In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 5 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening):
- Kyler Murray (4th)
- Daniel Jones (13th)
- Ryan Tannehill (14th)
- Trey Lance (31st)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday.
- Tight Ends on Thursday.
- Running Backs on Friday.
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray ($8,00 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) Arizona Cardinals (-5) vs San Francisco 49ers (50.5 total)
This week, Kyler is our fourth-ranked quarterback, but the three ahead of him (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen) are all playing in primetime games. That leases Kyler as the best option on Sunday’s main slate. He’s the unanimous leader of all five of our Pro’s FanDuel Models. A combination of looser pricing (allowing you to pay up at quarterback) and a 99% Bargain Rating will do that.
It’s hard to overstate how good Kyler has been this year. His Cardinals are the last remaining unbeaten team in the league, and he’s the leading MVP candidate currently, at +500 odds (via BetMGM). He trails only Mahomes in fantasy scoring on both sites so far this year. He also has a rock-solid floor, with his worst game still providing 19.54 FanDuel (22.54 DraftKings) points.
This week, he draws a plus matchup that should have him closer to his yearly ceiling than floor. The 49ers defense is nothing special, at 18th in pass DVOA, they’re slightly below average. They should also be able to keep pace with the Cardinals as San Fran sits at seventh in points-per-game this season. That will be important, if Kyler is able to take his foot off the gas, he’s not as valuable. Most importantly, the game is an Arizona, where Kyler has dominated in his young career, per our Trends tool:
Home/Road splits for Kyler Murray.
Salary is really the only concern with Kyler in this one. As long as he fits comfortably in your roster, he’s a smash play. That’s easier to do on FanDuel, where he’s only $100 more than the next most expensive quarterback. On DraftKings, that gap is $600. He leads the position on both sites in Median and Floor Projections.
Daniel Jones ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) New York Giants(+7) at Dallas Cowboys (52 total)
Jones has been quietly great as a fantasy player this season. He’s the QB5 in DraftKings scoring through four weeks. Much of that is due to his production on the ground, where he’s adding almost eight points per game. He’s been fine as a passer as well, his 8.2 yards per attempt is top-10 in the league. Jones is 25th in the league with only four passing touchdowns, which is a good thing — touchdowns are somewhat random. With some positive touchdown regression, he could be in for some big games.
This week is as good a time as any for Jones and the Giants. At 52 points, they have the highest Vegas total on the slate. The Cowboys defense is also producing the second-best Opponent Plus/Minus against quarterbacks among main-slate teams. This could all add up to a big day for Jones, whose Giants will be throwing a lot as seven-point underdogs.
This usually is where I’d include some splits on Jones as an underdog compared to Jones as a favorite. Unfortunately, Jones and the Giants have only been closed as favorites seven times in his young career (23 times as an underdog, both per our Trends tool). That’s not enough of a sample to draw significant conclusions.
Regardless, this year’s version of Daniel Jones is the best one we’ve seen yet. Fantasy sites haven’t quite caught on to that yet, so he’s consistently coming in underpriced and under-rostered. Take advantage of that while you still can, particularly in a solid matchup and game environment. Jones leads three of our Pro’s DraftKings models, where saving salary at quarterback is more important.
Ryan Tannehill ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) Tennessee Titans (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (48 total)
Tannehill was horrible last week without star wideouts Julio Jones and AJ Brown. He managed to back into an acceptable DraftKings score of 18.82, but it took him 49 passing attempts to get there. Both receivers are currently listed as questionable for Week 5, so be sure to follow our newsfeed before making any Tannehill decisions. My early expectation is that both will play, which will be the assumption for this week.
It’s a little curious that Tannehill’s salary rose on DraftKings this week. He was both disappointing, and not heavily rostered (.5%) last week. While it’s correct given the matchup and hopeful return of his top pass-catchers, I’m a bit surprised. He saw a slight dip on FanDuel, proving once again that DraftKings has sharper pricing.
Anyway, Tannehill is extremely appealing as a leverage play this week. Derrick Henry is sure to be popular again, and most rosters with Henry won’t have Tannehill. Not only are you getting an ownership discount, but you’re also jumping ahead of Henry rosters if touchdowns flow through Tannehill.
The matchup favors the passing game as well. Jacksonville ranks dead last in DVOA against the pass. They’re competent against the run, ranking 14th. This is getting more into guesswork territory, but I also expect noted poor decision-maker Urban Meyer (I’m not linking to the video, you know you saw it) to sell out to stop the run.
In today’s NFL, that’s a horrible way to play, but it feels like an Urban move to me. (This philosophy could also explain the differences in the Jags DVOA to date).
All of this adds up to Tannehill being a top tournament play, especially if he’s overlooked. He leads the Ryan Hodge Model on DraftKings but is also second in a number of FanDuel Models. Tannehill is firmly in play on both sites.
Trey Lance ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) San Francisco 49ers (+5) at Arizona Cardinals (50.5 total)
I’ve harped on this in relation to Mahomes, but anytime we have a super explosive quarterback on one side of the ball, his opponent deserves some consideration too. It makes sense because if Kyler and the Cardinals are lighting up the scoreboard, it means a faster game and more passing opportunities for Lance.
Our Correlation Dashboard backs this up. The single strongest correlation between players is between opposing quarterbacks. To put that another way, Kyler points are more likely to lead to Lance points, than they are to points for DeAndre Hopkins. Of course, we can’t stack opposing quarterbacks, but we can still use this to our advantage. We could stack Lance with one of his pass-catchers and Hopkins, for example. This is way cheaper than using Murray and has similar upside.
Strategy considerations out of the way, we can talk about the player. Lance made his much-anticipated debut (not counting a handful of plays in relief) last week. In just over half of the Niners’ snaps, he threw for two touchdowns on the way to 20.38 DraftKings points. With a full game of work ahead of him, the sky is the limit.
The Cardinals have been tough against the pass this year, ranking thied in DVOA, and are a bottom-five opponent Opponent Plus/Minus. However, they’ve yet to face a true rushing quarterback. Their pass-rush should flush Lance out of the pocket often, which will allow him to use his legs to rack up yardage.
Trey Lance this week is everything we hoped Justin Fields would be last week. He leads all quarterbacks in Pts/Sal on both sites. He also leads the Koerner model on DraftKings, where he should be considered in both cash and tournaments.
Other Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside
Tom Brady ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5) vs Miami Dolphins (47.5 total)
Brady is the only quarterback with a better Ceiling Projection than Kyler this week. Compared to the other players in his price range, his floor is low—ranking sixth. Our models suggest a wide range of outcomes for Brady. That makes sense because if the Bucs control this game early, TB12 might take a back seat to the Tampa running game.
His floor is also lowered by a total lack of involvement in the ground game. This all makes Brady a tournament-only option this week. While he has a better Bargain Rating on FanDuel, I prefer him on DraftKings, where the salary savings compared to Kyler are larger.
Jalen Hurts ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) Philadelphia Eagles (+4) at Carolina Panthers (45 total)
Hurts is officially in consideration every week, regardless of matchup or situation. His 26.8 average DraftKings points on the season trailing only Mahomes and Murray. This week, he’s facing a Carolina team that surrendered 27 points to Dak Prescott. Their defense is good but may have been overvalued based on their early-season schedule. However, Carolina is featuring the best adjusted sack rate in the league, which could be a good thing for Hurts.
My theory (which I’ve yet to test) is that high-pressure rates lead to more scrambles, which is a bonus with Hurts.
Sam Darnold ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) Carolina Panthers (-4) vs Philadelphia Eagles (45 total)
Across from Hurts, we have the NFL leader in rushing touchdowns. (I told myself I wasn’t going to mention that, since we all heard it 50 times on Sunday, but I couldn’t resist).
While I don’t think his touchdown rate is sustainable, Darnold is further evidence of the post-Gase bump. He’s the QB6 on the year, and even without Christian McCaffrey has been impressive. The Eagles have a bottom-10 defense, so there’s no reason he can’t get it done this week as well. CMC missing again might actually help Darnold, whose two best games have come with limited or no McCaffrey involvement.
Justin Herbert ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) Los Angeles Chargers (-1) vs. Cleveland Browns (48.5 total)
Herbert trails only Brady and Aaron Rodgers in Ceiling Projection on DraftKings this week. The Browns defense is a tough matchup, but they’re also a pass funnel — ranking 13th against the pass and first against the rush. They have a scary pass-rush, but Herbert benefits by having Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler to throw short passes to. Ekeler in particular frequently turns those into touchdowns. It’s not the best spot for Herbert (especially on a short week), but he has the talent and supporting cast to post big games matter the situation.
Jacoby Brissett ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) Miami Dolphins (+10.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (47.5)
Brisset may seem like a weird selection this week. However, the pick isn’t really on Brisset himself, so much as “quarterback against the Bucs.” Hopefully, the Dolphins will follow the same pass-heavy game plan the rest of the Bucs opponents have. It’s been pretty successful (at least from a fantasy standpoint) so far this season:
Quarterbacks against the Bucs through four weeks
Tampa lost another defensive back on Monday, which only helps the situation for Miami. Brisset’s salary and matchup make him worth considering here.
Photo Credit: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
Pictured: Daniel Jones
