In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 5 Fantasy Rankings (as of Friday):
- Derrick Henry (1st)
- Najee Harris (3rd)
- Leonard Fournette (15th)
- Chase Edmonds (16th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Monday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
Derrick Henry ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel) Tennessee Titans (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (49 total)
Derrick Henry is an incredibly scary fade right now. Since a disappointing Week 1, he’s scored over 100 DraftKings points over the last three contests. His workload has been massive — he has 30 more carries than any other back in the league. He’s finally seeing a notable pass-game role as well. This offense under new coordinator Todd Downing has fed Henry almost four targets per game in 2021. He’s never seen more than two a game across a season in his career. Adding in a few receptions gives Henry a solid floor to go with his already sky-high ceiling.
The biggest question mark for Henry this week will be the health status of the Titans wide receivers. Last week, with Julio Jones and AJ Brown both out of action, Henry saw a ridiculous 35 touches. His efficiency was low (by his standards, though) as the Jets were able to sell out to stop the run. (Side note, it’s wild that 4.8 yards per rush is considered low efficiency, but Henry topped 5.0 both of the last two seasons).
Based on practice reports (as of Friday afternoon), I’m expecting Brown to be back but Jones to remain out. Julio has yet to practice this week, while Brown got in a full practice on Thursday. This might just be the best-case scenario for Henry: the Titans are short-handed enough that they need to rely on him, but the deep-threat of Brown is there to keep defenses honest. Be sure to follow our news page as we get closer to lock.
It’s also a tremendous matchup against the Jags. Henry’s increased success as a favorite is well documented, and the Jags rank 30th in overall defense on the year. They’re also playing at the ninth-fastest situation-neutral pace, so we can expect a boost to overall play volume this week.
The only reason to consider fading Henry this week is projected ownership, which will be among the slate’s highest. His salary (at least on DraftKings) isn’t really an issue — he trails only Leonard Fournette in Pts/Sal. Henry leads two of our Pro’s Models on DraftKings and is the highest projected back on both sites.
Editor’s note: Julio has been ruled out as of Friday afternoon.
Najee Harris ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) vs Denver Broncos (40 total)
Harris leads one of our models on FanDuel, where he has a tremendous 92% Bargain Rating. Najee is the RB8 in half-point PPR scoring (like FanDuel’s) this season. He’s done most of his damage through the air, seeing a position-high 34 targets through four games. The Steelers offensive line has been awful, ranking dead last in the league in adjusted line yards.
This creates an unfortunate situation for Harris this week. He plays better on DraftKings, where his catches are more valuable. He’s a better bargain on FanDuel, though. There’s not really a good answer for DFS players on which site to focus Najee exposure on this week.
There are also matchup concerns. Denver is one of the three best (or worst for the offense) defenses in Opponent Plus/Minus Allowed to running backs on the season. When you factor in the slate-low implied Vegas total of this game, the game environment leads something to be desired.
I do get why Harris still manages to lead a FanDuel model, though. His price is far lower than his workload. Fantasy is, after all, a game of volume. Najee is selling touches cheaper than any player on the slate. Whether or not those touches lead to fantasy production is the question.
Leonard Fournette ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) vs Miami Dolphins (47.5 total)
Uncle Lenny leads three of our models on DraftKings and one on FanDuel. He’s our leader in Projected Plus/Minus on both sites as of Friday afternoon. This projection is largely dependent on the health of Giovani Bernard, who has practiced on a limited basis after missing last week. We currently have Bernard missing the game, but be sure to keep a close eye on that.
Fournette has seen more than double the carries of Ronald Jones so far this season and is quickly turning what was once a committee backfield into a starter and backup situation. He’s really shined in the passing game, though, where he’d added an additional seven DraftKings points per game. If Bernard (five targets per game) misses again, Fournette should see around 80% of Tampa’s total running back production.
Fournette is priced — particularly on DraftKings — at a bargain even with Bernard in, though. The Dolphins have the second-worst Opp Plus/Minus Allowed to running backs and are 20th in rushing DVOA. We might even get a touchdown for Fournette this week! He’s currently a top-25 PPR back on the season without a score to date.
Fournette is either a must-play (at least in cash) or a very strong play this week, depending on Bernard. I prefer him on DraftKings either way. He’s a better bargain, and his role works better there. We have him projected as the slate’s most rostered back, so it’s a more interesting discussion in tournaments. We haven’t seen a game from him since the Jacksonville days that would make you regret a fade at 30% projected ownership.
Chase Edmonds ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) Arizona Cardinals (-5) vs San Francisco 49ers (47 total)
The Cardinals backfield is another heavily injury-dependent situation (it’s that time of year). Neither Edmonds nor James Conner practiced Thursday, with Edmonds returning as a limited participant Friday. Conner’s absence seems to be non-injury related, but Edmonds is nursing a shoulder injury and is a game-time decision. While this is, in theory, a Chase Edmonds write-up since he leads two of our FanDuel Models. Both backs are worth discussing here.
So far this season, Conner has seen slightly more of the rushing work and virtually no pass game involvement (only three targets). This makes Edmonds the better choice if he’s a full go on Sunday. However, Conner is the goal-line back. He’s seen twice the amount of red-zone work compared to Edmonds. This gives Conner some stand-alone value, especially on FanDuel.
If either man were to miss, the other would be of tremendous value. Conner is priced just below Edmonds on DraftKings and $100 more on FanDuel. This is very convenient, as it allows us some flexibility to wait for news on Edmonds. It’s a very simple late swap to Conner (just make sure to leave an extra $100 in salary free on FanDuel lineups with Edmonds).
I’m not sure how much injury uncertainty will impact Edmonds projected ownership. Usually, questionable players in 4 PM games are avoided by the field. However, with such an obvious late-swap opportunity, that effect will likely be lessened in this case. We currently have Edmonds projected around RB11 in terms of projected ownership.
The matchup is fairly standard; the 49ers defense is middle of the pack against both the run and the pass. The Cardinals as moderate favorites should be considered a boost to the running backs in general, though.
This situation could make or break DFS lineups this week, so be sure to keep a close eye on it. One of them (with a greater likelihood for Edmonds) could post a very strong price-considered score even with both of them healthy. They’re both borderline must-plays if one of them is ruled out.
Other Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside
Saquon Barkley ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) New York Giants (+7) at Dallas Cowboys (52 total)
Saquon has continued his streak of increasing his fantasy score each week of the season. It will obviously come to an end at some point (his 29.6 on DraftKings last week is a tall hurdle), but it’s still encouraging as he works back from health. The Giants could be down two wideouts for Week 5, which only helps Saquon’s already solid passing-game role. Dallas has a much-improved defense compared to a year ago but still ranks 19th against the rush. My guess is that this time next month, Saquon will be priced at least $1,000 higher on both sites, and we’ll be talking about him in the upper portion of this piece.
Austin Ekeler ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) Los Angeles Chargers (-2) vs Cleveland Browns (47 total)
Ekeler is the RB2 in fantasy scoring (both sites) behind only Derrick Henry on the year. He’s also almost $3,000 cheaper than Henry on FanDuel. Ekeler should probably be considered a CMC-esque matchup-independent back moving forward. I suspect the matchup is what’s suppressing his price. Cleveland has the best rush defense in the league by DVOA.
However, Ekeler is averaging six catches per game over the last three weeks, so he doesn’t need tremendous rushing production to get there in fantasy. Like Saquon, it’s likely that we’re talking about him in the upper $8,000 salary range sooner rather than later.
Joe Mixon ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) Cincinnati Bengals (+3) vs. Green Bay Packers (50 total)
It sounds like we’ll get news on Mixon’s availability sometime on Saturday. If he’s in, he’s a great play. Here’s a tweet from Monday (by yours truly) that covers it:
Joe Mixon: 92 opportunities on the year, facing the 25th ranked defense (by rush DVOA, pre week 5 update) $6,200 on DraftKings
Aaron Jones: 71 opportunities, facing 2nd best rush defense, $7,900.
Take the names away and those salaries are flipped this week.
— Billy Ward (@Psychoward586) October 5, 2021
If Mixon’s a full go, he’s one of the best plays of the week.
Ezekiel Elliot ($7,00 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. New York Giants (52 total)
Zeke is no longer a workhorse, but he still has a solid role in Dallas. Especially as solid favorites against the Giants, he should see his fair share of carries on Sunday. He’s seen at least 16 carries in each of the Cowboys’ wins. Tony Pollard taking the preponderance of passing game work lowers his floor, but would a two or three-touchdown game from Elliot really surprise anyone this week?
Editor’s note: Zeke (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday.
Nick Chubb ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) and Kareem Hunt ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) Cleveland Browns (+2) at Los Angeles Chargers (47 total)
I’m only mentioning Chubb here because he leads our models in Leverage Score this week. For those who don’t know, a player’s Leverage Score is his Ownership Projection rank minus his Ceiling Projection rank. Chubb is a solid seventh in Ceiling Projection but coming in at under 5% projected ownership. The Browns are underdogs, which normally favors Kareem Hunt, but it’s a close enough spread to not really matter.
Alvin Kamara ($8,600 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) New Orleans Saints (-2) at Washington Football Team (43.5 total)
Remember when Kamara was the league’s best receiving back? This season he’s averaging only 3.5 targets per game and didn’t see one last week. He has carried the ball at least 20 times in three of four games so far this year, though. That might be enough against Washington, whose much-hyped defense has struggled so far this year. I have no interest in Kamara on DraftKings (at least until we see him more involved in the passing game), but he’s interesting on FanDuel this week.
