Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Kyren Williams ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
Williams was a breakout star in 2023, but he entered the 2024 season with some workload concerns. The team used a third-round pick on Blake Corum, and some thought he’d eat into Williams’ production. The fact that Williams was going to work on punt returns didn’t help matters, which caused his fantasy stock to plummet.
Turns out, all of those concerns were unfounded.
Williams has picked up right where he left off to start the new season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in all four games, and he’s the No. 4 running back in terms of PPR points per game.
With the Rams dealing with injuries to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Williams has taken his production up a notch. He’s scored at least 20.4 DraftKings in back-to-back games, including 31.6 DraftKings points as a big underdog vs. the 49ers. Overall, he’s posted an 85% snap share and 77% carry share, and he’s been targeted on 15% of his routes run.
Williams draws a difficult matchup this week vs. the Packers, who are No. 2 in rush defense EPA through the first four weeks. However, they’re a much more reasonable 15th in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position. With the way Williams has been playing of late, he’s simply too cheap to ignore in basically any matchup. He leads the way in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Jordan Mason ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
Mason has been a staple of this column ever since he took over as the 49ers’ starting running back. He’s absolutely crushed in that role, scoring at least 20.4 DraftKings points in three of his first four games. He’s had at least 19 carries in all four contests, and he’s responded with at least 100 yards and a touchdown in three of them.
From a workload perspective, Mason is getting more opportunities than just about any running back in football. His 72% carry share is the second-highest mark in the league – trailing only Williams – while his 62% route participation ranks fifth at the position. He also gets nearly every carry from inside the five-yard line for the 49ers, which makes him one of the most likely players to score on a weekly basis.
His chances for at least one touchdown are really strong in Week 5. He’s taking on the Cardinals, with the 49ers listed as massive 7.5-point favorites. This game also has the highest total of the week at 50.0 points, and the 49ers’ implied team total of 28.75 is the top mark on the slate by a wide margin.
Targeting big favorites at running back is typically a strong strategy. RBs tend to get more opportunities in favorable game scripts, and we’ve seen that with Mason this season: He’s averaged 26.0 carries in the team’s two wins. Historically, RBs with comparable price tags have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.32 when favored by at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool).
Mason remains way too cheap on DraftKings, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s still in play at $8,700 on FanDuel, but he’s arguably the top overall option on DK.
Chuba Hubbard ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
The Panthers made the decision to swap to Andy Dalton at quarterback in Week 3, and the decision has paid massive dividends for their offense. They’ve averaged 30.0 points in their two contests, with Hubbard standing out as one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Hubbard has also started to carve out a bigger workload in the Panthers’ backfield. He split the carries pretty evenly with Miles Sanders over the first two weeks, but he’s had 67% and 68% of the carries in the past two weeks. Sanders is not going away completely – he stole a touch from inside the five in Week 3 and is still playing on passing downs – but Hubbard has established himself as the clear early-down runner for the Panthers.
Those two factors have combined to make Hubbard an excellent source of value. He’s scored 30.9 and 25.1 DraftKings points in his past two contests, despite a sub-$6k price tag on DraftKings in both.
He’s starting to get priced a bit more fairly, but he still stands out as one of the best pure values of the week. His matchup vs. the Bears should also help his outlook. They’ve been much easier to run on than pass on this season, resulting in the ninth-most fantasy points per game allowed to the position.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Derrick Henry ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
The Big Dog is officially back. His Ravens’ tenure got off to an inauspicious start, plodding for just 46 yards on 13 carries vs. the Chiefs. He managed to salvage his fantasy day with a touchdown, but it was not the performance fantasy players were dreaming of alongside Lamar Jackson.
Since then, Henry has taken off. Specifically, he has looked unstoppable over the past two weeks. He’s had 49 carries in those contests, and he’s responded with 350 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. That’s good for an average of 7.14 yards per carry. Henry has also chipped in as a pass-catcher, adding four grabs, 33 yards, and another touchdown in his past two games.
Add it all up, and Henry has been a top-three scorer at the position in back-to-back weeks, including a No. 1 finish in Week 4. Despite getting a bit long in the tooth, he still possesses one of the highest ceilings at RB on a weekly basis.
That seems particularly true this week vs. the Bengals. Their rush defense has been a joke this season after losing D.J. Reader in the offseason. They’re 29th in rush defense EPA, and they’ve surrendered at least 149 rushing yards in three of four games. The stage is set for another monster Henry performance.
Kenneth Walker ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Walker returned to the lineup in Week 4, and he picked up right where he left off. He served as the team’s clear RB1 on early downs, racking up 75% of the team’s carries. That only ended up being 12 attempts in a game where the team trailed throughout, but he still finished with 80 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
Walker’s workload has the potential to be much more robust on Sunday. They’re taking on the Giants in a game where the Seahawks are favored by nearly a touchdown. New York is also expected to be without Malik Nabers and possibly Devin Singletary, so I’m not sure how they’re going to keep up offensively. Ultimately, it’s a game where Seattle could be looking to kill the clock late.
Walker’s ceiling projection is only slightly lower than Henry, Williams, and Mason’s, but he checks in at a slight discount.
D’Andre Swift ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
Swift was basically a non-factor through the Bears’ first three outings, finishing with just 68 rushing yards and 46 receiving yards. However, he was getting most of the opportunities out of the team’s backfield. His role as a pass-catcher was also increasing, so there were some encouraging signs that the breakout was coming.
That’s exactly what happened in Week 4. He racked up 165 total yards with seven catches, and he also found the endzone for the first time all season.
The usage as a pass-catcher was most exciting for his fantasy prospects. He had seven targets and a 33% target share, which is a massive figure. Alvin Kamara is the only RB with a target share above 20% so far this season, so if Swift can continue to catch passes at that rate, he’s going to be very valuable in PPR formats.
Swift draws an excellent matchup this week vs. the Panthers. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.4 is the top mark at the position, and the Panthers have allowed the second-most PPR points to the position this season. Add in the fact that the Bears are favored, and it’s about as good of a spot as it possibly gets.
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Trey Sermon ($5,700 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
There’s a chance that Sermon becomes a bit more popular as the week goes on, but he’s currently projected for less than 10% ownership in the Colts’ backfield. That’s despite the fact that Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out with an injury.
Sermon still isn’t grading out as an elite value in our Models – he’s likely going to have to split the work with Tyler Goodson – but he’s been Taylor’s clear backup for most of the year. That gives him the best chance at getting the lion’s share of the touches.
The Colts are underdogs against the Jaguars on Sunday, but it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see them establish a lead. Jacksonville is 0-4 this season, and they’ve been one of the worst teams in the league offensively. If Sermon can get 12-15 carries, he has the potential to provide excellent value.
Tyrone Tracy ($4,300 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel)
The Giants are another team expected to be without their starting running back, with Singletary listed as doubtful. That leaves Tracy and Eric Gray to handle most of the opportunities. Tracy has gotten more opportunities than Singletary of late, so that would seem to give him the inside track for the starting job.
Tracy hasn’t made the most of his carries this season, averaging just 2.4 yards per attempt, but he’s shown some chops as a pass-catcher. That gives him some DFS appeal, especially in a game where the Giants are expected to be playing from behind. Player Profiler lists his closest comp as Raachad White, which is pretty high praise from a pass-catching perspective.
Tracy is dirt cheap across the industry, so he doesn’t need to do much to potentially return value. His ceiling doesn’t feel super high, but that’s ok at a sub-$5,000 salary.
James Conner ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
Conner is almost always projected for less ownership than optimal in SimLabs, and this week is no exception. He’s not expected to garner much attention vs. the 49ers, especially with the Cardinals listed as sizable underdogs.
However, Conner has found value in that role previously. He had 19.3 DraftKings points as a sizable dog in Week 1, and he’s had at least that many points in three of his four outings. He’s simply too cheap at $6,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a 96% Bargain Rating.
Travis Etienne ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
Etienne’s stock is at an all-time low. He hasn’t exactly been bad – he’s averaged 4.6 yards per attempt with two touchdowns – but backup Tank Bigsby has been phenomenal. He’s racked up more than eight yards per carry, so he’s starting to eat into Etienne’s workload.
Still, Etienne remains the No. 1 in Jacksonville for the time being, making him an intriguing buy-low option vs. the Colts. They have an exploitable defense, and the Jaguars are listed as slight home favorites. Etienne has historically averaged 17.51 DraftKings points per game in that split, good for an average Plus/Minus of +4.28.
