I started playing DFS on DraftStreet in 2013. For the next six years, I primarily played cash games because I was in love with the slow, methodical grind, along with the safety that comes from playing a format where you only have to beat one other person or roughly half the field if you’re in 50/50s or double-ups.
Nowadays, I’ve decided to pull the ripcord on the safety net so that I could seek out more upside.
The hardest part of switching to GPP only? Getting comfortable with losing … a lot more often. However, with proper game selection and bankroll management, all you need is one or two nice scores to be in the black when the season ends.
And when you’re mainly targeting small-field GPPs, your lineups don’t need to be as perfect compared to when you’re entering these larger fields. Personally, I consider a small field as a tournament with 500 or fewer people, but some DFS players may have a broader definition.
And typically, I am playing in tournaments with 300 or fewer people.
Anyway, each week I’ll be using our extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools and the FantasyLabs Player Models to discuss my overall strategy for how I’m attacking these smaller fields.
Additionally, our Lineup Builder is the perfect tool to use when hand-building your lineups.
General Strategy
My overall strategy for these formats is quite simple. I try to find the best spots to correlate and utilize the Leverage Scores in our Player Models to find pivots off of players who are projected for higher rostership.
A lot of the time, when looking for games to target, you land on high-total games because that’s where we’d expect the most points to be scored. Naturally, high-total games come with higher projected ownership on certain players. However, it’s still possible to have unique builds when targeting these games, and we can still insert other one-off plays to differentiate our lineups.
You don’t need a whole lineup of contrarian plays to win a small-field tournament, though it helps to pivot in the right spots. I also tend to rely on the Ceiling Projections instead of Median Projections when I am making my lineup decisions.
Also, keep in mind the projected ownership levels in the models are geared toward large-field GPPs, so there is some guesswork on estimating ownership projections for smaller fields.
Note: I play these small-field tournaments on DraftKings, so that’s what this analysis will focus on.
Games I’m Targeting
New York Giants (22.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (29.5)
The Giants-Cowboys game opened with a total of 49.5, per our Vegas Dashboard, but it has been bet all the way up to 52 since then.
I haven’t quite landed on a favorite stack for single entry yet, but in three-entry max, some exposure to this game makes sense. Dak Prescott would be my preferred quarterback in this game because he has the second-highest Ceiling Projection in my personal FantasyLabs Model, which has custom projection weights from us and our partners.
Additionally, Dak still has a relatively neutral Leverage Rating. I also think there’s a chance some people talk themselves off of Dak because they think the Cowboys won’t need to pass much in this spot.
While it’s fair to worry about his passing volume in this game, his 0.60 fantasy points per dropback is still the 11th-best mark in the league. If the game script doesn’t go as people anticipate, Dak could smash his projection.
As I mentioned above, one of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is that you can apply different weights to our NFL projections from some of our partners (may require separate purchases) to create an aggregate set to your specifications (you can also upload your own):
When I make my preferred inputs, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper have the fourth and seventh-highest Ceiling Projection. I don’t mind double-stacking here if you’re not concerned about Cooper’s hamstring. Both of these receivers combine for 46% of the Cowboys’ target share. Lamb is my preferred guy for a single stack.
Evan Engram or Kadarius Toney stand out as the bring-back options if you don’t want to pay $5,900 for Kenny Golladay. Engram and Toney’s cheap salary will allow for roster flexibility elsewhere.
As of Saturday morning, this game projects to have relatively high ownership, so we’ll need to differentiate elsewhere in our roster if we go this route.
Green Bay Packers (26.5) vs. Cinncinati Bengals (24)
This game is the prototypical one to target as we have a high 50.5 total (increased from 48.5 opening line) and a close 2.5-point spread.
Like the Giants-Cowboys game, the main issue is that a lot of these pieces project to be highly rostered. That said, high is rostership is always for a good reason; they’re good plays.
I don’t care that Davante Adams may be the most rostered guy on the slate. It’s going to be hard to get away from him and his 36% target share. Even with his high ownership projection, Adams boasts an 82% Leverage Rating because his Ceiling Projection is five points higher than the next receiver behind him.
I prefer the Joe Burrow side for the quarterback target in this game because you’ll get $1,000 in savings over Aaron Rodgers. That $1,000 could be important if you’re trying to use both Adams and Derrick Henry in your lineups. That said, if you can make it work, Rodgers has the highest Leverage Score in our Player Models among quarterbacks.
The tricky part about stacking this game is Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins are all good plays. And through three weeks, all three receivers have between a 24-29% target share.
For a pick’em scenario like this, I’ll side with the player who has a lower ownership projection. Chase is the most expensive of this trio at $5,800, but he also boasts the highest Ceiling Projection and Leverage Rating.
Mike Randle also makes a case for Burrow + Chase in his Stacks article.
One-Off Plays
Usually, these one-off plays are where I am looking to differentiate my roster from everyone else, especially if the stacks I am targeting project to be highly rostered.
My reasoning behind these plays is rather minimalistic — I look at projected ownership and Ceiling Projections. Those two things combined are where we get our Leverage Scores and Ratings.
Rostering Josh Jacobs could make you squeamish, but he practiced in full the last two days and is coming off an 18-touch game, and the Raiders are checking in as 5.5-point favorites vs. the Bears. Additionally, Jacobs is projecting as a good value with a +3.9 Projected Plus/Minus in my model, along with the 12th-highest Ceiling Projection, resulting in a 74% Leverage Rating because of his low projected ownership.
Chase Edmonds has the 11th-highest Ceiling Projection in my model, along with a 70% Leverage Rating. Where this gets tricky is that he’s a game-time decision against the 49ers. However, since he’s $5,900, and if he ends up being ruled out, we can pivot down to James Conner at $5,600.
While Derrick Henry will likely be the highest rostered guy along with Davante Adams, he still has a positive Leverage Score and 86% Leverage Rating because of his massive ceiling. Rostering him just comes down to what the rest of your roster looks like.
With how expensive Henry is, Austin Ekeler‘s price range may get overlooked entirely. He currently has the sixth-highest Ceiling Projection and a top-eight Leverage Score.
Robby Anderson’s ceiling and Projected Plus/Minus (my most weighted sliders) have him as the No. 7 receiver in my FantasyLabs Model. He’s a strong pivot off Antonio Brown, who is projected for nearly triple the ownership.
As of Saturday morning, A.J. Brown has a moderate 11.2% Ownership Projection, which gives him a solid 86% Leverage Rating because he has the eighth-highest Ceiling Projection. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him gain more steam as lock approaches.
It’s also noteworthy that this entire group is going overlooked this week. This is for a few reasons: it’s harder to get to these guys if you’re rostering both Henry and Adams. None of these guys project as strong values, and DJ Moore at $7,500 currently has a 19% Ownership Projection.
It’s very easy to see the leverage spots in the FantasyLabs Player Models.
Dalton Schultz could also be included in the Giants-Cowboys stacks. He’s looking like a decent leverage play because he has a moderate 7% Ownership Projection, and he has the second-highest Ceiling Projection in my model, along with a 93% Leverage Rating.
Other Viable One-Off Plays with a Positive Leverage Score or Leverage Rating
- Aaron Jones
- Jakobi Meyers (borderline, 60% Leverage Rating)
- Adam Thielen
- Noah Fant
- Mike Gesicki
Sunday Morning Update
With Dalvin Cook getting ruled out, I’m in on Alexander Mattison even though he’ll be incredibly highly rostered. It’s too good of a spot, and his price is too appealing. In my FantasyLabs Player Model, Mattison has the second-highest Ceiling Projection.
Additionally, in my Giants-Cowboys stack, I may consider using Saquon Barkley as the bring-back option. At the time of writing, he has the fourth-highest Ceiling Projection among running backs and an 89% Leverage Rating.
Other one-off plays I am considering since this piece has been written: Chris Godwin (82% Leverage Rating), Henry Ruggs (95% Leverage Rating), Cameron Brate (60% Leverage Rating).
If you’re struggling to get a feel for the slate, we also have some optimizer templates in our Lineup Optimizer that you can use to see where the raw projections are leaning for stacks:
