worth a look in GPPs.
Jared Cook ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) Los Angeles Chargers (-2) vs Cleveland Browns (46.5 total)
Moving over to the preferred plays on DraftKings, we have Jared Cook. The leader in the Hodge Model, Cook, has been a sneaky top-12 tight end this season. The wide receivers are getting most of the fanfare for the Chargers, but Cook is seeing a solid 5.8 targets per game.
This matchup also sets up better than most for Cook, which I’ll explain. While Clevland, on paper, is a strong defense, they’re actually middle of the road (13th DVOA) against the pass. They also have a fearsome pass rush, which favors players who run shorter routes. Kelce had his best game so far this season against the Browns. Cook is no Kelce, but he’s a better player than the tight ends the Browns have faced since then (Tyler Conklin, Cole Kmet, and Jordan Akins).
With the importance of finding value in your DraftKings lineups, Cook makes a lot of sense. He ranks second on the slate in Pts/Sal. He’ll likely need to add a touchdown to give you a super strong score, but he probably won’t hurt your lineups either way.
Hunter Henry ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) New England Patriots (-8.5) at Houston Texans (40 total)
Henry and teammate Jonnu Smith have both seen 11 targets over the past two weeks. In that time frame, Henry has a 9/68/1 stat line. Smith’s is 4/18/1. In a perfect scenario, Belichick would take note of this difference in efficiency and feature more routes to Henry and less to Jonnu moving forward.
I’m not sure that’s the most likely scenario, but we can still benefit from Henry’s production. Particularly in a great matchup against Houston. The Texans have already allowed three 20-point tight end scores against them this season while allowing a +2.4 Opponent Plus/Minus. Both Patriots tight ends are viable options this week, but Henry is preferred.
Henry is fourth in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings this week. The Patriots are unlikely to throw the ball to anyone — much less Henry — enough to post a monster game. However, he provides a solid floor and some salary relief. He makes a ton of sense for cash games and also fits certain builds for tournaments. He leads two of our Pro Models on DraftKings.
Ricky Seals-Jones ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) Washington Football Team (+2) vs. New Orleans Saints (44.5 total)
Speaking of saving salary, RSJ is stone-minimum priced on DraftKings this week. He’s suddenly the starter for the Football Team, with Logan Thomas on injured reserve. I’m a bit surprised DraftKings didn’t move his price up to the Henry/Cook range. We knew Thomas would be out before pricing was announced.
Even as the starter, the role isn’t the best for Seals-Jones. He was in on 62-of-67 snaps last week but only garnered four targets. This is a pure punt play, but that can be valuable on DraftKings. If he hauls in even three or four catches with full PPR scoring, that can be enough at the minimum salary.
As with any tight end, things get interesting if he adds a touchdown. One scoring catch (of at least five yards) would instantly be a three point-per-$1,000 score at his pricing. That would be a stronger Pts/Sal than we have any tight end projected for presently. Speaking of, Seals-Jones leads the slate with his 2.9 Pts/Sal.
While we’d need some luck for the play to really pay off, Seals-Jones helps your lineup, but what he allows you to do with the salary you save. His Median Projection is three or more points higher than any of the other minimum-priced players at the position. He’s especially appealing for cash games but has some tournament value too.
Other Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside
TJ Hockenson ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) Detroit Lions (+9) at Minnesota Vikings (49 total)
Hockenson started off the year strong, with back-to-back 20-point games on DraftKings. Since then, he’s scored 11 points total. Regardless, he’s clearly the most talented option of this Lions’ passing attack. My biggest concern is that Hockenson will be called on to protect Jared Goff more frequently this week. The Lions offensive line is missing several starters.
Either way, his ceiling is as high as anybody at the position. The Lions will have to get yards from somebody, right?
Noah Fant ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) Denver Broncos (+1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (40 total)
Fant is a solid value on both sites this week. He trails only Waller and Hockenson among main-slate tight ends in PPR scoring this year but is the sixth-most expensive tight end on FanDuel. The Broncos are missing Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler from their passing attack, leading to a 10-target Week 4 for Fant. The matchup with the Steelers isn’t ideal, but Fant could still get there.
Dalton Schultz ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. New York Giants (52 total)
Dalton Schultz has outscored every tight end on Sunday’s main slate not named Darren Waller. Preseason expectations were that Schultz and fellow Cowboy Blake Jarwin would split tight-end reps this season, but Schultz has pulled away. He’s out-targeted Jarwin 23-13 and already has three touchdowns on the season.
The Giants are 24th in DVOA against the pass, so the matchup is there too. We’re about one solid game away from Schultz seeing his DraftKings salary in the Hockenson/Fant range. He’s already there on FanDuel, so I’d keep my Schultz exposure to DraftKings.
