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Week 5 Fantasy QB Breakdown: Enter the Twilight Zone With Daniel Jones

The Week 5 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 11, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight the quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 5 fantasy football rankings (as of Wednesday morning).

  • Josh Allen: No. 4
  • Lamar Jackson: No. 5
  • Deshaun Watson: No. 7
  • Matt Ryan: No. 8
  • Daniel Jones: No. 15

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Josh Allen: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans, Off the Board

The NFL postponed the Titans game last week because of a COVID-19 outbreak on the team, but this week’s game is still scheduled to play.

If the football gods are merciful, we will see Allen play this weekend.

Through the first month of the season, Allen has been the No. 2 fantasy quarterback, scoring no fewer than three total touchdowns in each game.

  • Week 1 (vs. NYJ): 28.2 fantasy points | 312-2-0 passing | 14-57-1 rushing
  • Week 2 (at MIA): 34.5 fantasy points | 415-4-0 passing | 4-19-0 rushing
  • Week 3 (vs. LAR): 31.2 fantasy points | 311-4-0 passing | 4-8-1 rushing
  • Week 4 (at LV): 25.4 fantasy points | 288-2-0 passing | 3-minus 1-1 rushing

Allen has an elite 10.3 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), partially because his completion rate has jumped up to 70.9%.

We’re talking about a guy who had a completion rate of just 49.0% at Reedley Community College in 2014: I unfavorably compared him to Jake Locker before the 2018 draft.

And in his first two NFL seasons, he looked like Locker, completing just 56.3% of his passes.

This year, though, with the offseason addition of No. 1 wide receiver Stefon Diggs, Allen has elevated himself to an MVP-caliber level. And it’s not as if his performance has come from nowhere. Unlikely though it was, it was also imaginable. Foreseeable.

Despite his struggles, Allen has always been a strong fantasy producer. After returning to action from an elbow injury that sidelined him for over a month, Allen was the No. 2 fantasy quarterback with 26.6 points per game for the final six weeks of his rookie campaign (per RotoViz NFL Fantasy Summary).

In his second season, Allen had only one game in which he finished as anything less than a fantasy QB2 — and that was against the Ravens and their top-tier pass defense (excluding his partial Week 17, per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

Allen and the Bills have been steadily building to this brilliant 2020 season for the past two years. What we’ve seen out of Allen in Weeks 1-4 is representative of who he is now as a player.

What makes Allen so investable in fantasy is his Konami Code rushing ability and specifically his goal-line usage, and although he has not run this year as much as he did last year, he’s still running enough and getting the carries that matter (per game, per Player Profiler).

  • 2019 (16 games): 6.8 carries (No. 2) | 1.4 red-zone carries (No. 2)
  • 2020 (four games): 6.2 carries (No. 4) | 1.8 red-zone carries (No. 2)

As great as so many other quarterbacks have been in this season of inflated scoring, Allen is No. 1 at the position with 0.78 fantasy points per drop back (per Pro Football Focus).

Yo, Nelly Furtado, that’s a spicy meatball. (Note to editor: Don’t you dare cut this out.)

Because of their COVID-19 situation, the Titans have been unable to practice or access their facilities in over a week. On top of that, they are without No. 1 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (knee, IR) and perhaps slot cornerback Chris Jackson (hamstring), who missed Week 3.

The Titans aren’t bad against the pass, ranking No. 11 with a 61.0 PFF coverage grade, but given the circumstances, they’re unlikely to present much of a problem to Allen.

Additionally, Allen is hitting the sweet spot of his career splits (I’m assuming the Bills will be favored). Since he entered the league in 2018, no quarterback has exceeded expectations as a road favorite more than Allen (excluding players with just a couple such starts, per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

Whenever this game hits the board, I will almost certainly bet on the Bills. Bookmakers won’t be able to hang too high of a line because the Titans are 3-0, at home and coming off a bye (sort of), so I expect the Bills to be undervalued.

And Allen on the road has been automatic. In his 17 starts as a visitor, Allen is 10-3-2 against the spread (ATS), good for a 41.5% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).



A high-end QB1 in season-long leagues, Allen is a solid candidate for cash games and guaranteed prize pools in DFS.

Allen is the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales and Raybon Models for FanDuel.

Salaries: $7,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel

Lamar Jackson: Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 51 Over/Under

The Bengals are No. 4 with a devious 66.6 PFF coverage grade, but I think they aren’t nearly as good as that number suggests.

In Week 1 they faced a talent-limited Tyrod Taylor. In Week 2, a scheme-restrained Baker Mayfield. Week 3, a receiver-deficient Carson Wentz. Most pass defenses would have looked against those quarterbacks to open the year.

In Week 4, though, Gardner Minshew went off for 351-2-1 passing and 2-9-0 rushing against the Bengals. They can be exploited.

And the Bengals are dealing with a couple key injuries. Pro-Bowl defensive tackle Geno Atkins (shoulder) is yet to play this year, and slot corner Mackensie Alexander (ribs/hamstring) missed Week 4 and is uncertain for Week 5.

In Alexander’s absence, the Bengals shifted perimeter corner Darius Phillips to the slot and started backup LeShaun Sims on the outside, where he predictably allowed 8-107-1 receiving on 10 targets.

While we targeted him with the wrong wide receiver last week …

… we won’t make that mistake this week. On the perimeter, Sims is slated to match up most with playmaking No. 1 wide receiver Marquise Brown, who has the potential to go absolutely off.

Hollywood could gift 150 yards and two touchdowns to Jackson all on his own. For tournaments, use our Lineup Builder to stack Jackson with his top receiver.

In full disclosure, I’m betting against the Ravens this week: 13.5 points is a big number to cover, and the Bengals intrigue me for a couple of reasons.

First, I have this theory: Early in the year, when divisional opponents tend to face each other for the first time, road dogs have an undeniable edge relative to the market. Later in the year, when divisional rivals are more familiar with each other and their markets are more efficient, road dogs are disadvantaged when they meet for their rematch.

At least that’s my theory, and it’s born out by the regular-season numbers (via Bet Labs):

  • Divisional Road Dogs (Sep. – Nov.): 354-280-23 ATS | 8.8% ROI
  • Divisional Road Dogs (Dec. – Jan.): 186-194-10 ATS | -4.6% ROI

Still in the early days of October, the Bengals are in the sweet spot of this trend.



Additionally, as great as the Ravens are, opponents are actually 10-4 ATS (38.3% ROI) against them when Jackson is a home favorite. You can bet on this game at DraftKings.

But even though I’m betting against the Ravens, I’m fully on Jackson this week.

Even though Jackson hasn’t quite performed to his 2019 MVP level, he has still been good this year.

  • Week 1 (vs. CLE): 27.5 fantasy points | 275-3-0 passing | 7-45-0 rushing
  • Week 2 (at HOU): 17.6 fantasy points | 204-1-0 passing | 16-54-0 rushing
  • Week 3 (vs. KC): 14.2 fantasy points | 97-1-0 passing | 9-83-0 rushing
  • Week 4 (at WAS): 25.0 fantasy points | 193-2-1 passing | 7-53-1 rushing

In not one game since becoming a starter in Week 11 of 2018 has Jackson been anything less than a fantasy QB2.

In 73% of his starts, Jackson has been a fantasy QB1. That number is incredibly elite. With his rushing ability, Jackson has an unrivaled ceiling/floor combination.

In his two games against the division rival Bengals last year, Jackson famously dominated.

  • Week 6 (vs. CIN): 30.6 fantasy points | 236-0-0 passing | 19-152-1 rushing
  • Week 10 (at CIN): 33.4 fantasy points | 223-3-0 passing | 7-65-1 rushing

In case you forgot what happened last time Jackson faced the Bengals …

… Jackson had his MVP moment. There will likely be similar moments this weekend. Since he entered the league in 2018, no quarterback has been more productive than Jackson as a favorite with his average of 25.6 fantasy points across 22 games.

A locked-in season-long QB1, Jackson is an intriguing pay-up DFS tournament play.

Jackson is the No. 1 quarterback in the Koerner and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he leads the position with his ceiling projection and 75% Bargain Rating.

Salaries: $7,900 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel

Deshaun Watson: Houston Texans (-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 54 O/U

Free at last Watson is from general manager, head coach, sometime offensive play caller and eternal franchise destroyer Bill O’Brien. Tomorrow starts today.

Without question, Watson has had a subpar start to the season.

  • Week 1 (at KC): 20.8 fantasy points | 253-1-1 passing | 6-27-1 rushing
  • Week 2 (vs. BAL): 14.7 fantasy points | 275-1-1 passing | 5-17-0 rushing
  • Week 3 (at PIT): 17.1 fantasy points | 264-2-1 passing | 1-5-0 rushing
  • Week 4 (vs. MIN): 20.9 fantasy points | 300-2-0 passing | 5-9-0 rushing

Given his 2020 production, it would be natural to assume that Watson terribly misses former No. 1 wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, whom the team traded away this offseason.

And the splits do show that Watson without Hopkins has underperformed, scoring 3.24 fewer fantasy points per game (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

But as I pointed out in last week’s quarterback breakdown, if you look closer at the numbers, especially the passing numbers, they’re not bad. If you compare Watson’s four Hopkins-less games this year with his 38 Hopkins-blessed regular-season games in 2017-19, you’ll see that Watson has attempted and completed a similar number of passes and thrown a similar number of interceptions.

He has even been more efficient on a per-attempt basis (8.61 vs. 8.1), and that’s despite playing against the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers in Weeks 1-3.

The problem for Watson is that without Hopkins he has thrown fewer touchdowns (1.87 vs. 1.5) and rushed for fewer yards (32.5 vs. 14.5) — but that might have more to do with his early 2020 schedule than with Hopkins’ absence.

Based on Watson’s intact (and even improved) per-attempt efficiency, the loss of Hopkins seems to have been counterbalanced collectively by the offseason additions of wide receivers Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb and the (relative) sustained health of wide receiver Will Fuller.

Despite losing Hopkins, and despite losing every game he has played this season, Watson has managed to maintain his passing efficiency — and that suggests he should be able to put up fantasy points in good matchups.

And Watson had a good matchup against the Jaguars. Actually, it’s not just good. It’s a full-on Ron Burgundy “I mean, that thing is good” type of matchup.

The season is still young, but the Jags are dead last with a 43.5% pass-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). They are bad. Badder than George Thorogood’s “Bad to the Bone.” Yes, “badder.” They are so bad that I didn’t feel I could properly convey their atrociousness without concurrently breaking language.

In all four games this year, the Jags have allowed opposing quarterbacks either to throw for 300-plus yards passing or to score three-plus total touchdowns.

On top of that, the Jags are injured. No. 1 cornerback C.J. Henderson (shoulder), slot cornerback D.J. Hayden (hamstring) and off-ball linebacker Myles Jack (ankle) all exited Week 4 early with injuries and are uncertain for Week 5.

A mid-range season-long QB1, Watson is a viable DFS play in all formats.

Watson is the No. 1 quarterback in the CSURAM88, Levitan and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel. For good measure he’s also the top option in the Bales Model for DraftKings.

Salaries: $6,900 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel

Matt Ryan: Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers, 53.5 O/U

It’s hard to know what to say about Ryan. Well, actually, it’s not.

If that were his blurb every week, that would probably be enough.

Since his 2016 MVP season, Ryan has an NFL-high 30 games with 300-plus passing yards, and he has been a fantasy QB1 in 58% of his starts, which is a high number for a guy with nonexistent rushing ability.

And in his two-plus years with wide receiver Calvin Ridley, that number has bumped up to 66%.

I imagine that Ryan’s projection will be subject to change based on what we see in this week’s injury reports. No. 1 wide receiver Julio Jones (hamstring) missed Week 3 and exited Week 4 early. I’m already assuming that he won’t play this week.

Oddly, that might not matter. I don’t want to pretend that Jones isn’t important to the Falcons offense, but since 2014 (when Jones had his first of six straight seasons of 1,350-plus yards), Ryan’s splits with and without Jones have been negligible.

One shouldn’t read too much into a five-game sample, and it goes without saying that having Jones is better than not having him — but I think these splits suggest that Ryan can still produce even without his No. 1 option, especially as long as wide receiver Calvin Ridley (hamstring) is healthy.

But we don’t know for sure if Ridley is. He was highly questionable to play on Monday Night Football last week, and against the Packers he had zero receptions on five targets.

If Ridley pops up on this week’s injury reports and looks uncertain for the weekend, I’ll likely avoid Ryan. If, however, Ridley practices fully by Friday, then Ryan will be in consideration.

Even though the Falcons are favored, I expect Ryan to have something of a pass-heavy game script: Underdog opponents are an A-graded 33-18 ATS (25.5% ROI) against Falcons head coach Dan Quinn.



Frankly, I can’t imagine living in the world and not betting against the 0-4 Falcons this weekend. You can bet on this game at FanDuel. Ryan will likely need to give the team everything he has to get the win, and that could result in a big passing day.

Overall, the matchup is favorable. The Panthers are No. 26 with a 17.3% pass-defense DVOA. Last week, they allowed Kyler Murray to throw three touchdowns. The week before that, rookie Justin Herbert threw for 300-plus yards in just his second NFL start.

Even without Jones, Ryan should produce against the Panthers.

A low-end QB1 with upside in season-long leagues, Ryan is a mid-range tournament play in DFS, especially on DraftKings, where he has the No. 10 quarterback salary but the No. 4 ceiling projection.

Ryan is the top option in the Koerner and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high seven Pro Trends.

Salaries: $6,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel

Daniel Jones: New York Giants (+10) at Dallas Cowboys, 54 O/U

I have some strong opinions on this game.

I simply do not like Jones in this spot. But I’m also a biased self-loathing Cowboys fan, and almost every sharp fantasy player I’ve talked to is on Jones this week, so I’m probably wrong.

I certainly see his potential.

The Cowboys are No. 30 with a 43.6 PFF coverage grade, and they are without No. 1 cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring, IR), all-purpose rotational corner Anthony Brown (ribs, IR) and linebackers Leighton Vander Esch (collarbone, IR) and Sean Lee (groin, IR).

This year, quarterbacks are No. 4 against the Cowboys with 22.8 fantasy points per game on 1,028-11-1 passing and 17-59-0 rushing. They are vulnerable.

And Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett knows the Cowboys defensive players from his years with the team as head coach. In theory, this should give Garrett a play-calling edge in this #RevengeGame, which should benefit Jones.

Here’s the problem: The 0-4 Giants are bad. They’re dead last with 11.8 points per game. Garrett’s offense is incredibly unimaginative — and the Cowboys defenders saw it up close in practice for over a decade. If any group of guys would have an idea about how to stop this offense, it’s this one.

Jones had some fantastic peak performances as a rookie last year.

But as we all know, 2020 ain’t 2019.

Jones has magnificently underwhelmed in his second season.

  • Week 1 (vs. PIT): 17.4 fantasy points | 279-2-2 passing | 4-22-0 rushing
  • Week 2 (at CHI): 7.7 fantasy points | 241-0-1 passing | 3-21-0 rushing
  • Week 3 (vs. SF): 8.1 fantasy points | 179-0-1 passing | 5-49-0 rushing
  • Week 4 (at LAR): 10.1 fantasy points | 190-0-1 passing | 6-45-0 rushing

But it could be worse: I mean, at least he can still throw the ball to running back Saquon Barkley (knee, IR) and wide receiver Sterling Shepard (toe, IR). As long as he has those guys on the field, he’ll be JUST FINE.

And don’t forget about Garrett. At least he still has Garrett calling plays. Jones would look totally LOST if not for Garrett.

Back to reality: Thanks to his matchup, Jones is a QB2 with QB1 upside in season-long leagues. And in DFS, a lot of smart people will probably go with him in cash games, especially on DraftKings, where he has the No. 19 quarterback salary but the No. 12 median projection.

With the savings he provides, Jones certainly makes sense in an old-school pay-down cash-game roster construction.

But his basement-level floor terrifies me, and because of that I think of him as a GPP-only play, at least presently. By the weekend, I will probably have been talked into rostering him in cash: The echo chamber is strong, and I am famous for my humility. But right now, with a totally clear mind, I can see that Jones in cash is a risk-seeking idea. That everyone else seems to see him differently makes me think there’s a 1% chance I am currently in an episode of The Twilight Zone.

Jones is the No. 1 quarterback in the Jennings, Levitan, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 54% Bargain Rating.

Salaries: $5,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some of the quarterbacks I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (56.5 O/U): With a 1,134-11-0 passing and 18-108-1 rushing performance to date, Mahomes in 2020 is still as good as ever. The Chiefs have a slate-high 34.75-point implied Vegas total, and the Raiders are No. 31 with a 40.4 PFF coverage grade. Salaries: $7,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (-10) vs. New York Giants (54 O/U): No. 1 at the position with 36.3 fantasy points and 422.5 yards passing per game, Prescott is having himself a season. He leads the slate with his median and floor projections, and he is very much on the positive side of his splits as a home favorite.

Salaries: $7,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (43.5 O/U): The Steelers are coming off a bye (of sorts), and No. 1 wide receiver Diontae Johnson (concussion) has been cleared to return. You probably don’t need me to tell you about Roethlisberger’s legendary home/away splits.

Salaries: $6,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel

Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons (43.5 O/U): Opposing quarterbacks are No. 1 in the league against the Falcons with 32.5 fantasy points per game on 1,415-13-2 passing and 14-93-3 rushing. As if you need more reasons to bet against the Falcons, Bridgewater is 19-5 ATS (54.9% ROI) as an underdog.



You can bet on this game at William Hill. Salaries: $5,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (Total Off Board): It’s not official yet that Garoppolo (ankle) will return this week, which is why sportsbooks haven’t posted a total, but we tentatively expect him to play. The Dolphins are No. 32 with a decaying 33.4 PFF coverage grade. Salaries: $5,500 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (+12.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (56.5 O/U): Rather quietly, Carr is pacing for career-best numbers with his 1,095-8-0 passing line. He is No. 7 in the league with an 8.7 AY/A and should benefit from a pass-heavy game script in a high-scoring contest. Salaries: $5,300 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel



Matthew Freedman is 648-519-26 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Daniel Jones and Leonard Floyd
Photo credit: Maxx Wolfson

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The Week 5 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 11, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight the quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 5 fantasy football rankings (as of Wednesday morning).

  • Josh Allen: No. 4
  • Lamar Jackson: No. 5
  • Deshaun Watson: No. 7
  • Matt Ryan: No. 8
  • Daniel Jones: No. 15

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Josh Allen: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans, Off the Board

The NFL postponed the Titans game last week because of a COVID-19 outbreak on the team, but this week’s game is still scheduled to play.

If the football gods are merciful, we will see Allen play this weekend.

Through the first month of the season, Allen has been the No. 2 fantasy quarterback, scoring no fewer than three total touchdowns in each game.

  • Week 1 (vs. NYJ): 28.2 fantasy points | 312-2-0 passing | 14-57-1 rushing
  • Week 2 (at MIA): 34.5 fantasy points | 415-4-0 passing | 4-19-0 rushing
  • Week 3 (vs. LAR): 31.2 fantasy points | 311-4-0 passing | 4-8-1 rushing
  • Week 4 (at LV): 25.4 fantasy points | 288-2-0 passing | 3-minus 1-1 rushing

Allen has an elite 10.3 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), partially because his completion rate has jumped up to 70.9%.

We’re talking about a guy who had a completion rate of just 49.0% at Reedley Community College in 2014: I unfavorably compared him to Jake Locker before the 2018 draft.

And in his first two NFL seasons, he looked like Locker, completing just 56.3% of his passes.

This year, though, with the offseason addition of No. 1 wide receiver Stefon Diggs, Allen has elevated himself to an MVP-caliber level. And it’s not as if his performance has come from nowhere. Unlikely though it was, it was also imaginable. Foreseeable.

Despite his struggles, Allen has always been a strong fantasy producer. After returning to action from an elbow injury that sidelined him for over a month, Allen was the No. 2 fantasy quarterback with 26.6 points per game for the final six weeks of his rookie campaign (per RotoViz NFL Fantasy Summary).

In his second season, Allen had only one game in which he finished as anything less than a fantasy QB2 — and that was against the Ravens and their top-tier pass defense (excluding his partial Week 17, per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

Allen and the Bills have been steadily building to this brilliant 2020 season for the past two years. What we’ve seen out of Allen in Weeks 1-4 is representative of who he is now as a player.

What makes Allen so investable in fantasy is his Konami Code rushing ability and specifically his goal-line usage, and although he has not run this year as much as he did last year, he’s still running enough and getting the carries that matter (per game, per Player Profiler).

  • 2019 (16 games): 6.8 carries (No. 2) | 1.4 red-zone carries (No. 2)
  • 2020 (four games): 6.2 carries (No. 4) | 1.8 red-zone carries (No. 2)

As great as so many other quarterbacks have been in this season of inflated scoring, Allen is No. 1 at the position with 0.78 fantasy points per drop back (per Pro Football Focus).

Yo, Nelly Furtado, that’s a spicy meatball. (Note to editor: Don’t you dare cut this out.)

Because of their COVID-19 situation, the Titans have been unable to practice or access their facilities in over a week. On top of that, they are without No. 1 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (knee, IR) and perhaps slot cornerback Chris Jackson (hamstring), who missed Week 3.

The Titans aren’t bad against the pass, ranking No. 11 with a 61.0 PFF coverage grade, but given the circumstances, they’re unlikely to present much of a problem to Allen.

Additionally, Allen is hitting the sweet spot of his career splits (I’m assuming the Bills will be favored). Since he entered the league in 2018, no quarterback has exceeded expectations as a road favorite more than Allen (excluding players with just a couple such starts, per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

Whenever this game hits the board, I will almost certainly bet on the Bills. Bookmakers won’t be able to hang too high of a line because the Titans are 3-0, at home and coming off a bye (sort of), so I expect the Bills to be undervalued.

And Allen on the road has been automatic. In his 17 starts as a visitor, Allen is 10-3-2 against the spread (ATS), good for a 41.5% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).



A high-end QB1 in season-long leagues, Allen is a solid candidate for cash games and guaranteed prize pools in DFS.

Allen is the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales and Raybon Models for FanDuel.

Salaries: $7,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel

Lamar Jackson: Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 51 Over/Under

The Bengals are No. 4 with a devious 66.6 PFF coverage grade, but I think they aren’t nearly as good as that number suggests.

In Week 1 they faced a talent-limited Tyrod Taylor. In Week 2, a scheme-restrained Baker Mayfield. Week 3, a receiver-deficient Carson Wentz. Most pass defenses would have looked against those quarterbacks to open the year.

In Week 4, though, Gardner Minshew went off for 351-2-1 passing and 2-9-0 rushing against the Bengals. They can be exploited.

And the Bengals are dealing with a couple key injuries. Pro-Bowl defensive tackle Geno Atkins (shoulder) is yet to play this year, and slot corner Mackensie Alexander (ribs/hamstring) missed Week 4 and is uncertain for Week 5.

In Alexander’s absence, the Bengals shifted perimeter corner Darius Phillips to the slot and started backup LeShaun Sims on the outside, where he predictably allowed 8-107-1 receiving on 10 targets.

While we targeted him with the wrong wide receiver last week …

… we won’t make that mistake this week. On the perimeter, Sims is slated to match up most with playmaking No. 1 wide receiver Marquise Brown, who has the potential to go absolutely off.

Hollywood could gift 150 yards and two touchdowns to Jackson all on his own. For tournaments, use our Lineup Builder to stack Jackson with his top receiver.

In full disclosure, I’m betting against the Ravens this week: 13.5 points is a big number to cover, and the Bengals intrigue me for a couple of reasons.

First, I have this theory: Early in the year, when divisional opponents tend to face each other for the first time, road dogs have an undeniable edge relative to the market. Later in the year, when divisional rivals are more familiar with each other and their markets are more efficient, road dogs are disadvantaged when they meet for their rematch.

At least that’s my theory, and it’s born out by the regular-season numbers (via Bet Labs):

  • Divisional Road Dogs (Sep. – Nov.): 354-280-23 ATS | 8.8% ROI
  • Divisional Road Dogs (Dec. – Jan.): 186-194-10 ATS | -4.6% ROI

Still in the early days of October, the Bengals are in the sweet spot of this trend.



Additionally, as great as the Ravens are, opponents are actually 10-4 ATS (38.3% ROI) against them when Jackson is a home favorite. You can bet on this game at DraftKings.

But even though I’m betting against the Ravens, I’m fully on Jackson this week.

Even though Jackson hasn’t quite performed to his 2019 MVP level, he has still been good this year.

  • Week 1 (vs. CLE): 27.5 fantasy points | 275-3-0 passing | 7-45-0 rushing
  • Week 2 (at HOU): 17.6 fantasy points | 204-1-0 passing | 16-54-0 rushing
  • Week 3 (vs. KC): 14.2 fantasy points | 97-1-0 passing | 9-83-0 rushing
  • Week 4 (at WAS): 25.0 fantasy points | 193-2-1 passing | 7-53-1 rushing

In not one game since becoming a starter in Week 11 of 2018 has Jackson been anything less than a fantasy QB2.

In 73% of his starts, Jackson has been a fantasy QB1. That number is incredibly elite. With his rushing ability, Jackson has an unrivaled ceiling/floor combination.

In his two games against the division rival Bengals last year, Jackson famously dominated.

  • Week 6 (vs. CIN): 30.6 fantasy points | 236-0-0 passing | 19-152-1 rushing
  • Week 10 (at CIN): 33.4 fantasy points | 223-3-0 passing | 7-65-1 rushing

In case you forgot what happened last time Jackson faced the Bengals …

… Jackson had his MVP moment. There will likely be similar moments this weekend. Since he entered the league in 2018, no quarterback has been more productive than Jackson as a favorite with his average of 25.6 fantasy points across 22 games.

A locked-in season-long QB1, Jackson is an intriguing pay-up DFS tournament play.

Jackson is the No. 1 quarterback in the Koerner and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he leads the position with his ceiling projection and 75% Bargain Rating.

Salaries: $7,900 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel

Deshaun Watson: Houston Texans (-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 54 O/U

Free at last Watson is from general manager, head coach, sometime offensive play caller and eternal franchise destroyer Bill O’Brien. Tomorrow starts today.

Without question, Watson has had a subpar start to the season.

  • Week 1 (at KC): 20.8 fantasy points | 253-1-1 passing | 6-27-1 rushing
  • Week 2 (vs. BAL): 14.7 fantasy points | 275-1-1 passing | 5-17-0 rushing
  • Week 3 (at PIT): 17.1 fantasy points | 264-2-1 passing | 1-5-0 rushing
  • Week 4 (vs. MIN): 20.9 fantasy points | 300-2-0 passing | 5-9-0 rushing

Given his 2020 production, it would be natural to assume that Watson terribly misses former No. 1 wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, whom the team traded away this offseason.

And the splits do show that Watson without Hopkins has underperformed, scoring 3.24 fewer fantasy points per game (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

But as I pointed out in last week’s quarterback breakdown, if you look closer at the numbers, especially the passing numbers, they’re not bad. If you compare Watson’s four Hopkins-less games this year with his 38 Hopkins-blessed regular-season games in 2017-19, you’ll see that Watson has attempted and completed a similar number of passes and thrown a similar number of interceptions.

He has even been more efficient on a per-attempt basis (8.61 vs. 8.1), and that’s despite playing against the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers in Weeks 1-3.

The problem for Watson is that without Hopkins he has thrown fewer touchdowns (1.87 vs. 1.5) and rushed for fewer yards (32.5 vs. 14.5) — but that might have more to do with his early 2020 schedule than with Hopkins’ absence.

Based on Watson’s intact (and even improved) per-attempt efficiency, the loss of Hopkins seems to have been counterbalanced collectively by the offseason additions of wide receivers Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb and the (relative) sustained health of wide receiver Will Fuller.

Despite losing Hopkins, and despite losing every game he has played this season, Watson has managed to maintain his passing efficiency — and that suggests he should be able to put up fantasy points in good matchups.

And Watson had a good matchup against the Jaguars. Actually, it’s not just good. It’s a full-on Ron Burgundy “I mean, that thing is good” type of matchup.

The season is still young, but the Jags are dead last with a 43.5% pass-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). They are bad. Badder than George Thorogood’s “Bad to the Bone.” Yes, “badder.” They are so bad that I didn’t feel I could properly convey their atrociousness without concurrently breaking language.

In all four games this year, the Jags have allowed opposing quarterbacks either to throw for 300-plus yards passing or to score three-plus total touchdowns.

On top of that, the Jags are injured. No. 1 cornerback C.J. Henderson (shoulder), slot cornerback D.J. Hayden (hamstring) and off-ball linebacker Myles Jack (ankle) all exited Week 4 early with injuries and are uncertain for Week 5.

A mid-range season-long QB1, Watson is a viable DFS play in all formats.

Watson is the No. 1 quarterback in the CSURAM88, Levitan and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel. For good measure he’s also the top option in the Bales Model for DraftKings.

Salaries: $6,900 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel

Matt Ryan: Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers, 53.5 O/U

It’s hard to know what to say about Ryan. Well, actually, it’s not.

If that were his blurb every week, that would probably be enough.

Since his 2016 MVP season, Ryan has an NFL-high 30 games with 300-plus passing yards, and he has been a fantasy QB1 in 58% of his starts, which is a high number for a guy with nonexistent rushing ability.

And in his two-plus years with wide receiver Calvin Ridley, that number has bumped up to 66%.

I imagine that Ryan’s projection will be subject to change based on what we see in this week’s injury reports. No. 1 wide receiver Julio Jones (hamstring) missed Week 3 and exited Week 4 early. I’m already assuming that he won’t play this week.

Oddly, that might not matter. I don’t want to pretend that Jones isn’t important to the Falcons offense, but since 2014 (when Jones had his first of six straight seasons of 1,350-plus yards), Ryan’s splits with and without Jones have been negligible.

One shouldn’t read too much into a five-game sample, and it goes without saying that having Jones is better than not having him — but I think these splits suggest that Ryan can still produce even without his No. 1 option, especially as long as wide receiver Calvin Ridley (hamstring) is healthy.

But we don’t know for sure if Ridley is. He was highly questionable to play on Monday Night Football last week, and against the Packers he had zero receptions on five targets.

If Ridley pops up on this week’s injury reports and looks uncertain for the weekend, I’ll likely avoid Ryan. If, however, Ridley practices fully by Friday, then Ryan will be in consideration.

Even though the Falcons are favored, I expect Ryan to have something of a pass-heavy game script: Underdog opponents are an A-graded 33-18 ATS (25.5% ROI) against Falcons head coach Dan Quinn.



Frankly, I can’t imagine living in the world and not betting against the 0-4 Falcons this weekend. You can bet on this game at FanDuel. Ryan will likely need to give the team everything he has to get the win, and that could result in a big passing day.

Overall, the matchup is favorable. The Panthers are No. 26 with a 17.3% pass-defense DVOA. Last week, they allowed Kyler Murray to throw three touchdowns. The week before that, rookie Justin Herbert threw for 300-plus yards in just his second NFL start.

Even without Jones, Ryan should produce against the Panthers.

A low-end QB1 with upside in season-long leagues, Ryan is a mid-range tournament play in DFS, especially on DraftKings, where he has the No. 10 quarterback salary but the No. 4 ceiling projection.

Ryan is the top option in the Koerner and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high seven Pro Trends.

Salaries: $6,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel

Daniel Jones: New York Giants (+10) at Dallas Cowboys, 54 O/U

I have some strong opinions on this game.

I simply do not like Jones in this spot. But I’m also a biased self-loathing Cowboys fan, and almost every sharp fantasy player I’ve talked to is on Jones this week, so I’m probably wrong.

I certainly see his potential.

The Cowboys are No. 30 with a 43.6 PFF coverage grade, and they are without No. 1 cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring, IR), all-purpose rotational corner Anthony Brown (ribs, IR) and linebackers Leighton Vander Esch (collarbone, IR) and Sean Lee (groin, IR).

This year, quarterbacks are No. 4 against the Cowboys with 22.8 fantasy points per game on 1,028-11-1 passing and 17-59-0 rushing. They are vulnerable.

And Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett knows the Cowboys defensive players from his years with the team as head coach. In theory, this should give Garrett a play-calling edge in this #RevengeGame, which should benefit Jones.

Here’s the problem: The 0-4 Giants are bad. They’re dead last with 11.8 points per game. Garrett’s offense is incredibly unimaginative — and the Cowboys defenders saw it up close in practice for over a decade. If any group of guys would have an idea about how to stop this offense, it’s this one.

Jones had some fantastic peak performances as a rookie last year.

But as we all know, 2020 ain’t 2019.

Jones has magnificently underwhelmed in his second season.

  • Week 1 (vs. PIT): 17.4 fantasy points | 279-2-2 passing | 4-22-0 rushing
  • Week 2 (at CHI): 7.7 fantasy points | 241-0-1 passing | 3-21-0 rushing
  • Week 3 (vs. SF): 8.1 fantasy points | 179-0-1 passing | 5-49-0 rushing
  • Week 4 (at LAR): 10.1 fantasy points | 190-0-1 passing | 6-45-0 rushing

But it could be worse: I mean, at least he can still throw the ball to running back Saquon Barkley (knee, IR) and wide receiver Sterling Shepard (toe, IR). As long as he has those guys on the field, he’ll be JUST FINE.

And don’t forget about Garrett. At least he still has Garrett calling plays. Jones would look totally LOST if not for Garrett.

Back to reality: Thanks to his matchup, Jones is a QB2 with QB1 upside in season-long leagues. And in DFS, a lot of smart people will probably go with him in cash games, especially on DraftKings, where he has the No. 19 quarterback salary but the No. 12 median projection.

With the savings he provides, Jones certainly makes sense in an old-school pay-down cash-game roster construction.

But his basement-level floor terrifies me, and because of that I think of him as a GPP-only play, at least presently. By the weekend, I will probably have been talked into rostering him in cash: The echo chamber is strong, and I am famous for my humility. But right now, with a totally clear mind, I can see that Jones in cash is a risk-seeking idea. That everyone else seems to see him differently makes me think there’s a 1% chance I am currently in an episode of The Twilight Zone.

Jones is the No. 1 quarterback in the Jennings, Levitan, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 54% Bargain Rating.

Salaries: $5,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some of the quarterbacks I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (56.5 O/U): With a 1,134-11-0 passing and 18-108-1 rushing performance to date, Mahomes in 2020 is still as good as ever. The Chiefs have a slate-high 34.75-point implied Vegas total, and the Raiders are No. 31 with a 40.4 PFF coverage grade. Salaries: $7,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (-10) vs. New York Giants (54 O/U): No. 1 at the position with 36.3 fantasy points and 422.5 yards passing per game, Prescott is having himself a season. He leads the slate with his median and floor projections, and he is very much on the positive side of his splits as a home favorite.

Salaries: $7,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (43.5 O/U): The Steelers are coming off a bye (of sorts), and No. 1 wide receiver Diontae Johnson (concussion) has been cleared to return. You probably don’t need me to tell you about Roethlisberger’s legendary home/away splits.

Salaries: $6,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel

Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons (43.5 O/U): Opposing quarterbacks are No. 1 in the league against the Falcons with 32.5 fantasy points per game on 1,415-13-2 passing and 14-93-3 rushing. As if you need more reasons to bet against the Falcons, Bridgewater is 19-5 ATS (54.9% ROI) as an underdog.



You can bet on this game at William Hill. Salaries: $5,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (Total Off Board): It’s not official yet that Garoppolo (ankle) will return this week, which is why sportsbooks haven’t posted a total, but we tentatively expect him to play. The Dolphins are No. 32 with a decaying 33.4 PFF coverage grade. Salaries: $5,500 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (+12.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (56.5 O/U): Rather quietly, Carr is pacing for career-best numbers with his 1,095-8-0 passing line. He is No. 7 in the league with an 8.7 AY/A and should benefit from a pass-heavy game script in a high-scoring contest. Salaries: $5,300 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel



Matthew Freedman is 648-519-26 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Daniel Jones and Leonard Floyd
Photo credit: Maxx Wolfson

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About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.