Wide receivers are the backbone of your NFL DFS lineups. It’s a spot where you’ll need massive production if you’re going to take down a GPP, but it’s also a spot where you can save money on occasion. Some of the best values in a given week are likely to be found at the receiver position.
In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Rashee Rice ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
The first three weeks of the season have represented a changing of the guard in Kansas City. Travis Kelce – the long-standing No. 1 pass-catcher for the Chiefs – has managed just eight catches, 69 yards, and zero touchdowns in three games.
Instead, Rice has emerged as Patrick Mahomes’ top target. He’s racked up a 34% target share, which is the third-highest mark in the entire league. Only Malik Nabers (39%) and Cooper Kupp (36%) have been better.
All those looks from Mahomes have unsurprisingly resulted in some big fantasy totals. He’s posted at least 100 yards or a touchdown in all three games, and he managed to achieve both feats last week. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all three contests, and he’s the No. 6 receiver in terms of PPR points per game.
Rice has been priced up to a fair point on FanDuel, but he remains a massive value at just $7,300 on DraftKings. His salary comes with a 71% Bargain Rating, and he’s second at the position in projected Plus/Minus.
Diontae Johnson ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
While Rice is a better option on DraftKings, Johnson stands out as an elite target across the industry. The Panthers made the switch to Andy Dalton in Week 3, and it paid immediate dividends. The offense racked up 36 points and 437 yards of total offense, and the passing game accounted for the majority of it.
Johnson was acquired by the Panthers this offseason to serve as their top target, and he did just that with Dalton. He racked up 38% of the team’s targets and 59% of their air yards, and he found the end zone for the first time this season. His 29.2 DraftKings points made him the fourth-highest-scoring receiver for the week.
Johnson could be looking at another monster workload in Week 4. The team lost Adam Thielen to an injury vs. the Raiders, and the Panthers have an uninspiring group of pass-catchers behind him.
His matchup vs. the Bengals is also a good one. Cincinnati has been shredded through the first three weeks, ranking 30th in EPA per play defensively. They’ve been a bottom-five unit against the run and the pass, so the Panthers should find more offensive success in this spot.
Nico Collins ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
The injuries continue to pile up for the Texans. The team is already without their top two running backs in Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce, and now, it seems unlikely that Tank Dell will be in the lineup in Week 4. He suffered bruised ribs last week vs. the Vikings, and he’s yet to return to practice.
Dell has commanded a healthy 17% target share this season, so his absence is going to create some additional opportunities for the rest of the roster.
Collins figures to be the biggest beneficiary. He’s the team’s No. 1 pass catcher, racking up 26% of their targets and 43% of their air yards. Collins had some monster performances with Dell out of the lineup last season, including nine catches for 195 yards and a touchdown in a must-win Week 18 game vs. the Colts. Collins will have to contend with Stefon Diggs for targets this year, but there should be enough to go around for the both of them.
The Jaguars don’t have a bad defense on paper, but they’re merely 30th in pass defense EPA through three weeks. They were obliterated by Josh Allen and the Bills in Week 3, and they surrendered 29.0 DraftKings points to Tyreek Hill in Week 1. Overall, they’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season.
Jonathan Mingo ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel)
Rounding out your cash lineups with a punt play at WR3 is a popular strategy, and Mingo is worth considering in that role this week. He figures to see the biggest uptick in routes with Thielen out of the lineup. He was up to a 72% route participation in Week 3 after hovering between 55 and 59% in the first two weeks. Overall, he seems locked into the No. 3 role behind Johnson and Xavier Legette.
More routes are a good thing for Mingo, who has been a decent target-earner this season. He’s been targeted on 18% of his routes run, which is the second-highest mark among the team’s receivers. He had four targets last week and five targets in Week 1, and he could be looking at a new career-high vs. the Bengals.
Still, this is more about the lineup construction potential than about Mingo himself. Using Mingo as your WR3 allows you to load up elsewhere, so you don’t need a monster performance. He’s projected for the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, which is enough to put him in punt play consideration.
Try out our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Brandon Aiyuk ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Week 3 was supposed to be “Brandon Aiyuk” week. He was playing without Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, and after securing a huge raise this offseason, it was his time to earn his money. He was the highest-owned receiver in the $20 Millionaire Maker on DraftKings, checking in at 26.4%.
Of course, things didn’t exactly go to plan. Aiyuk finished with just five catches for 48 yards, while Jauan Jennings erupted for 11 catches, 175 yards, and three touchdowns.
Often, the best time to target a player in tournaments is after they just flamed out as chalk. Aiyuk’s situation isn’t going to be vastly different this week, but he should check in with significantly less ownership.
Aiyuk still managed to secure 10 targets last week, so he had plenty of opportunities to make plays. While that still put him behind Jennings’ 12 targets, there’s no guarantee those roles don’t flip in Week 4.
Overall, Aiyuk has the third-highest DraftKings optimal rate at receiver in SimLabs, where he’s simply too cheap at $6,400.
Chris Godwin ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
Godwin and the rest of the Bucs offense came crashing back to reality in Week 3. Despite being favored against the Broncos in Tampa, the team managed just seven points and 223 yards of total offense.
The good news is that Godwin maintained his stranglehold on the team’s top receiver spot. He had a 28% target share in Week 3, his third straight week with a figure of at least 28%. He now sits at 32% for the year, which is tied for the sixth-best mark in football. Godwin has also racked up 37% of the team’s air yards after posting just a 26% mark last season.
The Bucs offense is in a fantastic get-right spot in Week 4. They’re taking on the Eagles, who have been one of the worst defensive teams in football dating back to the middle of last year. They’re 24th in pass defense EPA so far this season, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
The Buccaneers rolled up 32 points on the Eagles in the playoffs last season, and Godwin managed to score a touchdown in that outing. It’s a spot where the whole team could find success.
Stefon Diggs ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
While Collins has been the Texans’ top receiver, Diggs hasn’t been too far behind. He has a 22% target share for the season, and he was at a season-high 28% in Week 3.
The big difference is that Diggs is being used more as a possession receiver around the line of scrimmage. His average depth of target (aDOT) is just 6.0 yards, while Collins is at a much more robust 12.9.
That limits Diggs’ upside a bit on FanDuel, but it helps him on a PPR site like DraftKings. Diggs already has two top-13 finishes in PPR scoring at receiver this season. He’s ultimately projected for less ownership than Collins, which makes him an interesting pivot for tournaments.
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Drake London ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
London has underpriced on FanDuel for most of the season, and Week 4 is no exception. His $6,600 salary comes with a 95% Bargain Rating, and he’s third at the position in projected Plus/Minus. Those figures are honestly good enough to put him in the cash game discussion, but he’s projected for less than 10% ownership vs. the Saints.
London had a disappointing first game of the year, but he’s bounced back with two solid outings over the past two weeks. He’s scored a touchdown in each, and he’s racked up 18 total targets. He’s had a target share of at least 27% in both contests, so he’s operating the way a team’s top pass catcher should.
London will have to navigate a tough matchup this week vs. the Saints, who are sixth in pass defense EPA through the first two weeks. That said, they’ve faced a really favorable schedule. They got to beat up on Bryce Young in Week 1, and they faced an Eagles squad with zero healthy receivers in Week 3. They might not be quite as good as they appear on paper.
Terry McLaurin ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
The Commanders have struggled to fit McLaurin into their offense so far this season. He was majorly unproductive in the first two games of the year, but he did break out with four catches for 100 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. He had a 26% target share in that contest – his second straight game at 26% or better – and he accounted for a ridiculous 70% of their air yards.
The biggest reason to be bullish on McLaurin right now is his offense. The Commanders have looked like a juggernaut this season, ranking second in EPA per play. They haven’t been forced to punt in back-to-back games, and their only drives that haven’t ended in points have been due to kneel-downs. This is a well-oiled machine, which is scary when you consider that their quarterback has made just three professional starts.
The Commanders also draw a juicy matchup this week vs. the Cardinals. This game has the highest total of the week by a wide margin, checking in at 50 points. The Cardinals have also been awful defensively since the start of last year, so it’s another fantastic spot for this offense to keep churning.
Tee Higgins ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
Higgins returned to the Bengals lineup in Week 3, and the team responded with their best offensive showing of the season. It didn’t lead to much production for Higgins – he finished with six targets, three catches, and 39 yards – but the team rattled off 33 points.
Higgins wasn’t particularly limited in his first game of the year, running a route on 95% of the team’s dropbacks. He was also much closer to a big game than people might realize, getting two of the team’s three end-zone targets. Ja’Marr Chase was the guy who actually did most of the scoring, but he had to take his in from a longer way out.
The Bengals’ implied team total of 26.0 is the second-highest mark on the main slate, yet Higgins is projected for single-digit ownership across the industry.
Greg Dortch ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel)
It’s rare that the team with the top implied team total on the slate feels undervalued, but that’s the case with the Cardinals this week. They’re currently implied for 26.75 points against the Commanders, yet no one on the team is expected to be overly chalky. All three of their top receivers are projected for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, as is running back James Conner.
Of the three receivers, Dortch stands out as the most undervalued. He’s very affordable at just $4,300, but he’s posted a solid 19% target share this season. The Cardinals have also given him a carry, so they’re committed to trying to get the ball in his hands each week.
Dortch is currently projected for just 2.5% ownership on DraftKings, but he’s popping up in the optimal lineup more than 5% of the time. That’s good for the fourth-largest discrepancy at the position in SimLabs.
