The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Anthony Richardson ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
It has been a rollercoaster start to the year for Richardson. It started out with a bang, rattling off 27.08 DraftKings points vs. the Texans in Week 1, but he’s been on a downswing ever since. He’s scored just 25.18 DraftKings points in his past three games combined, and he exited last week’s game with an injury.
Richardson’s status for Week 2 is still TBD, but all signs point towards him returning to the lineup. He’s been at practice for both sessions this week, and it was previously reported that Richardson could’ve returned vs. the Steelers if the team needed him to. Instead, they let Joe Flacco ride things out to a victory.
As long as Richardson can suit up vs. the Jaguars, he stands out as the clear top option for cash games. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he’s priced at his cheapest point of the entire season.
His poor play is obviously concerning, but Richardson was playing well before leaving last week’s game. His matchup this week is also phenomenal. The Jaguars have been shredded defensively this season, ranking 29th in EPA per play. They’re 30th in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Ultimately, Richardson possesses the fourth-highest ceiling projection at a very reasonable salary. It’s tough to pass up that combination.
Geno Smith ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
If Richardson is a bit too volatile for your liking, you could pivot to Smith at a very similar price point. He doesn’t provide the same rushing upside, but he makes up for it with more consistent passing production. He’s scored at least 18.84 DraftKings points in three of four games this season despite zero games with multiple passing touchdowns.
That could change this week vs. the Giants. Their defense isn’t a disaster, but they’re certainly not a unit you need to fear. They’re 20th in pass defense EPA, and the Seahawks’ implied team total of 25.0 is the fourth-highest mark on the main slate.
Smith likely won’t need to throw quite as much as he did vs. the Lions, but he should be efficient whenever he drops back to pass. He’s a low-risk option with moderate upside.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Jordan Love ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
Love returned to the Packers’ lineup last week, and he apparently had to shake some rust off early vs. the Vikings. The Packers didn’t get on the scoreboard until less than a minute to go in the second quarter, but Love erupted from that point on. He ultimately finished with 389 yards and four touchdowns, and his 34.16 DraftKings points was the second-best mark at the position.
Love should hopefully be able to start a bit stronger this week vs. the Rams. Their defense has been shredded all season, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal-callers. Love’s resulting +2.9 Opponent Plus/Minus is the fourth-best mark at the position.
The Packers are also listed as three-point favorites in the game with the third-highest total of the week. Their implied team total of 25.75 points ranks second on the slate, trailing only the 49ers’ gaudy mark of 28.5. It’s the highest implied team total of Love’s short career.
The only concern with Love is his potential ownership. He’s going to be very popular this week, and SimLabs sees him as over-owned compared to the optimal lineups. Still, his upside in this spot is undeniable.
Jayden Daniels ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
Daniels is another QB who isn’t going to catch anyone off guard this season. However, the difference between him and a guy like Love is that SimLabs still thinks he’s being undervalued. He’s showing up in the optimal lineup at a greater than 15% clip, so his 12% projected ownership on DraftKings is still a bit too low.
Daniels and the Commanders have been the No. 1 offense in football through the first four weeks. However, they’ve feasted on an easy schedule. They’ll get a stiffer test this week vs. the Browns, who were a historically good defense in 2023.
That said, they haven’t been quite as intimidating so far this season. They’re more like a middle-of-the-pack defense, though they’ve still been stingy in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
While the matchup isn’t ideal, it’s possible that the Commanders are just going to steamroll opponents all season. Their defense might surrender as many points as they score, but they’ve punted just once in their past three outings. They’re first in EPA per play and third in points per game, while Daniels is playing like an MVP candidate. If he has another big performance vs. the Browns, his stock will officially shoot to the moon.
Trevor Lawrence ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
It feels like Lawrence’s stock is at an all-time low. He’s been a disaster to start the year, posting a negative Plus/Minus in all four games, and the team is still looking for their first win of the season. It’s gotten to a point where Doug Pederson has to start thinking about updating his resume.
Fortunately, Lawrence gets the perfect matchup for his ailing fantasy production in Week 5 vs. the Colts. He has the top Opponent Plus/Minus at the position, and the Colts have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. They just got absolutely torched by Justin Fields, so it’s possible that Lawrence has a breakout game in this spot.
Lawrence has historically averaged just under 18 DraftKings points per game against Indy, which would be enough to pay off his current salary. Playing Lawrence certainly won’t make you feel warm and fuzzy, but he warrants consideration in this matchup.
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Daniel Jones ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
Jones is priced as one of the cheapest quarterbacks on the slate, which is pretty fair, all things considered. He’s likely going to be without Malik Nabers, and his week-to-week production is among the worst in the league at the position.
However, Jones is always capable of putting together a ceiling game, thanks to his rushing potential. He hasn’t run as much so far this season, but he’s averaged 31.0 rushing yards per game for his career. He also had a season with seven rushing TDs, and it’s possible he looks to use his legs a bit more without Nabers.
Matchup-wise, Jones also stands out. The Seahawks were absolutely blasted by the Lions on Monday Night Football, and now they have to play on short rest. The Giants will have extra rest after a TNF game in Week 4, so Jones has some sneaky appeal in tournaments.
Kyler Murray ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Murray stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $7,500 salary comes with an 81% Bargain Rating. He’s been quiet since erupting for 28.54 FanDuel points in Week 2 vs. the Rams, but he’s not going to have that luxury vs. the 49ers. They’re the largest underdogs on the slate, so Murray is likely going to be forced to drop back more than usual. Murray had 24.68 FanDuel points the last time he was an underdog of at least a touchdown.
Joe Burrow ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
The Bengals still have a lot of work to do, but they got on the board for their first win of the season in Week 4. Burrow and the offense have been rolling over the past two games, and with Tee Higgins back in the fold, it appears to be all systems go.
They’re going to have their hands full in Week 5 vs. the Ravens, but this game has the second-highest total of the week at 49.0 points. Burrow has also historically smashed as a home underdog, averaging 25.86 DraftKings points and a +6.02 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool). He brings plenty of upside to the table in this spot, despite his minimal ownership projections.
