In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 4 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening):
- Davante Adams (1st)
- Calvin Ridley (9th)
- Amari Cooper (12th)
- Robert Woods (23rd)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Wide Receivers
Davante Adams ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (45.5 total)
Adams is our highest-ranked wide receiver for season-long leagues this week. He’s also a near-unanimous leader of our FanDuel models, where he tops four of them. The case for Adams on FanDuel is fairly simple; he has the highest Median and Ceiling Projections but the third-highest price.
After a disappointing Week 1 in which the Packers failed to score a touchdown, their offense has been clicking. They’ve scored 65 points over two weeks, largely through Adams. He leads the NFL with 34 targets, including a massive 18 targets last week. While he’s “only” fifth in PPR-scoring among wideouts, all the players ahead of him have scored at least three touchdowns, to Davante’s one.
As we know, touchdowns are the highest variance part of fantasy scoring. We can reasonably assume the stickiness of opportunities: targets, air yards, and so on. However, touchdowns are streaky. Last season, Adams scored a touchdown per every 76 receiving yards. That rate is probably unsustainable, with his career mark being around 109 yards/touchdown. This year, he’s scored one touchdown while accumulating 309 yards.
All of which is to say that we can expect some positive regression for Adams. The overall matchup isn’t the best, as evidenced by the Packers’ middling 26-point team total. However, the Steelers aren’t great against the pass, where they rank 23rd in DVOA after three weeks. With their DVOA against the run being much stronger (sixth), the Packers’ best means of attack is through the pass. It also helps some of that touchdown regression I’ve been going on about since running back Aaron Jones has scored five already.
Adams’ price on DraftKings is more appropriate for his role, but he’s a great value on FanDuel.
Amari Cooper ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) Dallas Cowboys (-5) vs Carolina Panthers (50.5 total)
The Cowboys offense is very interesting this week. They’ve performed admirably so far, averaging 30 points per game, good for sixth-best in the league. They’ve also been highly adaptable. In Week 1, against a Bucs team that is much softer against the pass, they attempted a whopping 58 passes. In Weeks 2 and 3, they attacked more on the ground, with only 53 passing attempts between the two games.
It seems like the Cowboys prefer to lean on the talented backfield duo of Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard when they can. That’s why the matchup with Carolina is so interesting — the Panthers are the top-rated defense against both the run and the pass.
This brings us to Cooper. With Michael Gallup sidelined, Cooper and CeeDee Lamb account for over 44% of the Cowboys’ targets and 55% of their air yards. If Prescott and the Cowboys put up points through the air, it’s likely to flow through one of them.
I’m not in the business of trying to pick between the pair. I’ve referenced in the past that the correlation between their scoring is positive, meaning they can certainly be played together. This week, Cooper is a full $700 cheaper on DraftKings, while Lamb is $200 less on FanDuel. If you’re playing them as a one-off piece and not part of a stack, I’d take either guy where they’re cheaper.
Cooper leads three of our Pro Models on DraftKings.
Robert Woods ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs Arizona Cardinals (55 total)
Woods has played second fiddle to Cooper Kupp so far this year. Even so, with a target share over 20% and his cheapest DraftKings salary since 2018, Woods is a strong value.
I referenced his target share above because the real issue for Woods right now is the lack of overall passing from the Rams. Stafford has been hyper-efficient, throwing for a career-best 10.0 yards per attempt. But with the aforementioned Kupp taking such an outsized chunk of Stafford’s production, there hasn’t been much left for Woods.
That could change this week if the Cardinals can push the Rams a bit. Even against Tampa last week, Stafford only needed to throw the ball 38 times, with the Rams controlling the game most of the way. The Cardinals offense, led by Kyler Murray, has a shot at changing that. This game has a slate-leading 55-point total, which has already crept up 1.5 points since lines were posted.
As a reminder, you can always check out our free Vegas tool to track line movement. This can be valuable, as lines generally move up when sharp money comes in on the over. If sharp bettors expect a lot of scoring, it’s a good signal that there will be.
The Cardinals defense is a tough matchup, but the Rams could get it done based on increased volume, even at reduced efficiency. Sooner or later, teams will devote more attention to Kupp, freeing up Woods to have a big week. His price — particularly on DraftKings — where Chris Raybon’s Model has him as the top play — doesn’t adequately account for that chance.
Calvin Ridley ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) Atlanta Falcons (1.5) vs Washington Football Team (48 total)
Ridley has been a major disappointment so far this season. After being drafted as the WR6, he’s outside the top-25 receivers in PPR scoring so far this year. This is starting to be reflected in his price, which is the cheapest it’s been on FanDuel since Week 2 of last season.
The underlying measures are still there for Ridley, though. He’s fourth in the NFL in his share of his team’s air yards and has a solid 25% target share. The efficiency has been the problem, with a disappointing 6.03 yards per target.
Part of this has been due to the play of Matt Ryan, who hasn’t looked good this season. If Ryan is truly washed, it’s going to be a long season for Ridley. There’s nothing he can do to fix that. However, there have been signs of life. Ryan’s yards per attempt have climbed each game this season.
Especially if his rostership stays in the single digits, getting in on a Calvin Ridley breakout week will be a huge edge. Look to roster him on FanDuel, where he’s the only player other than Amari Cooper to lead a Pro Model.
Other Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside
Cooper Kupp ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs Arizona Cardinals (54 total)
I touched on Kupp and the Rams in the Robert Woods section so that I won’t belabor the point here. Kupp is the overall scoring leader, regardless of position, in DraftKings points so far. He leads the next best wideout (Mike Williams) by almost 14 points. He’s priced like it on FanDuel, where he’s $500 more expensive than any other receiver. On DraftKings, he’s third-most expensive. Kupp is second in our Median Projections and still a value on DraftKings.
CeeDee Lamb ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) Dallas Cowboys (-5) vs Carolina Panthers (50.5 total)
Lamb has ever-so-slightly (0.9 points) outproduced Amari Cooper so far this season in FanDuel scoring. He’s playing more of a downfield role, with an average depth-of-target (aDOT) almost two yards deeper than Cooper. With his corresponding lower catch rate, he’s more of a boom-or-bust option.
This also plays better on FanDuel, with the half-point PPR scoring. This is convenient since he’s cheaper over there too.
Tyreek Hill ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (54.5 total)
I could (and essentially do) write the same thing about Hill every week. The explosive Chiefs offense runs through Hill and teammate Travis Kelce, who amount for more than half of the team’s targets. Hill is going to explode for a 40+ point performance (as he did in Week 1) every so often, and tournament lineups that week will have to have him.
Do I know for sure when they’re going to happen? No. Does anybody else? Also no. Hill is the better price-sensitive play on FanDuel this week, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating and is top five in Pts/Sal.
Arizona Cardinals Wide Receivers (4.5) at Los Angeles Rams (54 total)
All of the Cardinals wide receivers are in play this week. All four of their main wideouts have between 15 and 18 targets on the season, so the wealth is being spread around. They’re playing in the second-highest total game against the fastest situation-neutral pace team in the league.
While the Rams defense is solid, ranking 11th in passing DVOA, they aren’t an unbeatable matchup. Especially for the Cardinals and Kyler Murray, who’s the front runner for league MVP this season at +700 odds (BetMGM.) Let’s take a look at a case for each of their wideouts.
Deandre Hopkins ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Hopkins is still the alpha in Arizona, but he’s overpriced for his current role. While things may change, he’s only seen three of Kyler’s 17 red-zone targets and has an underwhelming 9.28-yard aDOT. This was largely the case last season (8.9 aDOT), but he got 10 targets per game then. He’ll likely still post a ceiling game or two, but this Cardinals offense is too spread out to support a single receiver at his price.
Christian Kirk ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
There are currently 18 players in the NFL with an aDOT of at least 15 yards (with at least five targets). Of those players, Christian Kirk leads the group with an 88% catch rate. It’s unlikely that he’s able to keep up both of these numbers together, but it’s still an encouraging sign. He’s finally getting a decent target share in Arizona’s explosive offense and is seeing the most valuable fantasy targets.
Rondale Moore ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
We’re getting a discount on Moore this week, after his two-catch, one-yard performance in Week 3. He still represents a good value for his price, though, with a five target per game role. The Cardinals are scheming him short-area looks, with his average target coming within three yards of the line of scrimmage.
This will lead to some boom-or-bust weeks for Moore, who relies on his yards after the catch to create value. He’s also been the Cardinals punt returner. The odds are good he breaks one for a touchdown at some point this year. This adds an extra layer of value because when he’s paired with the Cardinals defense, you’d count that touchdown twice.
AJ Green ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
After looking absolutely washed, Green has had a resurgence the last two weeks. He had 13.4 DraftKings points in Week 2, then 19.2 last week. He’s tied for Hopkins with the team lead in targets but is seeing a more downfield role. It’s hard to feel confident in the 33-year-old Green, but he’s a solid value, especially on DraftKings, where he has the team’s best Bargain Rating.
