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Week 5 Fantasy WR Breakdown: Robby Anderson, From the Valley to the Mountain

NFL-dfs-wide receivers-week 5

The Week 5 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 11, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models.

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Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 5 fantasy football rankings (as of Thursday evening).

  • Robby Anderson: No. 14 (PPR) | No. 14 (Half PPR) | No. 12 (Standard)
  • D.J. Moore: No. 15 (PPR) | No. 15 (Half PPR) | No. 17 (Standard)
  • Julian Edelman: No. 29 (PPR) | No. 29 (Half PPR) | No. 31 (Standard)
  • Michael Gallup: No. 35 (PPR) | No. 33 (Half PPR) | No. 30 (Standard)
  • Damiere Byrd: No. 59 (PPR) | No. 59 (Half PPR) | No. 57 (Standard)

Note on Patriots-Broncos: When I started writing this piece, the Patriots-Broncos game was scheduled for Sunday. Shortly after I finished the blurbs for Edelman and Byrd, the game was moved to Monday. For season-long and DFS showdown players, I’ve decided to leave their blurbs in the piece.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Robby Anderson: Carolina Panthers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons, 54 Over/Under

I admit it: Sometimes I send out a tweet just so I can embed it in an article. You got to stack that content.

Anderson has been fantastic this year. If we dig into and dissect his market share of targets, the extent to which he is dominating the Panthers offense becomes apparent (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary).

  • Weeks 1-4: 25%
  • Weeks 2-4: 26%
  • Weeks 3-4: 27%
  • Week 4: 31%

A 25% target share for the first month of the season is already good: That’s a top-12 mark among all wide receivers. But that number does not capture the momentum Anderson has: He is gaining more and more of the target market with each passing week.

As great a teammate D.J. Moore is, Anderson right now is not just the “1A” receiver within the offense: He’s the No. 1 guy.

In his four career-opening years with the Jets, Anderson was simplistically viewed as a perimeter deep threat, but reunited with former college head coach Matt Rhule — the guy who moved him from cornerback to wide receiver at Temple — and Anderson has now assumed a more complete role.

Anderson lines up both inside and outside. He runs routes at all levels of the field. He does it all.

And that is reflected in his 2020 performance.

  • Week 1 (vs. LV): 25.4 PPR, 19.4 STD | 6-114-1, eight targets
  • Week 2 (at TB): 17.9 PPR, 8.9 STD | 9-109-0, 10 targets
  • Week 3 (at LAC): 10.5 PPR, 5.5 STD | 5-55-0, five targets
  • Week 4 (vs. ARI): 17.9 PPR, 9.9 STD | 8-99-0, 11 targets

With this production, Anderson is a borderline WR1/2 with 18.5 PPR and 11.5 STD points per game (per RotoViz NFL Fantasy Summary).

That’s not a fluke. Anderson has the rock-solid peripheral numbers to support his production (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

With his 1.21 RACR and 0.61 WOPR, Anderson has the efficiency and opportunity to extend his Weeks 1-4 performance into Week 5 and beyond.

RACR and WOPR are stats created by Josh Hermsmeyer. RACR (Receiver Air Conversion Ratio) measures how efficiently a receiver turns air yards into receptions and yards after the catch. WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) combines target share and air-yard share.

If we look at some of the most granular numbers, Anderson stands out. He’s No. 4 among all wide receivers with 2.86 yards and No. 12 with 0.26 targets per route (per Pro Football Focus).

And he’s No. 10 with 129 AirYAC per game.

AirYAC is air yards plus yards after the catch: It’s a leading and simple-to-understand indicator of fantasy output.

In the 2016-19 wilderness years with the Jets, Anderson was a touchdown-dependent big-play flyer with upside in the mountains but downside in the valleys, and it was almost impossible — though incredibly important — to anticipate when he would score (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

With his boom/bust profile, Anderson with the Jets was a fantasy WR2 in just 15% of his games and no better than a WR3 in 71% of games.

That’s a lot of red. But with the Panthers, Anderson has been a WR2 in two games and a WR3 just once.

Anderson is no longer a boom/bust receiver. He’s now a high-floor/high-ceiling producer.

And maybe we should’ve seen this coming. Never forget that Anderson and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater spent six months together with the 2018 Jets.

Never underestimate the strength of the bonds of brotherhood forged between two men who fought alongside each other daily to survive an organization inflamed with chaos. Not all wars are militaristic.

This week, Anderson has a great matchup against the Falcons, who are No. 31 with a 25.4% pass-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders).

In Week 4, the Falcons had the good fortune to face the Packers without No. 1 wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring), but almost all the Nos. 1-2 receivers to go against the Falcons have done well.

  • Tyler Lockett (Week 1): 17.2 PPR, 9.2 STD | 8-92-0, eight targets
  • D.K. Metcalf (Week 1): 19.5 PPR, 15.5 STD | 4-95-1, eight targets
  • Amari Cooper (Week 2): 16.0 PPR, 10.0 STD | 6-100-0, nine targets
  • CeeDee Lamb (Week 2): 17.5 PPR, 11.5 STD | 6-106-0, nine targets | 1-9-0 rushing
  • Allen Robinson (Week 3): 28.3 PPR, 18.3 STD | 10-123-1, 13 targets
  • Anthony Miller (Week 3): 13.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 2-41-1, five targets | 1-9-0 rushing
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Week 4): 8.5 PPR, 4.5 STD | 4-45-0, eight targets

Under defense-focused head coach Dan Quinn, the Falcons have been unable to stop anybody.

For what it’s worth, I’m definitely betting against the Falcons this weekend: Underdogs are 33-18 against the spread (ATS) against Quinn’s team, good for a 25.5% return on investment (per our Bet Labs database).



Frankly, I can’t imagine living in the world and not betting against the 0-4 Falcons this weekend, especially given that Bridgewater is 19-5 ATS (54.9% ROI) as an underdog. You can bet on this game at DraftKings.

And it’s not as if the Falcons secondary is merely bad but totally healthy. The Falcons are dealing with some major injuries.

Perimeter corner A.J. Terrell (COVID-19) has missed the past two games and is uncertain for Week 5. Slot corner Darqueze Dennard (hamstring, IR) is out.

And the Falcons might be without their three top safeties. Ricardo Allen (elbow) was out for Weeks 3-4. Keanu Neal (hamstring) also missed Week 4. And Damontae Kazee (Achilles, IR) suffered a season-ending injury last week.

Anderson could have a massive performance against the Falcons.

An upside WR2 in season-long leagues, Anderson is a strong cash-game and tournament candidate in DFS.

He’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan and Raybon Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high +5.11 Projected Plus/Minus.

Salaries: $5,900 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel

D.J. Moore: Carolina Panthers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons, 54 O/U

I’m torn in three different directions: Which one do you prefer?

  • First sentence No. 1: Two Panthers wide receivers? In this economy???
  • First sentence No. 2: Another babka?
  • First sentence No. 3: T.J. Houshmandzadeh keeps living his best life.

You know what, it’s my piece, and I’m making the executive decision. We’re going with first sentence No. 3.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh keeps living his best life. This dude’s hair grows an inch each week Moore doesn’t score a touchdown.

Am I recycling that joke from last week’s wide receiver breakdown? Yes. When a joke is that mediocre, it must be written twice. Not written once and then copy-pasted. Actually written twice. I literally just typed that joke out again. Respect must be paid to the barely passable.

At a glance, Moore’s 2020 numbers don’t look great. There’s little sexy about 18-288-0 receiving.

But Moore will eventually find the end zone — I mean, he has to score a touchdown at some point, right? — and his current yardage extrapolates out to 1,152 yards, which isn’t far off the 1,175 he had last year (albeit in 15 games).

And Moore’s peripherals look good.

Moore hasn’t been efficient at turning his targets and air yards into receptions, yards after the catch and touchdowns. As a result, he has massively underwhelmed at producing fantasy points over expectation.

But we know Moore is better than his 2020 production to date. If you look at his past 16 games, Moore is 88-1,246-3 receiving on 141 targets. This guy can ball, and right now he’s a top-12 receiver with 32 targets, 403 air yards and a 0.64 WOPR.

By the way, Moore’s WOPR is actually higher than Anderson’s mark of 0.61.

One second ….

There we go. The points are coming. Be patient.

With his combination of target volume and air yards, Moore might still be his team’s No. 1 wide receiver. There’s at least a case to be made for it.

It’s concerning that Moore year over year is seeing fewer targets per game (9.0 vs. 8.0) and converting his targets to receptions at a lower rate (64.4% vs. 56.3%). And it’s painful that he’s not being used at all as a runner (19 carries 212 yards in 2018-19 vs. no carries in 2020).

Confounding is his Julio Jones-like ability to avoid the end zone.

But Moore still has 12.9 expected fantasy points receiving per game. Let’s not yet buy the dirt for his grave. I’m just assuming that people buy dirt for graves. I don’t know. I’m not a gravedigger. Plus, I don’t believe in death as a concept.

As noted above in the Robby Anderson analysis, the matchup with the Falcons is great. Their secondary is bad and also injured.

As anyone can tell you, 2020 ain’t 2019, but last year Moore did well against the divisional rival Falcons.

  • Week 11 (vs. ATL): 17.5 PPR, 9.5 STD | 8-95-0, 15 targets
  • Week 14 (at ATL): 12.1 PPR, 8.1 STD | 4-81-0, six targets

A WR2 with upside in season-long leagues, Moore is an option in all DFS formats, especially on DraftKings, where he has the No. 7 median and ceiling projections but the No. 16 wide receiver salary.

With a position-high eight Pro Trends, Moore is the top receiver in the Bales Model for DraftKings.

Salaries: $6,000 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel

Julian Edelman: New England Patriots (-8) vs. Broncos, Total Off Board

Patriots-Broncos is by no means a lock to play this weekend, but unlike Titans-Bills, this game has positive indicators (as of writing).

In Weeks 1-3 with quarterback Cam Newton (COVID-19), Edelman was 15-259-0 receiving on 24 targets and 2-22-0 rushing. He was No. 1 in the league with a 52% market share of his team’s air yards and No. 3 with a 0.77 WOPR.

In Week 4, though, with quarterbacks Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham, Edelman was just 3-35-0 receiving on six targets.

Before this season, Edelman (since his 2013 breakout) was markedly better with longtime quarterback Tom Brady than without him.

It’s not a surprise that Edelman underperformed with backup-level quarterback play last week, and it raises the question as to how he might play this week without Newton, who seems extremely unlikely to play.

What Edelman really has going for him this week (in addition to his elite usage) is his matchup: Opposing wide receiver units are No. 6 against the Broncos with 27.4 fantasy points per game with 67-794-5 receiving on 101 targets.

On top of that, No. 1 cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder, IR) is out, and in his absence, the Broncos have shifted Bryce Callahan to the perimeter and moved undrafted rookie Essang Bassey from the sideline to the slot.

Bassey has a 47.2 PFF coverage grade and has allowed 8.6 yards per target with an 85.7% completion rate. Edelman is likely to run most of his routes against Bassey this week.

Last week, Jets slot receiver Jamison Crowder went off against the Broncos with 7-104-0 receiving on 10 targets. The week before that, Buccaneers slot receiver Chris Godwin was 5-64-1 receiving on six targets against the Broncos before leaving early with an injury.

Future generations die when we eat our young, know what I’m saying?

COVID-19 complications aside, I’m looking to bet the Pats. Since 2004 (as far back as our database goes), Patriots HC Bill Belichick after a loss is an A-graded 41-15 ATS (45.2% ROI).



This is a bounceback spot for the Pats and also for Edelman. You can bet on this game at FanDuel.

A season-long WR3 with volume-fueled WR2 upside, Edelman is a contrarian tournament play in DFS.

He’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales and Freedman Models for FanDuel.

Salaries: $5,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel

Michael Gallup: Dallas Cowboys (-9) vs. New York Giants, 54 O/U

Over his past 16 games, Gallup is 66-1156-7 receiving on 121 targets. He’s a legitimately good receiver. But he has been inconsistent over that span.

This season in particular he has been difficult to trust on a weekly basis because he’s playing behind teammates Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb and being targeted on low-percentage targets with a high average depth of target (aDOT).

  • Amari Cooper: 26% target share | 72.5% catch rate | 9.8-yard aDOT
  • CeeDee Lamb: 14% target share | 72.4% catch rate | 10.0-yard aDOT
  • Michael Gallup: 12% target share | 54.2% catch rate | 17.6-yard aDOT

After going off in Week 3 with 6-138-1 receiving on nine targets, last week he was just 2-29-0 on five targets for his worst game of the season. That’s the kind of volatility we’re dealing with.

But the gap between Lamb and Gallup is not nearly as big as many fantasy investors seem to think.

  • CeeDee Lamb (four games): 21-309-2, 28 targets | 0.33 WOPR
  • Michael Gallup (four games): 13-275-1, 24 targets | 0.36 WOPR

Lamb is more efficient at turning his targets into catches, so he’s the more reliable and desirable fantasy option, especially in leagues that award points for receptions, but Gallup has actually been more efficient at turning his targets into yards (11.5 vs. 11.0), and their similar WOPRs suggest the extent to which they have comparable value to the Cowboys offense.

And it’s that offense that really gives Gallup his value. The Cowboys passing attack is No. 1 in the league with 203 attempts, 137 completions and 1,690 yards.

Passing production abounds.

And it helps that the Cowboys are playing fast: They’re No. 1 at 19.95 seconds per play.

I want to be invested in as many pass catchers as possible in this offense, and Gallup leads all Cowboys wide receivers with his 88.4% snap rate.

I expect that No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry will shadow Cooper for much of the game, which means that Gallup will match up most with cornerback Ryan Lewis, an undrafted four-year journeyman special-teamer who has allowed 8.5 yards per target for his career and never had a PFF coverage grade higher than 58.9 in any season.

Just last week was Lewis’ first game with the Giants as the primary perimeter corner opposite Bradberry.

I mean, come on.

In season-long leagues, Gallup is a WR3 with the ability to sublimate into a low-end WR1 in any game. In DFS, he’s an alluring tournament play given the extent to which he has been ignored by the market.

In the Week 4 Millionaire Maker, Gallup was the least-stacked of the three Cowboys wide receivers (per our FantasyLabs Contests Dashboard).

  • Dak Prescott-Amari Cooper: 3.91% exposure rate
  • Dak Prescott-CeeDee Lamb: 2.78% exposure rate
  • Dak Prescott-Michael Gallup: 1.38% exposure rate

Gallup is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88, SportsGeek and Koerner Models for FanDuel.

Salaries: $5,400 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel

Damiere Byrd: New England Patriots (-8) vs. Broncos, Total Off Board

This is the third straight week that Byrd has topped some of our Models.

If you are in a deep league and desperate for a wide receiver available on waivers …

If you are looking for a min-priced punt play in DFS …

If you are fine knowing that you could get literally zero fantasy points from a player …

Then Byrd might be your man.

I like my life, so I’m extremely unlikely to roster Byrd, but I can see the case for him, because he’s a locked-in starter. Although he had zero targets in Week 1, he is 14-179-0 receiving on 22 targets over the past three weeks.

That’s actually good.

For the season, he has played a snap rate of 91.8% and run a route on 97.2% of the team’s drop backs. Those are elite numbers.

At a minimum, we can say this about Byrd: He will be on the field and in position to get targets. We just have to hope that he gets them and that they’re accurate.

In that regard, he’s actually very similar to teammate N’Keal Harry, who has failed to separate himself from Byrd in any meaningful way.

  • N’Keal Harry (four games): 18-166-1, 28 targets | 170 air yards | 0.47 WOPR
  • Damiere Byrd (four games): 14-179-0, 22 targets | 253 air yards | 0.47 WOPR

If you have any feelings of positivity for Harry, you should probably have similar feelings for Byrd. He’s Harry arbitrage: #Harbitrage.

As noted above in the Julian Edelman analysis, the matchup against the Broncos is advantageous.

With a handful of targets and a couple deep shots, Byrd could surprise, just as he did in Weeks 2 & 4 with 6-72-0 and 5-80-0 receiving.

As far as flyers go, Byrd at least has wings: He’s the No. 1 wide receiver in Hermsmeyer’s Week 5 Air Yards Buy-Low Model.

He’s a deep play in season-long leagues and a tournament option likely to have a sub-5% exposure rate in DFS.

Byrd is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +5.37 Projected Plus/Minus.

Salaries: $3,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel

Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some of the wide receivers I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals (-7) at New York Jets, 47 O/U: With an NFL-high 39 receptions, Hopkins has position-high median, ceiling and floor projections in our Models. He might have the week’s best WR/CB matchup against “The Other Lamar Jackson,” an undrafted rookie injury fill-in. Salaries: $8,500 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) vs. Carolina Panthers, 54 O/U: Even with his zero catches on five targets last week, Ridley is No. 1 in the league with 182.3 AirYAC per game. Ridley (thigh/knee) practiced on Thursday and could have amplified target volume this week without teammate Julio Jones (hamstring). Salaries: $7,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel

Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys (-9) vs. New York Giants, 54 O/U: No. 1 at the position with 21.3 expected fantasy points receiving, Cooper has sky-high upside. Since joining the Cowboys, Cooper is the No. 1 receiver in the league as a home favorite (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

Salaries: $7,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 55 O/U: Yet to have a truly spectacular game in 2020, Hill still has 320 yards and four touchdowns from scrimmage. Hill has a highly advantageous matchup against cornerback Lamarcus Joyner, who has allowed a 74.5% catch rate since the Raiders moved him from safety to the slot last year. Salaries: $6,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel

Will Fuller, Houston Texans (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 54 O/U: Even though he had zero targets in Week 2, Fuller is still 18-274-2 receiving with either 100 yards or a touchdown in three games. The Jags are dead last with a 43.5% pass-defense DVOA, and there’s absolutely no chance Fuller will disappoint in this spot, right?

Salaries: $6,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Washington Football Team, 46.5 O/U: No. 3 with a 1.75 RACR, Kupp is one of the position’s most efficient players at turning air yards into receptions and yards after the catch. The Footballers are now starting seventh-round rookie free safety Kamren Curl as their slot corner after former starters Fabian Moreau and Jimmy Moreland were benched in Week 4. Salaries: $6,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens (-12) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 51 O/U: I’m slightly pessimistic about the Ravens, given that road underdogs are 10-4 ATS (38.3% ROI) against quarterback Lamar Jackson. (You can bet on this game at William Hill.)



But with Mackensie Alexander (hamstring) uncertain to play, Hollywood might have an elite matchup against injury fill-in LeShaun Sims, who last week allowed 8-107-1 receiving on 10 targets. Salaries: $6,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (+7.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams, 46.5 O/U: The shadow matchup with Ramsey is as tough as it gets, but McLaurin is No. 4 in the league with 148.8 AirYAC per game. The +6500 ticket on McLaurin to lead the league in receiving is looking pretty good right now. Salaries: $6,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins (+9) at San Francisco, 51.5 O/U: Coming off a 10-110-0 receiving performance on 12 targets, Parker is finally in form after dealing with a hamstring injury early in the year. The 49ers seem likely to be without starting cornerbacks Richard Sherman (calf, IR), Emmanuel Moseley (concussion) and K’Waun Williams (knee/hip). Salaries: $5,900 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets (+7) vs. Arizona Cardinals, 47 O/U: As long as Crowder has quarterback Sam Darnold, he’ll be fine. Since joining the Jets last year, Jamison has had extreme splits with Darnold.

Now let’s really start to dig into this game and see what’s going on. Looking. Looking. You know what? Ignore everything I just said. Salaries: $5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 46.5 O/U: Before suffering an injury in Week 3, Johnson (concussion/toe) was No. 4 at the position with a 32% market share of targets in Weeks 1-2. He has been inconsistent throughout his career …

… but Johnson is No. 9 in Hayden Winks’ Week 5 Fantasy Usage WR Model. Salaries: $5,600 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

Darius Slayton, New York Giants (+9) at Dallas Cowboys, 54 O/U: A boom/bust receiver, Slayton is 58-881-10 receiving over his past 16 games. The Cowboys have allowed seven WR1/2 performances this year, the second-highest mark in the league.

Salaries: $4,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

Zach Pascal, Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Cleveland Browns, 46.5 O/U: Here’s a tweet.

That’s pretty much it. Salaries: $4,600 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel

Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 55 O/U: This season, the difference between Tyreek Hill and Watkins in targets per game (7.2 vs. 6.8) and expected fantasy points receiving per game (11.9  vs. 11.6) is negligible. The Raiders are No. 31 with a 40.4 PFF coverage grade. Salaries: $4,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel

Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) vs. Houston Texans, 54 O/U: I will probably have Shenault in this section all year long, and I don’t apologize. He has a delicious matchup against cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III, who has a 40.7 PFF coverage grade this year after putting up a 43.3 mark last year. Salaries: $4,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel.

Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 55 O/U: In Week 4, Hardman ran more routes than No. 3 wide receiver Demarcus Robinson (19 vs. 15), and he is 8-108-2 receiving on 10 targets over the past two games. The Chiefs have a slate-high 34-point implied Vegas total. Salaries: $4,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel



Matthew Freedman is 648-519-26 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Robby Anderson
Photo credit: Grant Halverson/Getty Images

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The Week 5 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 11, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 5 fantasy football rankings (as of Thursday evening).

  • Robby Anderson: No. 14 (PPR) | No. 14 (Half PPR) | No. 12 (Standard)
  • D.J. Moore: No. 15 (PPR) | No. 15 (Half PPR) | No. 17 (Standard)
  • Julian Edelman: No. 29 (PPR) | No. 29 (Half PPR) | No. 31 (Standard)
  • Michael Gallup: No. 35 (PPR) | No. 33 (Half PPR) | No. 30 (Standard)
  • Damiere Byrd: No. 59 (PPR) | No. 59 (Half PPR) | No. 57 (Standard)

Note on Patriots-Broncos: When I started writing this piece, the Patriots-Broncos game was scheduled for Sunday. Shortly after I finished the blurbs for Edelman and Byrd, the game was moved to Monday. For season-long and DFS showdown players, I’ve decided to leave their blurbs in the piece.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Robby Anderson: Carolina Panthers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons, 54 Over/Under

I admit it: Sometimes I send out a tweet just so I can embed it in an article. You got to stack that content.

Anderson has been fantastic this year. If we dig into and dissect his market share of targets, the extent to which he is dominating the Panthers offense becomes apparent (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary).

  • Weeks 1-4: 25%
  • Weeks 2-4: 26%
  • Weeks 3-4: 27%
  • Week 4: 31%

A 25% target share for the first month of the season is already good: That’s a top-12 mark among all wide receivers. But that number does not capture the momentum Anderson has: He is gaining more and more of the target market with each passing week.

As great a teammate D.J. Moore is, Anderson right now is not just the “1A” receiver within the offense: He’s the No. 1 guy.

In his four career-opening years with the Jets, Anderson was simplistically viewed as a perimeter deep threat, but reunited with former college head coach Matt Rhule — the guy who moved him from cornerback to wide receiver at Temple — and Anderson has now assumed a more complete role.

Anderson lines up both inside and outside. He runs routes at all levels of the field. He does it all.

And that is reflected in his 2020 performance.

  • Week 1 (vs. LV): 25.4 PPR, 19.4 STD | 6-114-1, eight targets
  • Week 2 (at TB): 17.9 PPR, 8.9 STD | 9-109-0, 10 targets
  • Week 3 (at LAC): 10.5 PPR, 5.5 STD | 5-55-0, five targets
  • Week 4 (vs. ARI): 17.9 PPR, 9.9 STD | 8-99-0, 11 targets

With this production, Anderson is a borderline WR1/2 with 18.5 PPR and 11.5 STD points per game (per RotoViz NFL Fantasy Summary).

That’s not a fluke. Anderson has the rock-solid peripheral numbers to support his production (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

With his 1.21 RACR and 0.61 WOPR, Anderson has the efficiency and opportunity to extend his Weeks 1-4 performance into Week 5 and beyond.

RACR and WOPR are stats created by Josh Hermsmeyer. RACR (Receiver Air Conversion Ratio) measures how efficiently a receiver turns air yards into receptions and yards after the catch. WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) combines target share and air-yard share.

If we look at some of the most granular numbers, Anderson stands out. He’s No. 4 among all wide receivers with 2.86 yards and No. 12 with 0.26 targets per route (per Pro Football Focus).

And he’s No. 10 with 129 AirYAC per game.

AirYAC is air yards plus yards after the catch: It’s a leading and simple-to-understand indicator of fantasy output.

In the 2016-19 wilderness years with the Jets, Anderson was a touchdown-dependent big-play flyer with upside in the mountains but downside in the valleys, and it was almost impossible — though incredibly important — to anticipate when he would score (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

With his boom/bust profile, Anderson with the Jets was a fantasy WR2 in just 15% of his games and no better than a WR3 in 71% of games.

That’s a lot of red. But with the Panthers, Anderson has been a WR2 in two games and a WR3 just once.

Anderson is no longer a boom/bust receiver. He’s now a high-floor/high-ceiling producer.

And maybe we should’ve seen this coming. Never forget that Anderson and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater spent six months together with the 2018 Jets.

Never underestimate the strength of the bonds of brotherhood forged between two men who fought alongside each other daily to survive an organization inflamed with chaos. Not all wars are militaristic.

This week, Anderson has a great matchup against the Falcons, who are No. 31 with a 25.4% pass-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders).

In Week 4, the Falcons had the good fortune to face the Packers without No. 1 wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring), but almost all the Nos. 1-2 receivers to go against the Falcons have done well.

  • Tyler Lockett (Week 1): 17.2 PPR, 9.2 STD | 8-92-0, eight targets
  • D.K. Metcalf (Week 1): 19.5 PPR, 15.5 STD | 4-95-1, eight targets
  • Amari Cooper (Week 2): 16.0 PPR, 10.0 STD | 6-100-0, nine targets
  • CeeDee Lamb (Week 2): 17.5 PPR, 11.5 STD | 6-106-0, nine targets | 1-9-0 rushing
  • Allen Robinson (Week 3): 28.3 PPR, 18.3 STD | 10-123-1, 13 targets
  • Anthony Miller (Week 3): 13.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 2-41-1, five targets | 1-9-0 rushing
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Week 4): 8.5 PPR, 4.5 STD | 4-45-0, eight targets

Under defense-focused head coach Dan Quinn, the Falcons have been unable to stop anybody.

For what it’s worth, I’m definitely betting against the Falcons this weekend: Underdogs are 33-18 against the spread (ATS) against Quinn’s team, good for a 25.5% return on investment (per our Bet Labs database).



Frankly, I can’t imagine living in the world and not betting against the 0-4 Falcons this weekend, especially given that Bridgewater is 19-5 ATS (54.9% ROI) as an underdog. You can bet on this game at DraftKings.

And it’s not as if the Falcons secondary is merely bad but totally healthy. The Falcons are dealing with some major injuries.

Perimeter corner A.J. Terrell (COVID-19) has missed the past two games and is uncertain for Week 5. Slot corner Darqueze Dennard (hamstring, IR) is out.

And the Falcons might be without their three top safeties. Ricardo Allen (elbow) was out for Weeks 3-4. Keanu Neal (hamstring) also missed Week 4. And Damontae Kazee (Achilles, IR) suffered a season-ending injury last week.

Anderson could have a massive performance against the Falcons.

An upside WR2 in season-long leagues, Anderson is a strong cash-game and tournament candidate in DFS.

He’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan and Raybon Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high +5.11 Projected Plus/Minus.

Salaries: $5,900 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel

D.J. Moore: Carolina Panthers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons, 54 O/U

I’m torn in three different directions: Which one do you prefer?

  • First sentence No. 1: Two Panthers wide receivers? In this economy???
  • First sentence No. 2: Another babka?
  • First sentence No. 3: T.J. Houshmandzadeh keeps living his best life.

You know what, it’s my piece, and I’m making the executive decision. We’re going with first sentence No. 3.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh keeps living his best life. This dude’s hair grows an inch each week Moore doesn’t score a touchdown.

Am I recycling that joke from last week’s wide receiver breakdown? Yes. When a joke is that mediocre, it must be written twice. Not written once and then copy-pasted. Actually written twice. I literally just typed that joke out again. Respect must be paid to the barely passable.

At a glance, Moore’s 2020 numbers don’t look great. There’s little sexy about 18-288-0 receiving.

But Moore will eventually find the end zone — I mean, he has to score a touchdown at some point, right? — and his current yardage extrapolates out to 1,152 yards, which isn’t far off the 1,175 he had last year (albeit in 15 games).

And Moore’s peripherals look good.

Moore hasn’t been efficient at turning his targets and air yards into receptions, yards after the catch and touchdowns. As a result, he has massively underwhelmed at producing fantasy points over expectation.

But we know Moore is better than his 2020 production to date. If you look at his past 16 games, Moore is 88-1,246-3 receiving on 141 targets. This guy can ball, and right now he’s a top-12 receiver with 32 targets, 403 air yards and a 0.64 WOPR.

By the way, Moore’s WOPR is actually higher than Anderson’s mark of 0.61.

One second ….

There we go. The points are coming. Be patient.

With his combination of target volume and air yards, Moore might still be his team’s No. 1 wide receiver. There’s at least a case to be made for it.

It’s concerning that Moore year over year is seeing fewer targets per game (9.0 vs. 8.0) and converting his targets to receptions at a lower rate (64.4% vs. 56.3%). And it’s painful that he’s not being used at all as a runner (19 carries 212 yards in 2018-19 vs. no carries in 2020).

Confounding is his Julio Jones-like ability to avoid the end zone.

But Moore still has 12.9 expected fantasy points receiving per game. Let’s not yet buy the dirt for his grave. I’m just assuming that people buy dirt for graves. I don’t know. I’m not a gravedigger. Plus, I don’t believe in death as a concept.

As noted above in the Robby Anderson analysis, the matchup with the Falcons is great. Their secondary is bad and also injured.

As anyone can tell you, 2020 ain’t 2019, but last year Moore did well against the divisional rival Falcons.

  • Week 11 (vs. ATL): 17.5 PPR, 9.5 STD | 8-95-0, 15 targets
  • Week 14 (at ATL): 12.1 PPR, 8.1 STD | 4-81-0, six targets

A WR2 with upside in season-long leagues, Moore is an option in all DFS formats, especially on DraftKings, where he has the No. 7 median and ceiling projections but the No. 16 wide receiver salary.

With a position-high eight Pro Trends, Moore is the top receiver in the Bales Model for DraftKings.

Salaries: $6,000 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel

Julian Edelman: New England Patriots (-8) vs. Broncos, Total Off Board

Patriots-Broncos is by no means a lock to play this weekend, but unlike Titans-Bills, this game has positive indicators (as of writing).

In Weeks 1-3 with quarterback Cam Newton (COVID-19), Edelman was 15-259-0 receiving on 24 targets and 2-22-0 rushing. He was No. 1 in the league with a 52% market share of his team’s air yards and No. 3 with a 0.77 WOPR.

In Week 4, though, with quarterbacks Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham, Edelman was just 3-35-0 receiving on six targets.

Before this season, Edelman (since his 2013 breakout) was markedly better with longtime quarterback Tom Brady than without him.

It’s not a surprise that Edelman underperformed with backup-level quarterback play last week, and it raises the question as to how he might play this week without Newton, who seems extremely unlikely to play.

What Edelman really has going for him this week (in addition to his elite usage) is his matchup: Opposing wide receiver units are No. 6 against the Broncos with 27.4 fantasy points per game with 67-794-5 receiving on 101 targets.

On top of that, No. 1 cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder, IR) is out, and in his absence, the Broncos have shifted Bryce Callahan to the perimeter and moved undrafted rookie Essang Bassey from the sideline to the slot.

Bassey has a 47.2 PFF coverage grade and has allowed 8.6 yards per target with an 85.7% completion rate. Edelman is likely to run most of his routes against Bassey this week.

Last week, Jets slot receiver Jamison Crowder went off against the Broncos with 7-104-0 receiving on 10 targets. The week before that, Buccaneers slot receiver Chris Godwin was 5-64-1 receiving on six targets against the Broncos before leaving early with an injury.

Future generations die when we eat our young, know what I’m saying?

COVID-19 complications aside, I’m looking to bet the Pats. Since 2004 (as far back as our database goes), Patriots HC Bill Belichick after a loss is an A-graded 41-15 ATS (45.2% ROI).



This is a bounceback spot for the Pats and also for Edelman. You can bet on this game at FanDuel.

A season-long WR3 with volume-fueled WR2 upside, Edelman is a contrarian tournament play in DFS.

He’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales and Freedman Models for FanDuel.

Salaries: $5,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel

Michael Gallup: Dallas Cowboys (-9) vs. New York Giants, 54 O/U

Over his past 16 games, Gallup is 66-1156-7 receiving on 121 targets. He’s a legitimately good receiver. But he has been inconsistent over that span.

This season in particular he has been difficult to trust on a weekly basis because he’s playing behind teammates Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb and being targeted on low-percentage targets with a high average depth of target (aDOT).

  • Amari Cooper: 26% target share | 72.5% catch rate | 9.8-yard aDOT
  • CeeDee Lamb: 14% target share | 72.4% catch rate | 10.0-yard aDOT
  • Michael Gallup: 12% target share | 54.2% catch rate | 17.6-yard aDOT

After going off in Week 3 with 6-138-1 receiving on nine targets, last week he was just 2-29-0 on five targets for his worst game of the season. That’s the kind of volatility we’re dealing with.

But the gap between Lamb and Gallup is not nearly as big as many fantasy investors seem to think.

  • CeeDee Lamb (four games): 21-309-2, 28 targets | 0.33 WOPR
  • Michael Gallup (four games): 13-275-1, 24 targets | 0.36 WOPR

Lamb is more efficient at turning his targets into catches, so he’s the more reliable and desirable fantasy option, especially in leagues that award points for receptions, but Gallup has actually been more efficient at turning his targets into yards (11.5 vs. 11.0), and their similar WOPRs suggest the extent to which they have comparable value to the Cowboys offense.

And it’s that offense that really gives Gallup his value. The Cowboys passing attack is No. 1 in the league with 203 attempts, 137 completions and 1,690 yards.

Passing production abounds.

And it helps that the Cowboys are playing fast: They’re No. 1 at 19.95 seconds per play.

I want to be invested in as many pass catchers as possible in this offense, and Gallup leads all Cowboys wide receivers with his 88.4% snap rate.

I expect that No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry will shadow Cooper for much of the game, which means that Gallup will match up most with cornerback Ryan Lewis, an undrafted four-year journeyman special-teamer who has allowed 8.5 yards per target for his career and never had a PFF coverage grade higher than 58.9 in any season.

Just last week was Lewis’ first game with the Giants as the primary perimeter corner opposite Bradberry.

I mean, come on.

In season-long leagues, Gallup is a WR3 with the ability to sublimate into a low-end WR1 in any game. In DFS, he’s an alluring tournament play given the extent to which he has been ignored by the market.

In the Week 4 Millionaire Maker, Gallup was the least-stacked of the three Cowboys wide receivers (per our FantasyLabs Contests Dashboard).

  • Dak Prescott-Amari Cooper: 3.91% exposure rate
  • Dak Prescott-CeeDee Lamb: 2.78% exposure rate
  • Dak Prescott-Michael Gallup: 1.38% exposure rate

Gallup is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88, SportsGeek and Koerner Models for FanDuel.

Salaries: $5,400 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel

Damiere Byrd: New England Patriots (-8) vs. Broncos, Total Off Board

This is the third straight week that Byrd has topped some of our Models.

If you are in a deep league and desperate for a wide receiver available on waivers …

If you are looking for a min-priced punt play in DFS …

If you are fine knowing that you could get literally zero fantasy points from a player …

Then Byrd might be your man.

I like my life, so I’m extremely unlikely to roster Byrd, but I can see the case for him, because he’s a locked-in starter. Although he had zero targets in Week 1, he is 14-179-0 receiving on 22 targets over the past three weeks.

That’s actually good.

For the season, he has played a snap rate of 91.8% and run a route on 97.2% of the team’s drop backs. Those are elite numbers.

At a minimum, we can say this about Byrd: He will be on the field and in position to get targets. We just have to hope that he gets them and that they’re accurate.

In that regard, he’s actually very similar to teammate N’Keal Harry, who has failed to separate himself from Byrd in any meaningful way.

  • N’Keal Harry (four games): 18-166-1, 28 targets | 170 air yards | 0.47 WOPR
  • Damiere Byrd (four games): 14-179-0, 22 targets | 253 air yards | 0.47 WOPR

If you have any feelings of positivity for Harry, you should probably have similar feelings for Byrd. He’s Harry arbitrage: #Harbitrage.

As noted above in the Julian Edelman analysis, the matchup against the Broncos is advantageous.

With a handful of targets and a couple deep shots, Byrd could surprise, just as he did in Weeks 2 & 4 with 6-72-0 and 5-80-0 receiving.

As far as flyers go, Byrd at least has wings: He’s the No. 1 wide receiver in Hermsmeyer’s Week 5 Air Yards Buy-Low Model.

He’s a deep play in season-long leagues and a tournament option likely to have a sub-5% exposure rate in DFS.

Byrd is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +5.37 Projected Plus/Minus.

Salaries: $3,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel

Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some of the wide receivers I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals (-7) at New York Jets, 47 O/U: With an NFL-high 39 receptions, Hopkins has position-high median, ceiling and floor projections in our Models. He might have the week’s best WR/CB matchup against “The Other Lamar Jackson,” an undrafted rookie injury fill-in. Salaries: $8,500 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) vs. Carolina Panthers, 54 O/U: Even with his zero catches on five targets last week, Ridley is No. 1 in the league with 182.3 AirYAC per game. Ridley (thigh/knee) practiced on Thursday and could have amplified target volume this week without teammate Julio Jones (hamstring). Salaries: $7,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel

Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys (-9) vs. New York Giants, 54 O/U: No. 1 at the position with 21.3 expected fantasy points receiving, Cooper has sky-high upside. Since joining the Cowboys, Cooper is the No. 1 receiver in the league as a home favorite (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

Salaries: $7,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 55 O/U: Yet to have a truly spectacular game in 2020, Hill still has 320 yards and four touchdowns from scrimmage. Hill has a highly advantageous matchup against cornerback Lamarcus Joyner, who has allowed a 74.5% catch rate since the Raiders moved him from safety to the slot last year. Salaries: $6,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel

Will Fuller, Houston Texans (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 54 O/U: Even though he had zero targets in Week 2, Fuller is still 18-274-2 receiving with either 100 yards or a touchdown in three games. The Jags are dead last with a 43.5% pass-defense DVOA, and there’s absolutely no chance Fuller will disappoint in this spot, right?

Salaries: $6,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Washington Football Team, 46.5 O/U: No. 3 with a 1.75 RACR, Kupp is one of the position’s most efficient players at turning air yards into receptions and yards after the catch. The Footballers are now starting seventh-round rookie free safety Kamren Curl as their slot corner after former starters Fabian Moreau and Jimmy Moreland were benched in Week 4. Salaries: $6,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens (-12) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 51 O/U: I’m slightly pessimistic about the Ravens, given that road underdogs are 10-4 ATS (38.3% ROI) against quarterback Lamar Jackson. (You can bet on this game at William Hill.)



But with Mackensie Alexander (hamstring) uncertain to play, Hollywood might have an elite matchup against injury fill-in LeShaun Sims, who last week allowed 8-107-1 receiving on 10 targets. Salaries: $6,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (+7.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams, 46.5 O/U: The shadow matchup with Ramsey is as tough as it gets, but McLaurin is No. 4 in the league with 148.8 AirYAC per game. The +6500 ticket on McLaurin to lead the league in receiving is looking pretty good right now. Salaries: $6,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins (+9) at San Francisco, 51.5 O/U: Coming off a 10-110-0 receiving performance on 12 targets, Parker is finally in form after dealing with a hamstring injury early in the year. The 49ers seem likely to be without starting cornerbacks Richard Sherman (calf, IR), Emmanuel Moseley (concussion) and K’Waun Williams (knee/hip). Salaries: $5,900 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets (+7) vs. Arizona Cardinals, 47 O/U: As long as Crowder has quarterback Sam Darnold, he’ll be fine. Since joining the Jets last year, Jamison has had extreme splits with Darnold.

Now let’s really start to dig into this game and see what’s going on. Looking. Looking. You know what? Ignore everything I just said. Salaries: $5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 46.5 O/U: Before suffering an injury in Week 3, Johnson (concussion/toe) was No. 4 at the position with a 32% market share of targets in Weeks 1-2. He has been inconsistent throughout his career …

… but Johnson is No. 9 in Hayden Winks’ Week 5 Fantasy Usage WR Model. Salaries: $5,600 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

Darius Slayton, New York Giants (+9) at Dallas Cowboys, 54 O/U: A boom/bust receiver, Slayton is 58-881-10 receiving over his past 16 games. The Cowboys have allowed seven WR1/2 performances this year, the second-highest mark in the league.

Salaries: $4,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

Zach Pascal, Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Cleveland Browns, 46.5 O/U: Here’s a tweet.

That’s pretty much it. Salaries: $4,600 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel

Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 55 O/U: This season, the difference between Tyreek Hill and Watkins in targets per game (7.2 vs. 6.8) and expected fantasy points receiving per game (11.9  vs. 11.6) is negligible. The Raiders are No. 31 with a 40.4 PFF coverage grade. Salaries: $4,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel

Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) vs. Houston Texans, 54 O/U: I will probably have Shenault in this section all year long, and I don’t apologize. He has a delicious matchup against cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III, who has a 40.7 PFF coverage grade this year after putting up a 43.3 mark last year. Salaries: $4,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel.

Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 55 O/U: In Week 4, Hardman ran more routes than No. 3 wide receiver Demarcus Robinson (19 vs. 15), and he is 8-108-2 receiving on 10 targets over the past two games. The Chiefs have a slate-high 34-point implied Vegas total. Salaries: $4,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel



Matthew Freedman is 648-519-26 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Robby Anderson
Photo credit: Grant Halverson/Getty Images

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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.