In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Josh Allen
- Tom Brady
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Josh Allen ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-14) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (46.5 total)
Despite battling wind and rain in Baltimore last week, Josh Allen still racked up 24.52 DraftKings points and led Buffalo to a come-from-behind win against the Ravens. It was Allen’s first game below 30 DraftKings points on the year.
He couldn’t get much going with his arm, only throwing for 213 yards through the air. Allen was able to rack up some fantasy points on the ground though, as he ran for a season-high 70 yards on 11 attempts and also found the end zone on the ground. Allen is the only quarterback who has accounted for 100% of his team’s offensive touchdowns via the air and ground.
There hasn’t been much of a downfield threat for Buffalo outside of Diggs, as Gabe Daivs hasn’t looked like himself due to an ankle injury. However, Allen has still produced at an elite level, and we don’t expect that to change. Allen’s outlook remains high, as he’s set up against a middling Pittsburgh defense.
The Steelers have given up the 19th most points through the air through opposing quarterbacks while playing Mac Jones, Jacoby Brissett, and Zach Wilson. Allen presents a whole other level of quarterback play, and Pittsburgh will have a hard time keeping him contained.
This Steelers defense is also battling injuries, with T.J. Watt already out and Minkah Fitzpatrick, Terrell Edmunds, Cameron Sutton, Cameron Heyward, and Levi Wallace all missing some practice due to injuries.
Allen leads all quarterbacks in Projected Plus/Minus and has the highest floor and ceiling projections by multiple points.
He also leads our Cash Game Model and Sean Koerner’s Pro Model this week.
Tom Brady ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) vs. Atlanta Falcons (46.5 total)
Outside of all narratives, Tom Brady shapes up as a solid DFS option this weekend. The Buccaneers have finally gotten healthy at the wide receiver position, and we saw it reap benefits for Brady. He posted 29.4 DraftKings points last Sunday Night against Kansas City after combining for 36.52 DraftKings points in his first three games.
The game script definitely helped Brady, but the Bucs looked more like their old self with how much they passed it. Brady attempted 52 passes, while they only ran the ball six times. Obviously, the split won’t be this extreme going forward, but we should expect Tampa Bay to lean on the pass more than they have. With the receivers at full strength, we should see Brady return to his former self.
Brady threw for 300+ yards in nine regular season games last year and threw for three or more touchdowns in eight. For a quarterback without much equity on the ground, Brady provides a fairly high ceiling at the quarterback position. He now gets to match up with the Atlanta Falcons, who he’s had his way with the past few years. He threw for 644 yards and nine touchdowns in his two matchups against the Falcons last year.
The Falcons have given up the eleventh most fantasy points through the air to opposing quarterbacks yet haven’t faced that elite of competition. They’ve faced Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith, and Jacoby Brissett. Brady has been dealing with injuries to his finger and right shoulder, but he should be good to go.
Brady leads Chris Raybon’s Pro Model, as well as our Tournament Model this week on DraftKings.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Jalen Hurts ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-5) at Arizona Cardinals (48.5 total)
Jalen Hurts was slowed down last week by the wind and rain, as he was only able to muster 16.96 DraftKings points against the Jaguars. Weather will not be an issue this week as Hurts and the Eagles travel to Arizona to battle against the Cardinals. Arizona ranks 24th in yards allowed per attempt, 25th in completion rate, and 27th in touchdown rate. These numbers include their performance against Baker Mayfield and the lowly Panthers last week.
Hurts has a high floor as his legs make him a focal point of Philly’s rushing attack. His ceiling has been capped by the game script. Hurts leads the entire league in fantasy points in the first half, as Philly has had commanding leads and been able to take their foot off of the gas. The Eagles went up big on Detroit in Week 1 despite what the final score says. They won in both Weeks 2-3 by 17+ and played in a gross game against the Jaguars last week. If the Cardinals are able to put up a fight against the Eagles, we could see a ceiling game from Hurts.
Justin Herbert ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns (47.5 total)
Herbert rebounded strongly from his rib injury, accruing 24.1 DraftKings points in a double-digit victory against the Texans. He gets a slightly tougher matchup this week against the Browns. Despite missing Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney, the Browns led the league in pressure rate at 55% in Week 4. Cleveland did blitz on 50% of their dropbacks, which likely isn’t a good route to success against Herbert.
These teams matched up last year in a shootout in which Herbert threw for 398 yards and four touchdowns. It’s unlikely we see 89 combined points, but the upside is there. The Browns have given up the 14th-most fantasy points through the air to quarterbacks despite facing Baker Mayfield, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, and the man, the myth, the legend, Joe Flacco.
Herbert may be a sneaky tournament play this week.
Trevor Lawrence ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) vs. Houston Texans (43.5 total)
Trevor Lawrence would like nothing more than to forget about last weekend’s game against the Eagles. He lost four fumbles and threw an interception en route to 10.66 DraftKings points. He completed merely 47.8% of his passes and didn’t eclipse 200 yards. However, we move on, and we look forward.
The Texans run Cover-3, Cover-2, or man coverage on 82% of their passing snaps. Lawrence ranks eight in expected points added against those coverages while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He is a solid pay-down option at quarterback this week.
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